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SpaceJunkie
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mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
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 Posted: 02/25/17 10:54 am ::: |
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| Crazy how Texas had a one seed within grasp and now has slid to probably one of if not the weakest 3 seed
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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| Posted: 02/25/17 11:13 am ::: |
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This has gone a little under the radar but multiple teams have starters who are hurt. If they do not return before Selection Sunday, in my estimation they should move down from the current position because I don't think you can just give these teams the benefit of the doubt when they say we hope to have them back soon. Maybe that leaves them on the same seed line, but maybe not. Of the players listed I think Coates is the one that is likely to return the soonest but the others have real questions. If I am missing any others, let me know.
Stephanie Mavunga for Ohio State has not played since a February 4th game vs. Wisconsin. She is the 2nd leading scorer, leading rebounder, and has the most blocked shots on the team.
Shakyla Thomas of Florida State got injured on February 16th vs. Virginia and hasn't played since. Leading scorer for FSU at 15 ppg.
Alaina Coates missed South Carolina's last game vs. Texas A&M and her playing status is uncertain for tomorrow's game vs. Kentucky.
Briahanna Jackson for Louisville has not played since February 6th. Jeff Walz says
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| “I’m not sure if B.J. will be able to play (this week), because of her back. She tweaked it again the other day,” Walz said. “We’re going through the process with her now. If we can possibly get her back for the NCAA Tournament, I think that’s a realistic goal. We’re going to take things slow.” |
Jackson is Louisville's 4th leading scorer, 2nd most assists, best assist to turnover ratio, and tied for the most steals on the team.
Forgot to mention, no Alexis Jones for Baylor today either. Quite a few injuries that can really impact a team in March.
Last edited by Durantula on 02/25/17 3:29 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Howee
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Fighting Artichoke
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SpaceJunkie
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SpaceJunkie
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| Posted: 02/25/17 1:00 pm ::: |
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| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
He had LSU as a 9-seed, but knocked them down to a 10-seed because of a procedural bump. He had Auburn as a 10-seed but bumped them UP to a 9-seed. (As they are in the same conference, I don't know why he did that.)
As for Georgia, they doomed themselves with a terrible performance OOC. They went 8-5 versus a very weak OOC schedule (SOS = 152), giving them an OOC RPI of 144. Auburn went 10-4 vs. an SOS of 34th, giving them a non-conference RPI of 33. So even though Georgia has performed slightly better in conference (7-8 vs 6-9 for Auburn), they still have a horrid RPI (85) whereas Auburn's RPI is firmly in bubble territory (43). If Auburn loses their last regular season game @Arkansas, their bubble probably pops unless they win a couple of games in the SEC tourney. Georgia better win the SEC tournament if they want to dance. |
Georgia looks to be a 7 seed in the SEC Tournament to me, so if they can win their final regular season game at Florida, and get past South Carolina or Mississippi St in the quarterfinals, that might get them in if none of the teams fighting for the last one or two at-large spots (Tulane,Iowa,Indiana,Virginia,Cal,etc) do anything now and in their conference tournaments.
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Howee
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| Posted: 02/25/17 4:51 pm ::: |
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| Thanks for that analysis, folks. I never delve into the deeper layers of rankings at these levels, and I knew some of you would know.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 02/25/17 4:52 pm ::: |
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| Durantula wrote: |
This has gone a little under the radar but multiple teams have starters who are hurt. If they do not return before Selection Sunday, in my estimation they should move down from the current position because I don't think you can just give these teams the benefit of the doubt when they say we hope to have them back soon. Maybe that leaves them on the same seed line, but maybe not. Of the players listed I think Coates is the one that is likely to return the soonest but the others have real questions. If I am missing any others, let me know.
Stephanie Mavunga for Ohio State has not played since a February 4th game vs. Wisconsin. She is the 2nd leading scorer, leading rebounder, and has the most blocked shots on the team.
Shakyla Thomas of Florida State got injured on February 16th vs. Virginia and hasn't played since. Leading scorer for FSU at 15 ppg.
Alaina Coates missed South Carolina's last game vs. Texas A&M and her playing status is uncertain for tomorrow's game vs. Kentucky.
Briahanna Jackson for Louisville has not played since February 6th. Jeff Walz says
| Quote: |
| “I’m not sure if B.J. will be able to play (this week), because of her back. She tweaked it again the other day,” Walz said. “We’re going through the process with her now. If we can possibly get her back for the NCAA Tournament, I think that’s a realistic goal. We’re going to take things slow.” |
Jackson is Louisville's 4th leading scorer, 2nd most assists, best assist to turnover ratio, and tied for the most steals on the team.
Forgot to mention, no Alexis Jones for Baylor today either. Quite a few injuries that can really impact a team in March. |
Ohio St still has Hart who was their starting center last year, and the big freshman McCoy, and they beat Maryland without Mavunga, so I don't think any penalty is in order for them.
