RebKell's Junkie Boards

[Stormeo]

I guess I'm moving this whole top-pick polling thing along, because why not. The board has appeared to establish that Chennedy Carter is a consensus lottery pick. So this poll assumes Ionescu, Cox, Sabally, and Carter (in some order) will have all been picked as lottery picks. Dallas could keep this pick or even make a big push to trade up, which they of all teams have the assets to do so as we've well documented. But trading up in this League is just always going to be an unlikely sight. So instead, this'll be a simple poll. At least as of right now, is Megan Walker the #5 Pick on your mock draft or not? Is Walker the clear-cut Best of the Rest (after the lottery picks) that gets drafted at #5 no matter which team ends up with that pick?

As per usual, no end-date set; and if you answer "No", don't be afraid to say who you think should go #5 overall!

[Luuuc]

Just my 2 cents - for more meaningful poll results I would have gone with 2 No options (No - Higher than #5, and No - Lower than #5) just to be 100% clear about what the votes mean, because never make assumptions about how people will vote, and 17% of voters didn't go with Carter at #4.

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Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.

[myrtle]

If Atlanta doesn't take her, I think she will drop because IMO Dallas will take a guard here.

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For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman

[Randy]

[PickledGinger]

I definitely think Walker is the best player available at #5, but they need a point guard soooo much more than another wing. I don’t see them going for Carter though, if anything I think they should try to trade for a future asset knowing that they can get either Harris or Dangerfield at #7.

[toad455]

yeah, I just don't see Dallas with a need to take Walker if they take Sabally at #2. In my mock, they take Sabally, Tyasha Harris(#5), Hebard(#7) & the best available at #9 which could be trade bait due to their crowded roster.

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Twitter: @TBRBWAY

[Richyyy]

Dallas have only got two posts worth a damn. Let Sabally play mostly 4 and there's plenty of room for Walker to get minutes on the wing if she's good enough. Bad teams in particular just need to be taking the best player available at every opportunity.

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[bluedevilaztecfan5]

Megan should be drafted #5 imo. Best player available.
I think the Wings should take her. They definitely are crowded on the wing (three 3s even without Sabally, and you can argue Davis should be at that spot too).

Jefferson, Davis
Ogunbowale, Gray, Hill, Mabrey
Thornton, Samuelson, Samuelson
Harrison, Gustafson, Bertsch
Ndour, Anigwe

I’m thinking:
Jefferson/Dangerfield(9)
Ogunbowale/Gray/Davis
Sabally(2) /Walker(5)/KLSamuelson
Thornton/Harrison
Ndour/Mompremier(7)

Trade for a post? Having a hard time finding a player taller than 6’3 who I think could be available and able to start. Vadeeva, Stokes, EWill, Achonwa?

[Randy]

eWILL for 7.

[toad455]

If they draft who I think:

PG: Jefferson/Harris
SG: Ogunbowale/Gray
SF: Sabally/Samuelson/Thornton
PF: Ndour/Hebard
C: Harrison/Gustafson/Anigwe

_________________
LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!

Twitter: @TBRBWAY

[blaase22]

Megan will be drafted by the Lynx.
Dallas can’t afford to pass up Hebard.

[Richyyy]

[J-Spoon]

I am getting closer to the consensus of Sabally at 2 but this is another way to look at it

1. NY Ionescu 2. Dal Cox 3. Indy Sabally 4. Atl Carter 5. Dal Walker
6. Minn Hebard (Harris)7. Dallas Harris (Hebard) 8 Chi Alarie 9. Dal Mompremier (Cooper)

Jefferson/Harris
Ogunbowale/Gray/Hill or Davis
Walker/KLS
Cox/Thorton
N'Dour/Harrison/Mompremier

and/or If Minn takes Harris and 6 Dal can take Hebard at 7 and Cooper at 9

Jefferson/Cooper
Ogunbowale/Gray/Hill or Davis
Walker/KLS
Cox/Hebard/Thorton
N'Dour/Harrison

[Richyyy]

I will just point out that Thornton's a 3 who can play a bit of 4 in small lineups. Because I keep seeing people put her at the 4 in depth charts like that, and that's really not her primary position.

