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pasteurize
Joined: 07 Oct 2008 Posts: 623 Location: NY
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Posted: 10/27/14 1:20 pm ::: |
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I really, really have no idea. But just for fun, I'll throw some darts at the board:
1 Iowa
2 Nebraska
3 Maryland
4 Rutgers
5 Michigan St.
6 Michigan
7 Minnesota
8 Purdue
9 Penn St.
10 Ohio St.
11 Northwestern
12 Indiana
13 Illinois
14 Wisconsin
Let me just repeat: I'm not confident about *anything* here. Certain teams seem high, even to me (I don't like Iowa being first), but I'm putting a lot of weight on not losing many players from last year (Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan). I'm not sure Purdue and Penn St will be able to replace everything they lost in one year, so I think it'll be a down year for both of them. I think Maryland is really going to miss Thomas as well.
Last edited by pasteurize on 10/28/14 8:44 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 10/27/14 2:59 pm ::: |
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My Big 10 prediction would be
Nebraska
Michigan St.
Maryland
Penn St
Iowa
Michigan
Rutgers
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio St
Purdue
Indiana
Wisconsin
Illinois
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63877
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Posted: 10/27/14 4:15 pm ::: |
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pasteurize wrote: |
I really, really have no idea. But just for fun, I'll throw some darts at the board:
1 Iowa
2 Nebraska
3 Maryland
4 Rutgers
5 Michigan St.
6 Michigan
8 Minnesota
7 Purdue
9 Penn St.
10 Ohio St.
11 Northwestern
12 Indiana
13 Illinois
14 Wisconsin
Let me just repeat: I'm not confident about *anything* here. Certain teams seem high, even to me (I don't like Iowa being first), but I'm putting a lot of weight on not losing many players from last year (Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan). I'm not sure Purdue and Penn St will be able to replace everything they lost in one year, so I think it'll be a down year for both of them. I think Maryland is really going to miss Thomas as well. |
Is Minnesota #7 or #8?
Is there any basis besides darts that most people are ranking Minnesota so low?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011 Posts: 2819 Location: Indiana
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Posted: 10/27/14 5:10 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
Is there any basis besides darts that most people are ranking Minnesota so low? |
Most likely based on where they have finished recently and the addition of Maryland/Rutgers. They also have a new coach which means a whole new philosophy and style to get adjusted to.
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PickledGinger
Joined: 04 Oct 2013 Posts: 1375
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Posted: 10/27/14 9:50 pm ::: |
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IMO, Banham and Zahui are the best 1-2 punch in the league, and Borton is finally gone. If Wagner comes in and contributes right away, I think they finish Top 3.
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Happycappie25
Joined: 07 Feb 2006 Posts: 4174 Location: QUEENS!!!!
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Posted: 10/28/14 8:34 am ::: |
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I'll take a stab but I gotta warn you a LOT of wild cards here, almost unfair to try to call before the Non Con ends
1. Maryland Not by much...losing Thomas DOES hurt big time...but they are a top ACC team with teams much better than the whole of the B1G Behind them. BUT it's NOT theirs to lose, there is a LOT of talent here...Frese will have to be careful not to get their team shell shocked early.
2. Michigan St. An unflashy "Never Count out" team. So I won't Pick them 2nd but it will be on the wings of close wins and gutted out performances.
3. Iowa Bluder has something in Logic. Solid top to bottom and experience over youth in this conference this year.
-----------------------------HOME COURT LINE----------------------------------
4. Nebraska 4-8 (Even 3-9) will come down to a game here or there. I'll give the edge to Yori and those who walk between the rows in those circumstances, they have a tough building to play in and in a tight division that can bolster you a spot or 3
5. Michigan Rebuilding year wasn't too big a rebuild for KBA and co, was it. High level NIT team and contender. Goree is the real deal...young hungry team, will make mistakes and blow a game but a solid contender who will be a legit NCAA contender.
6. Minnesota YES they have more talent than a 6th place team, on paper they should be first or 2nd and absolutely can be. BUT with a new coach and a beefed up conference, I do expect some growing pains here so 6th and on the right side of the Bubble.
7. Penn St lose a TON. but do have reserves and the Jordan Center adds 5 wins right there...in similar spot that Michigan was last year but they're on the right side of the bubble...if only on reputation
-----------------------------------NCAA LINE--------------------------------------
8. Purdue same boat as Penn State, could pull a Michigan St. and gut their way past a Minnesota or Michigan but I'll put them here for now but this is a tenious pick they could trade places with anyone above them except the top 3.
