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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 12/21/21 6:58 pm ::: Omicron variant |
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Delta was said to be more contagious than anything besides measles. Now there is talk that Omicron could be as contagious as measles.
Health expert warns omicron could be as transmissible as measles
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“So if children were in a classroom or people go to an event like a wedding or a larger party, it could spread to multiple individuals at the same time. So that's why a more transmissible variant such as omicron is of such great concern |
Omicron is now the dominant U.S. COVID variant. Is it as contagious as measles?
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“Whether or not omicron can be as adept as measles in unbelievable transmissibility remains to be seen,” he wrote in an email. “Omicron is likely aerosolized the same way measles is — small droplets are created that can linger in the air like dandelions — and it will certainly give measles the toughest competition of any SARS CoV2 variant to date.” |
I live in a 6 story building and I can't get outside without going down an interior stairwell or elevator. The idea of it lingering in the air is scary but it seems to be a logical way it would be so much more transmissible than the already very transmissible Delta . So much better to be in a house for a pandemic.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 12/24/21 9:52 pm ::: |
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Omicron wave will crash on US with 60% of people infected by March and 140 MILLION new infections - but 90% will never show symptoms, University of Washington says
Omicron would eventually infect about 60 percent of all Americans
But the majority will show no symptoms and have fewer hospitalizations and deaths compared to previous surges as Omicron is believed to be milder
Daily deaths were predicted to peak at about 2,800 in mid-February
Deaths peaked at around 2277 in April 2020, 3566 in January 2021 and 2024 in September 2021. So 2,800 would make it the 2nd worst wave in terms of deaths.
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Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington updated their COVID-19 model and expect the virus to hit the US hard come January, peaking at 2.8 million new cases a day by January 28. |
Previous daily case averages were around 70,399 in July 2020, 256,226 in January 2021, and 167,589 in September 2021. So 2,800,000 a day would be over 10 times more than the previous peak, or one order of magnitude as the engineers like to say, higher.
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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
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Posted: 12/24/21 10:13 pm ::: |
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I’m certainly not a university of research academics but I think their numbers are extremely conservative. Why would infections be plateaued at 60% after two more long months of Omicron? Unless we finally start to see the effects of herd immunity._________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
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Posted: 12/24/21 10:15 pm ::: |
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Is that really a symptom or might we label that as a feature?_________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 12/24/21 10:36 pm ::: |
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jammerbirdi wrote: |
I’m certainly not a university of research academics but I think their numbers are extremely conservative. Why would infections be plateaued at 60% after two more long months of Omicron? Unless we finally start to see the effects of herd immunity. |
Yeah, seems like they didn't write it correct as they say "60% of people infected by March" and also "eventually infect about 60 percent of all Americans".
I am surprised to see that they say 40% of Americans have been infected with COVID-19 so far. But I can't tell if that 40% is the starting point for the 60% figure or that Omicron is going to infect 60% of Americans on its own:
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'Total infections in the U.S. we forecast are going from about 40 percent of the U.S. having been infected so far, to having in the next two to three months, 60 percent of the U.S. getting infected with Omicron.' |
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3519
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Posted: 12/25/21 12:13 am ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
Omicron wave will crash on US with 60% of people infected by March and 140 MILLION new infections - but 90% will never show symptoms, University of Washington says
Omicron would eventually infect about 60 percent of all Americans
But the majority will show no symptoms and have fewer hospitalizations and deaths compared to previous surges as Omicron is believed to be milder
Daily deaths were predicted to peak at about 2,800 in mid-February
Deaths peaked at around 2277 in April 2020, 3566 in January 2021 and 2024 in September 2021. So 2,800 would make it the 2nd worst wave in terms of deaths.
Quote: |
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington updated their COVID-19 model and expect the virus to hit the US hard come January, peaking at 2.8 million new cases a day by January 28. |
Previous daily case averages were around 70,399 in July 2020, 256,226 in January 2021, and 167,589 in September 2021. So 2,800,000 a day would be over 10 times more than the previous peak, or one order of magnitude as the engineers like to say, higher. |
Bonehead math. Yes, hospitalization rates may be lower for Omicron, but absolute numbers will be much higher. Suppose just 1% of those 2.8M infected daily with Omicron require hospitalization. That's 28,000 new hospitalizations per day, which is 3.5 times our current average, in addition to Delta and flu cases. So most people won’t be that sick, but our healthcare system will be irrevocably broken, and more non-COVID patients won’t get care.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 12/25/21 3:25 am ::: |
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jammerbirdi wrote: |
Is that really a symptom or might we label that as a feature? |
Yeah, really, lol. If that was the only symptom a lot of folks would be tearing off their masks and saying they were not going to get "the jab".
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 12/25/21 12:22 pm ::: |
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FrozenLVFan wrote: |
Bonehead math. Yes, hospitalization rates may be lower for Omicron, but absolute numbers will be much higher. Suppose just 1% of those 2.8M infected daily with Omicron require hospitalization. That's 28,000 new hospitalizations per day, which is 3.5 times our current average, in addition to Delta and flu cases. So most people won’t be that sick, but our healthcare system will be irrevocably broken, and more non-COVID patients won’t get care. |
It does seem quite lacking that they didn't give a figure for hospitalizations But there is a claim that it will be less than Delta (although it doesn't say less of a peak amount):
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Despite the surge, experts believe the new infections will ultimately lead to fewer deaths and hospitalizations than the deadly Delta variant, as Omicron is believed to be a more infectious but less severe variant. |
And there still might be wishful thinking being applied to the early numbers.