Let's see if Thomas plays for FSU tomorrow vs Notre Dame. My guess is that she will.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 02/25/17 5:51 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
Ohio St still has Hart who was their starting center last year, and the big freshman McCoy, and they beat Maryland without Mavunga, so I don't think any penalty is in order for them.
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I've been surprised that Hart hasn't gotten more minutes. I really liked her last year.
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SpaceJunkie
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Fighting Artichoke
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| Posted: 02/26/17 8:12 pm ::: |
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Creme now tweets: "Full bracket coming tomorrow, but some notables. #1's in order: UConn, Notre Dame, Baylor, SC. A&M's chance to host all but gone. TN up to a No. 6 seed. Last 4 in stay same Iowa St, Virginia, Indiana, Auburn"
I am curious how ND got ahead of Baylor.
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/26/17 8:24 pm ::: |
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| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
Creme now tweets: "Full bracket coming tomorrow, but some notables. #1's in order: UConn, Notre Dame, Baylor, SC. A&M's chance to host all but gone. TN up to a No. 6 seed. Last 4 in stay same Iowa St, Virginia, Indiana, Auburn"
I am curious how ND got ahead of Baylor. |
It won't really matter much since they don't use a true S curve. It probably means that SC gets to make the trip to Stockton though so in that regard the order is meaningful.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 02/26/17 8:32 pm ::: |
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So I'm thinking MS State just played themselves out of a 1 seed, but I wonder how bad it is. As a 1 seed, they go to Stockton. With SC moving up to the 1 seed maybe they swap and are the 2 seed in Lexington.
Not so horrible.
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Fighting Artichoke
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| Posted: 02/26/17 8:51 pm ::: |
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| Phil wrote: |
So I'm thinking MS State just played themselves out of a 1 seed, but I wonder how bad it is. As a 1 seed, they go to Stockton. With SC moving up to the 1 seed maybe they swap and are the 2 seed in Lexington.
Not so horrible. |
As the 2-seed in Lexington, they have a potential E8 date with Notre Dame. As the 1-seed in Stockton, they have a potential E8 date with Oregon St. I guess it's choose your poison, but with who is the better match up for Miss St.? Plus in Stockton, they play a 4-seed in the S16, whereas they play a 3-seed in Lexington.
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Durantula
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| Posted: 02/26/17 10:56 pm ::: |
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Based on Creme's bracketology from a few days ago it sounds like there are about 55 locks. All 32 projected champions, plus all of the at large teams up to seed line #8, except Michigan State, who just took a bad loss to Nebraska. That gives you 23 at large locks.
That leaves 9 spots remaining, presumably for the following teams. I just put Michigan State plus all of the at large teams seeded 9 or worse, then put Creme's first four out and next for out. That leaves 17 teams for 9 spots.
Auburn, Elon, Georgetown, George Washington, Green Bay, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, LSU, Michigan State, Northern Iowa, Oregon, South Florida, St. John's, Tulane, Virginia, WVU,
Surprisingly Elon has the highest RPI of the group at 25.
Best SOS is Auburn at 11.
Best non-conference RPI is Green Bay at 4.
Best Non-conference SOS is Iowa at 4.
Best road records are Elon and Green Bay at 11-4. Think this should be considered more because unlike MBB these teams have to play road games in many cases, not true neutral court games.
Best neutral site records are USF and Auburn at 4-1
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Fighting Artichoke
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| Posted: 02/26/17 11:41 pm ::: |
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| Durantula wrote: |
Based on Creme's bracketology from a few days ago it sounds like there are about 55 locks. All 32 projected champions, plus all of the at large teams up to seed line #8, except Michigan State, who just took a bad loss to Nebraska. That gives you 23 at large locks.
That leaves 9 spots remaining, presumably for the following teams. I just put Michigan State plus all of the at large teams seeded 9 or worse, then put Creme's first four out and next for out. That leaves 17 teams for 9 spots.
Auburn, Elon, Georgetown, George Washington, Green Bay, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, LSU, Michigan State, Northern Iowa, Oregon, South Florida, St. John's, Tulane, Virginia, WVU,
Surprisingly Elon has the highest RPI of the group at 25.
Best SOS is Auburn at 11.
Best non-conference RPI is Green Bay at 4.
Best Non-conference SOS is Iowa at 4.
Best road records are Elon and Green Bay at 11-4. Think this should be considered more because unlike MBB these teams have to play road games in many cases, not true neutral court games.
Best neutral site records are USF and Auburn at 4-1 |
Nice work. Sound reasoning.
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RPI 43, wins over Tennessee, Drake, LSU, Indiana. 2 bad losses, but many of the bubble teams have barely any good wins, if any, and just as many bad losses. Georgia's RPI is 85 which is too high to get in right now even if they have the same number of good wins and bad losses as Auburn.