9. Rutgers Not...Buying...It. Sorry CViv I just am not. Underachieved the last 6 seasons have all the talent in the world. Scaife and Copper are legit topline prospects. They will pull big wins, but they can also blow a game to a Northwestern. Each game they play will be a nailbiter, and maybe they make a run...but I can't go off a team that had an NCAA bid on a Silver platter in a bad conference and choked it away to come into a 7 bid conference and finish 4th or 5th. As for the NIT win...legit...but the best win statistically was Bowling Green and Beat Seton Hall and UTEP on sheer will alone. Would win the Big East going away, would be 2nd to UConn and vying for home court in the American, but in the B1G they get lost in the shuffle...Lose too many games early and the wheels may come off.
10. Ohio State McGuff is a year away from greasing the wheels to a title...so this year they're a Macguffin will walk in with a strong Non Con and falter and settle for the NIT
11. Indiana This team has more breakout potential than Michigan. But then Miller stepped down. They got a great replacement (Moren was a steal and kudos for not just going for a Potboiler like Agler) but they need a year...and WARNING: Bad non conference could result in a transfer riot. I like Moren but this is a lot of transistion with such a late coaching change.
---------------------------------NIT LINE------------------------------------------
12. Illinois Bollant has something, but it will take time to transistion, showed promise but this is not a league for prospective breakouts this year. Pull some major spoilers, maybe even takes a safety pin to someone's bubble, but they're a year away, maybe 2.
13. Northwestern Joe Cool has his kids, his system, but it doesn't work at the big 10 level...think they'll keep him, NW kinda knows about being outgunned due to academic standards but it'll be another shoulda coulda woulda for the Wildcats.
14. Wisconsin Sing it with me folks: Kelsey gets the dagger and there'll be a new coach for the ones who believe! do do do, do do do, do do doo doo doo do do...
_________________ "Leave it to the NCAA women's basketball committee to turn a glass slipper into glass ceiling" Graham Hays
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Stephen Shirley
Joined: 18 Dec 2006 Posts: 787
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Posted: 10/28/14 8:42 am ::: More Mid-Major analysis |
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C-USA
1. MT--The Lady Raiders proved last year who has the best program. But the gap between them and the next team hasn't been this close since 2007-08.
2. W.Ky.--The Lady Toppers are a veteran squad with tons of depth. I actually give them about a 45% chance of winning the conference.
3. LaTech--I'm calling it. LaTech makes a BIG jump. They return a ton of talent and have an energetic young coach.
4. USM--They lost a star in Faulkner, but they developed quality depth last season.
5. UTEP--They graduated two of their best players. But their WNIT run gave the underclassmen great experience.
6. UAB--They graduated their top two players. But the Blazers return seven of their next eight players.
7. Rice--Can they do anything without Kuster?
8. Charlotte--Teams 7-12 are really just a toss up.
9. FIU--This team WAS all Coley all the time. Now what???
10. UNT--Lost less than the teams behind them.
11. ODU--Their best player, Shae Kelley, transfered to Minnesota and left a lackluster squad behind.
12. FAU--This team is YOUNG. Ten of their 12 players are freshmen or sophomores.
13. UTSA--A collection of decent players with little chance of being better this year.
14. Marshall--They stunk last year. This year won't be a change.
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pasteurize
Joined: 07 Oct 2008 Posts: 623 Location: NY
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Posted: 10/28/14 8:49 am ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
Is Minnesota #7 or #8?
Is there any basis besides darts that most people are ranking Minnesota so low? |
Ha - whoops! Minnesota was supposed to be 7 on my list. I've fixed it now.