This article talks about how people are not getting timely medical care due to the hospitals being full of COVID-19 patients. It mentions an elderly woman with one good eye who had to wait 8 hours for emergency room treatment for an eye infection and ultimately lost sight in that eye. And the hospital workers are really burned out as well from 20 months of overload and death.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/-never-going-away-covid-continues-delay-medical-care-hospitals-nationw-rcna9658
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3519
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Posted: 12/30/21 10:26 pm ::: |
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How about cross-posting that in the COVID Winter 21-21 thread, because it touches on several of the things under discussion there?
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009 Posts: 9019
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Posted: 01/01/22 4:31 pm ::: |
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That's pretty scary.
_________________ "Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw
“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 01/01/22 10:06 pm ::: |
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Omicron Doesn't Infect the Lungs Very Well, Animal Studies Find
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A spate of new studies on lab animals and human tissues are providing the first indication of why the Omicron variant causes milder disease than previous versions of the coronavirus.
In studies on mice and hamsters, Omicron produced less damaging infections, often limited largely to the upper airway: the nose, throat and windpipe. The variant did much less harm to the lungs, where previous variants would often cause scarring and serious breathing difficulty. |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 01/02/22 2:49 pm ::: |
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Now in addition to a concern about overwhelmed hospitals, there is a new concern among governments - that so many workers will be infected with Omicron and either be home sick or home quarantined, that there won’t be enough non-infected workers to support whatever job function they are doing.
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22478 Location: NJ
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Posted: 01/02/22 3:29 pm ::: |
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The amount of fast food places, restaurants, coffee shops and delis in my area that temporarily closed because of staff shortages due to Covid-19 is all too common now.
_________________ LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
Twitter: @TBRBWAY
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3519
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Posted: 01/02/22 3:40 pm ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
Now in addition to a concern about overwhelmed hospitals, there is a new concern among governments - that so many workers will be infected with Omicron and either be home sick or home quarantined, that there won’t be enough non-infected workers to support whatever job function they are doing. |
That's why the quarantine period was shortened to five days...to get people back to work sooner.
And now...
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As the COVID-19 omicron variant surges across the United States, top federal health officials are looking to add a negative test along with its five-day isolation restrictions for asymptomatic Americans who catch the coronavirus, the White House’s top medical adviser said Sunday.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now considering including the negative test as part of its guidance after getting significant “pushback” on its updated recommendations last week.
Under that Dec. 27 guidance, isolation restrictions for people infected with COVID-19 were shortened from 10 days to five days if they are no longer feeling symptoms or running a fever. After that period, they are asked to spend the following five days wearing a mask when around others.
The guidelines have since received criticism from many health professionals for not specifying a negative antigen test as a requirement for leaving isolation. |
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-united-states-anthony-fauci-centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-5f3e45e2f140f94df02267e22c307664
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3519
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 01/04/22 10:01 pm ::: |
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That's good news because the previous week figures made it look like the "parallel viruses" possibility was true. And 410,000 Delta cases (41% of million) in one day would allegedly be worse than if those are mostly Omicron.
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3519
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Posted: 01/05/22 7:10 am ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
That's good news because the previous week figures made it look like the "parallel viruses" possibility was true. And 410,000 Delta cases (41% of million) in one day would allegedly be worse than if those are mostly Omicron. |
Umm, no. We have just as many Delta cases as before, PLUS all the millions of new Omicron cases.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 01/06/22 11:31 pm ::: |
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FrozenLVFan wrote: |
tfan wrote: |
That's good news because the previous week figures made it look like the "parallel viruses" possibility was true. And 410,000 Delta cases (41% of million) in one day would allegedly be worse than if those are mostly Omicron. |
Umm, no. We have just as many Delta cases as before, PLUS all the millions of new Omicron cases. |
Where did you see that? If I apply the CDC percentages to the Worldometers 7-day average cases (for some reason Worldometers still doesn't show a 1 million case day), Delta is declining throughout December as Omicron rises (not necessarily because Omicron is pushing it out).
11/27/2021 Delta 99.1% of 82143 cases = 81404
12/4/2021 Delta 99.2% of 116024 cases = 115096
12/11/2021 Delta 91.7% of 119548 cases = 109626
12/18/2021 Delta 62.6% of 135270 cases = 83326
12/25/2021 Delta 22.8% of 228648 cases = 52132
1/1/2022 Delta 4.6% of 443521 cases = 20402
1/8/2022 Delta 1.7% of ~ 685000 cases = 11645
1/15/2022 Delta 0.5% of 806,131 cases = 4031
1/22/2022 Delta 0.1% of 708120 cases = 708
Last edited by tfan on 01/30/22 11:33 pm; edited 5 times in total |
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009 Posts: 9019
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3519
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9776
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Posted: 01/11/22 1:44 am ::: |
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FrozenLVFan wrote: |
tfan wrote: |
Now in addition to a concern about overwhelmed hospitals, there is a new concern among governments - that so many workers will be infected with Omicron and either be home sick or home quarantined, that there won’t be enough non-infected workers to support whatever job function they are doing. |
That's why the quarantine period was shortened to five days...to get people back to work sooner.
And now...
Quote: |
As the COVID-19 omicron variant surges across the United States, top federal health officials are looking to add a negative test along with its five-day isolation restrictions for asymptomatic Americans who catch the coronavirus, the White House’s top medical adviser said Sunday.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now considering including the negative test as part of its guidance after getting significant “pushback” on its updated recommendations last week.
Under that Dec. 27 guidance, isolation restrictions for people infected with COVID-19 were shortened from 10 days to five days if they are no longer feeling symptoms or running a fever. After that period, they are asked to spend the following five days wearing a mask when around others.
The guidelines have since received criticism from many health professionals for not specifying a negative antigen test as a requirement for leaving isolation. |
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-united-states-anthony-fauci-centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-5f3e45e2f140f94df02267e22c307664 |
California will allow some health workers with COVID-19 to continue working. One top nurse says it could put patients in 'grave danger.'
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