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[J-Spoon]

[J-Spoon]

[root_thing]

Walker is another odd situation. You can pretty much check every box with her when it comes to athletic ability and skill. Not that she’s top-notch in all categories, but she ranges from very good to adequate in almost all cases. In other words, Walker has no glaring weaknesses. However, the big fly in the ointment is that she played poorly against good competition. Megan scored 18 points against Baylor, but on ugly 5-20 shooting. She followed up with an embarrassing 3-15, 9 points against Tennessee. Determined to bounce back against Oregon, Megan performed slightly worse at 3-16, 8 points. Finally, Walker was more respectable against South Carolina, shooting 5-11, but it resulted in an inconsequential 10 points. Note that in the three games against Tennessee, Oregon, and SC, Walker shot a combined total of 1 free throw. The only quality opponent that Megan played well against was Team USA. In that game, she shot 9-16 for 22 points against a bunch of rusty old ladies.

So, how do you interpret this if you’re a scout? Do you ignore the bad performances in big games and only consider Walker’s talent as a whole package? In that case, she’s worth the #5 pick. However, if you view the prime time meltdowns as proof Megan isn’t competitive enough or psychologically strong enough to succeed in the WNBA, then you should move on. Of course, the middle ground is that she isn’t tough now, but it’s a problem Walker might outgrow. Then the decision is more of a coin toss.

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You can always do something else.

[toad455]

[Stormeo]

I just find Dallas' situation morbidly fascinating; I spent a good hour heavily thinking of off-the-wall trade scenarios, under the premise that this year's draft is/will be viewed around the League as clearly stronger than next year's. I thought maybe a thin roster like Chicago's could use both someone like Davis who can compete for a spot as a utility perimeter player, and an extra pick since the Sky have no 2nd-rounder. Vegas though has both the thinnest roster and least amount of draft picks out of anyone, and is the one team who could really use more players to fill out this year's roster; at the same time, I could see Agler not being very high on Anigwe and her rookie performance/personality (Curt Miller didn't seem to have much patience with her, so maybe). Randy suggested E. Williams for 7? Well I spiced it up some lol - admittedly probably too much!

Being on par with the poll results I guess, the #5 Pick always ended up becoming a post player in my scenarios. As much as I had thought of Megan Walker as the de facto #5 Pick, the Wings should they choose to keep the pick wouldn't really need Walker given that some combination of Thornton, KLS, and Gray ought to be enough to fill out the SF spot with regards to what each player brings to the table. Especially if Ndour doesn't show, Dallas just needs more post help. I didn't include KLS in any scenarios since A) she just got there, but more importantly B) with her sister on the roster, I just don't think they would do that and risk any sort of blowback - I imagine they'd at least wait 'til after cutting Karlie (maybe) before deciding what to do with Katie Lou.

The Wings have enough to trade up to at least #4, even if someone like Chennedy Carter may not appear to be a good fit - ya can't deny her raw talent, of which the Wings could still use plenty. I thought about it, and I do think Carter and Ogunbowale can coexist, especially if one of them comes off the bench. Too, imo Carter is slightly more of a PG and Ogunbowale is slightly more of a SG. Between the two of them, I think Ogunbowale at the very least wouldn't be upset if she were asked to shoot less; Or they could whip Carter into being a selective shot-taker from the get-go. The real key would be having a defensive SF (like Thornton) and a rim protector in if both guards are on the floor together, due to each's lack of defensive ability.