purduefanatic wrote: |
Most likely based on where they have finished recently and the addition of Maryland/Rutgers. They also have a new coach which means a whole new philosophy and style to get adjusted to. |
This.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63877
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63877
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Posted: 10/28/14 9:00 am ::: |
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purduefanatic wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
Is there any basis besides darts that most people are ranking Minnesota so low? |
Most likely based on where they have finished recently and the addition of Maryland/Rutgers. They also have a new coach which means a whole new philosophy and style to get adjusted to. |
How difficult is it to get adjusted to the run and gun, other than just getting in shape for it? I think MIN made the coaching move in their star player's final year because they don't expect any such problems. Borton being gone should be seen as a plus if anything.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011 Posts: 2819 Location: Indiana
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Posted: 10/28/14 9:09 am ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
purduefanatic wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
Is there any basis besides darts that most people are ranking Minnesota so low? |
Most likely based on where they have finished recently and the addition of Maryland/Rutgers. They also have a new coach which means a whole new philosophy and style to get adjusted to. |
How difficult is it to get adjusted to the run and gun, other than just getting in shape for it? I think MIN made the coaching move in their star player's final year because they don't expect any such problems. Borton being gone should be seen as a plus if anything. |
You're right...I'm sure there won't be anything different. I would assume there will be some different defensive philosophies, different sets of plays in the half court, baseline out of bounds, different expectations from the coaching staff, different ways of doing just about everything...but yeah, other than that and several other things, not sure what will be different.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15755 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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Stephen Shirley
Joined: 18 Dec 2006 Posts: 787
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Happycappie25
Joined: 07 Feb 2006 Posts: 4174 Location: QUEENS!!!!
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NoDakSt
Joined: 26 Oct 2005 Posts: 4929
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Posted: 10/28/14 12:52 pm ::: |
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The XII (Ten)
1. Baylor.
t3. OK State
t3. West Virginia
4. Texas - basing this on Imani McGee redshirting
5. Iowa State
6. Oklahoma
7. kansas
8. Kansas State
9. Texas Christian
10. Texas Tech
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005 Posts: 4878 Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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Posted: 10/28/14 2:16 pm ::: |
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Happycappie25 wrote: |
-----------------------------------NCAA LINE--------------------------------------
8. Purdue same boat as Penn State, could pull a Michigan St. and gut their way past a Minnesota or Michigan but I'll put them here for now but this is a tenious pick they could trade places with anyone above them except the top 3.
....
11. Indiana This team has more breakout potential than Michigan. But then Miller stepped down. They got a great replacement (Moren was a steal and kudos for not just going for a Potboiler like Agler) but they need a year...and WARNING: Bad non conference could result in a transfer riot. I like Moren but this is a lot of transistion with such a late coaching change.
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Interesting observations, HappyCappie.
Purdue is one of those teams I always think won't be that good (comparing them to teams of the late 90s-to mid 00s), but then they pull it out and finish in the top 3rd and/or win the B1G tourney. They always have moxie and a history of winning on their side. I'd put Purdue over the NCAA line above PSU.
What do you see in Indiana as far as potential? I just looked at their roster and they're really, really young. The lone senior is a walk-on, their true junior got limited minutes last year, and they just lost one of their two RS juniors, Hullis. The other RS junior hasn't played in two seasons due to a transfer and an ACL. They really don't have much height either.
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Happycappie25
Joined: 07 Feb 2006 Posts: 4174 Location: QUEENS!!!!
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 10/28/14 3:59 pm ::: Re: Ruh roh |
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Happycappie25 wrote: |
Stephen Shirley wrote: |
cthskzfn wrote: |
for another mid-major, here's The Ugly American:
1- UConn
-----------------NCAA line------------------------
2-lord
3-please
4-deliver
5-me
6-from
7-this
8-embarrassment
9-of
10-a
11-conference.
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The UConn Huskies: the #1 Mid-Major in America. |
Sad, true, and a major problem for the huskies. Yes they pulled the double their first year...but I see decay ahead...this normally doesn't end well...men or women...again I am talking in units of decades, not years or seasons. Likely it wont start until Geno Retires (Similar to Barmore at La Tech...year he retires final 4 with Ford, next 2 years Budke lives off the old kids but realizes the landscape doesn't fit the expectations and gets out while the getting is good...Long can recruit and not coach, Spoon can coach but not recruit which brings us to today.) but this is NOT healthy, sorry it's been beaten to death but this is not healthy for UConn...and it's way worse for the women...at least the Men have Memphis who is a top program a solid program with tradition in Houston and Larry Brown going all in at SMU...the women have....ummm....Houston had some tradition but that died with Joe Curl...Memphis talks the talk...Tulane has talent but can't get out of it's way.
I'm not talking bout beating UConn I am talking having a team that can win enough amongst themselves to put up a respectable RPI so kids don't think they're in the dregs...and therein lies the problem...it's a slow death but this cancer has killed 2 TOPLINE final 4 regular programs already (Maybe 3 depending on what you call WKU)...this is not to be foo fooed except to say maybe nothing will happen on Geno's watch (that's fair, that's what happened with La Tech and Barmore) But the conference situation is a major issue for UConn and they need to figure it out QUICK. |
Apart from the reality that this isn't 2002 (with TV, social media. AAU, USA basketball and everything else, the landscape is entirely different than in Barmore days) there is a giant factor that could cause a huge change within the span of a single recruiting cycle (4 years), and that's money.
If 65 schools go ahead and start providing scholarship athletes with tuition, room, board, books, fees PLUS $5-10,000 in pocket money (as they are likely to do within the next year), how many elite players are going to pass that up to go to any school that isn't paying that extra money?
Clay has been correct that most non-Power 5 schools aren't going to be affected all that much because most of them aren't recruiting the same pool of players as the Power 5 schools. But the big exceptions are the Big East as a group, and UConn. The Big East may well end up matching the stipends (and it won't cost them nearly as much because they don't have FBS football, and in general they sponsor far fewer sports than most Power 5 schools), but I'll be shocked if the AAC does match it, which is going to leave UConn in a very difficult position. Maybe a few elite players are going to pass up the money, but it's clearly going go mean that some recruits who would otherwise have gone to UConn are going to go somewhere else.
So if the stipends go through, and UConn stays in the AAC, the impact is likely to be measured in years, not decades, Geno or no Geno. And unfortunately for UConn, it's mostly out of their control.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11193
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Posted: 10/29/14 9:26 am ::: |
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I haven't seen any reports that Stafford-McGee is redshirting, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening. Any confirmation from official sources?
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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newkid
Joined: 27 Jun 2008 Posts: 1184 Location: Austin, TX
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Posted: 10/29/14 9:55 am ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
I haven't seen any reports that Stafford-McGee is redshirting, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening. Any confirmation from official sources? |
This is certainly not definitive, but a knowledgeable poster on the longhorns board said the following about a week ago:
Quote: |
Saw Imani at the practice. It was good to see no brace, bandage or walking boot. She was doing leg exercises and walked without any noticeable problems. Looks like the projected return date of early January is going to be pretty accurate. |
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LegoMyEggo
Joined: 02 Apr 2010 Posts: 284
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Posted: 10/29/14 10:36 am ::: |
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South Florida should be a strong AAC team. They have a talented squad. Courtney Williams could push for some level of All-American by the time she is done. I see the Bulls being a clear 2nd in the AAC.
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buckeyewoman
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 Posts: 61 Location: Columbus OH
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Posted: 10/31/14 12:14 pm ::: OSU non-conf |
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10. Ohio State McGuff is a year away from greasing the wheels to a title...so this year they're a Macguffin Wink will walk in with a strong Non Con and falter and settle for the NIT
I definitely agree OSU is a year - or two - away from contending for league or other titles. I think you are overly optimistic re "a strong Non Con." What with dismissal of our only senior, two freshman season ending injuries, two transfers not available, and teams like VA, GA, Clemson, and WVU on the non conf schedule, I think entire season will be a struggle. But the future looks bright!
_________________ Go Bucks!
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 10/31/14 12:42 pm ::: Re: OSU non-conf |
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buckeyewoman wrote: |
two freshman season ending injuries |
Besides Waterman, what other freshman is out with an injury?
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bekcat1
Joined: 24 Feb 2011 Posts: 874 Location: The ATL
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Posted: 10/31/14 4:25 pm ::: |
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Matt5762 wrote: |
My preseason guess is that the SEC will finish almost surprisingly similar to last season. I decided to predict the records instead of placement because I fully expect 5 through 13 to be a complete mess just like last year. Mississippi State is the team I have my eye that might make the biggest jump. Vivians is my preseason pick for SEC FOY.
14-2 S Carolina
13-3 Tennessee
12-4 Texas A&M
11-5 Kentucky
9-7 Georgia
8-8 Florida
8-8 Miss State
8-8 Vanderbilt5
7-9 LSU
6-10 Auburn
5-11 Alabama
5-11 Arkansas
5-11 Missouri
1-15 Ole Miss |
Switch Tennessee and SC. I don't think Tennessee loses in conference this season.
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mzonefan
Joined: 15 Oct 2005 Posts: 4878 Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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Posted: 10/31/14 8:29 pm ::: Re: OSU non-conf |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
buckeyewoman wrote: |
two freshman season ending injuries |
Besides Waterman, what other freshman is out with an injury? |
Chelsea Mitchell with an ACL suffered in practice.
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