One way or another, the Wings are gonna need to start cutting down on people to get below the training camp max (I'm assuming there still will be one, for now - there would at least be less late arrivals if some of the overseas leagues' seasons have already been outright cancelled). If they overtrade by giving away too much quantity in deals, really it's ok so long as the quality they trade away isn't too much and the quality they receive is meaningful. They can only keep 12, and at the same time only a few players at this point seem to be realistically tradeable; but draft picks generally speaking can always be tradeable, and the Wings have stockpiled a bunch of those, too. One strategy they would be unwise not to utilize is turning picks/players of this year into picks for next year and beyond, so that their supply of assets can be slowly cut down over time, keeping them in an advantageous bargaining position instead of letting a bunch go this year all at once.

I'm like Spooner, I'm just putting this out there to get the talk going. I doubt Dallas can actually put together more than two trades, but I tried staying as realistic and rational as possible within them; though naturally some cr@ckhead energy of mine will always leak through. Who knows how much stuff there will really be to talk about in a couple weeks after the shine of the Draft is over...

[J-Spoon]

Wow that is a lot of moving pieces

thinking of your over paying but for value how about

#5, #7 and Chi's 2021 1st round pick for #3

Why Dallas does it
Dallas can solve the Sabally vs Cox debate by drafting both
and with its #9 pick can grab whatever PG is left between Dangerfield, Harris or Cooper

Dallas
Jefferson/#9 (Harris, Cooper or Dangerfield)
Ogunbowlae/Gray
Sabally/Thorton/KLS
Cox/Anigwe/Gustafson
N'Dour/Harrison

Why Indy does it
they get a virtual lottery pick in Walker and if they really luck out Minny picks Harris at 6 and Indy get Hebard at 7 if not they can still get another post in Mompremier who you can grow with the core of McCowan, Walker and the Mitchells, move into Dupree's spot in 2021 and both are an improvement on McCall and Mavunga, and they have 2 1st round picks again in 2021 to fill out their up and coming team.

Wheeler/K. Mitchell
T. Mitchell/Vivians/Burke
Walker/Laney
Dupree/Hebard or Mompremier/Mavunga
McCowan/Achonwa

It is basically Cox for Walker, Hebard (or Mompremier) and a 2021 first round pick.

At first glance it looks like Dallas is really over paying except for the fact that they have way too many pieces to make this years team and the over pay allows them to build a future around Ogunbowlae, Sabally and Cox which sounds like a very exciting core for a future team, and Indy gets to add Walker and Hebard (or Mompremier) to a developing team, and adds another pick to its own in 2021 which gives them a ton of flexibility in 2021 to make the final move from its remaining vets and build it's 2021 team on a slowly seasoning core of K. Mitchell, T. Mithcell, Walker, Hebard (or Mompremier), McCowan, Vivians, Burke and two decent 2021 picks to have one of the youngest and deepest teams in the league.

and if you're an Indy fan and you are not that into Walker you could always do Hebard at 5 Minny takes Walker at 6 and Indy takes Harris at 7 (or if Minny takes Harris at 6 you still get Hebard at 5 and Walker at 7 and you are guaranteed Habard as above).

Wheeler/Harris
K. Mitchell/T. Mitchell/Burke
Vivians/Laney
Dupree/Hebard/Mavunga
McCowan/Achonwa

[DFWub2018]

[Richyyy]

I agree with the basic idea of "when you've got this much capital, go ahead and overpay for something". Problem is that you still need the other side to be willing. If, say, 5+7+9+Thornton still doesn't get Indiana to give up #3 (or even Atlanta to give up #4) then there's not much you can do about it. Because other teams also know that the star players are the ones you need to get hold of, and you can find the extra pieces along the way.

And all those 2020 picks immediately become less valuable once they're actual individual humans. We've seen in every US sport over the years that teams are much keener to acquire picks that they can use as assets or to pick who they want, than to trade for a specific individual rookie.

On a basic level, if they can turn the #7 or #9 into a 2021 1st from anybody, at least that would give them another year to use it in a deal as an asset. Even if it's from a team that everyone expects to finish high in the standings. (although considering we might not have a 2020 season, and therefore they'd have to contrive a 2021 draft order in some unknown way, I'd be reluctant to do that as any other team)

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[ClayK]

[Shades]

[Stormeo]