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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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 Posted: 09/26/16 11:28 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
HERE is a link to 15 online polls as to who won the debate
I checked 14 of them about an hour after the debate ended and Trump was dominating every one -- except that the Slate.com poll was frozen up with too much traffic.
I expected this result for the online polls. I also think my prediction that the TV pundits mainly say Hillary won was also on the mark.
Myself, I thought it was pretty even. Hillary said virtually nothing on policy specifics, spending almost all her time on attacking Trump often personally. That caused Trump to spend excessive time being too defensive, and wasting a lot of time that he could have much better used to go on offense against Hillary on the emails, immigration and the Clinton Foundation.
Trump interrupted Hillary several times. Some were good scores but most were nothingburgers. Lester Holt interrupted and "fact checked" Trump a lot more than he did either to Hillary.
On edit 90 minutes after debate: Trump is beating Clinton on Slate 54% to 46% with about 20,000 votes cast. |
That link now has 20 online polls. Trump is cleaning clock in all 20, even on the polls that one assumes would be neutral or leftish such as Slate, Time, The Hill, and ABC.
ABC is bizarre. Trump is getting 52%, Stein 23%, Johnson 16%, and Clinton only 9% with 46,000 votes cast. |
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 09/26/16 11:30 pm ::: |
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| Trumps internet trolls are out in full force. That isn't close to being reflective of actual voters.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 09/26/16 11:39 pm ::: |
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| mercfan3 wrote: |
| Trumps internet trolls are out in full force. That isn't close to being reflective of actual voters. |
Why would Trump have more internet voters than Clinton? One possible answer, I suppose, is that they are more enthusiastic and fired up for their candidate.
Why would one assume that an online voter will not be an actual voter? I don't think there's any way to determine that one way or the other. But whatever percentage turn out to be actual voters, Trump seems to have a lot more in his online voter pool. |
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blaase22
Joined: 28 Mar 2011
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| Posted: 09/26/16 11:45 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| mercfan3 wrote: |
| Trumps internet trolls are out in full force. That isn't close to being reflective of actual voters. |
Why would Trump have more internet voters than Clinton? One possible answer, I suppose, is that they are more enthusiastic and fired up for their candidate.
Why would one assume that an online voter will not be an actual voter? I don't think there's any way to determine that one way or the other. But whatever percentage turn out to be actual voters, Trump seems to have a lot more in his online voter pool. |
If the polls look bizarre its because they are being rigged, trump trolls or russians trying to make it look like he didn't bomb.
My hometown paper had a poll online I voted and there were like 250 votes with Clinton leading 55 to 45, not even 10 minutes later there are over 1,500 votes and Trump is leading with over 80 percent lol
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GlennMacGrady
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| Posted: 09/26/16 11:53 pm ::: |
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The CNBC poll, not a conservative channel, is not included in the above 20 polls.
As of 340,000 votes, Trump is ahead 59% to 41%.
These are the same type of online poll results favoring Trump that we saw throughout the many months of the Republican debate cycle. |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: 09/27/16 12:38 am ::: |
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I think Clinton won the debate, based on the second hour. I think Trump was doing better in the first half hour when they were talking about TPP and trade.
Even though Trump lost in my eyes, he did better than I expected. Or rather, he didn't do as bad as I expected. He did trip over every thing brought up against him. Hurt himself on his tax returns, didn't have the right response for the 70's housing discrimination lawsuit, didn't respond correctly to the birther issue. It showed that he wasn't prepared. She was. When he made a statement that she hadn't been campaigning while he was, she had a prepared response about how she had prepared to be president. She was also prepared with the beauty contestant anecdote and had prepared lines like "continue to live in your own reality" and had a prepared bullet list on his tax returns.
The worst thing for Trump is that he did not remain presidential the entire time. He needed to be Mexico Trump the entire time and he couldn't do it, although he started off trying.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 09/27/16 12:45 am ::: |
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With Trump's narcissistic personality and his need to control it would seriously not surprise me if he hired one of those "click farms" (if you watch Silicon Valley they deal with one on season 3) to generate enough votes on all those polls to put him solidly in the lead.
The numbers just don't add up otherwise. And the demographics of those likely to answer an online poll is actually in Clinton's favor. Had Trump trounced Clinton out there an argument could have been made for people trying to answer objectively, but that was clearly not the case tonight. It was closer to Clinton trouncing Trump than the other way around (though I would characterize it more as a solid performace by Clinton versus a very mediocre one by Trump).
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GlennMacGrady
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| Posted: 09/27/16 12:49 am ::: |
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Found a poll that Clinton won, 62%-27%: ORC/CNN poll. It was by far the smallest pool, 521 registered voters with a questionable mix:
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26% of the respondents who participated in tonight's survey identified themselves as Republicans, 41% identified
themselves as Democrats, and 33% identified themselves as Independents. |
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justintyme
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| Posted: 09/27/16 12:54 am ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Found a poll that Clinton won, 62%-27%: ORC/CNN poll. It was by far the smallest pool, 521 registered voters with a questionable mix:
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26% of the respondents who participated in tonight's survey identified themselves as Republicans, 41% identified
themselves as Democrats, and 33% identified themselves as Independents. |
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It is also the first of the non online polls. Need a bigger sample size, but the look of the numbers seems closer to reality.
Especially since he would have pulled very few of the "independent" from that sample.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 09/27/16 1:01 am ::: |
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According to Twitter, the most popular item was Trump's denial that he referred to climate change as a chinese hoax. People began retweeting his Nov 6, 2012 tweet that said,
"The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."
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Luuuc
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| Posted: 09/27/16 1:07 am ::: |
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| Queenie wrote: |
| I hope the next moderator actually moderates. Holt got run roughshod over most of the night. I don't care if they use shock collars, cut the mic, bring out the hook, install trap doors- but please, find some way of getting the candidates to shut the goddamn hell up when their turn is done. Bring in Ed Hochuli, or Dick Bavetta, or someone with a steel chair, or something. |
So much this ^
I found it a very frustrating listen as a result of the interruptions, and the resulting tangents away from the topic.
If Trump is killing it in the polls then that's probably a good thing for HRC. I think her #1 potential issue in the election is voter apathy, so people feeling like their vote matters helps her IMO.
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blaase22
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| Posted: 09/27/16 1:16 am ::: |
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| Luuuc wrote: |
| Queenie wrote: |
| I hope the next moderator actually moderates. Holt got run roughshod over most of the night. I don't care if they use shock collars, cut the mic, bring out the hook, install trap doors- but please, find some way of getting the candidates to shut the goddamn hell up when their turn is done. Bring in Ed Hochuli, or Dick Bavetta, or someone with a steel chair, or something. |
So much this ^
I found it a very frustrating listen as a result of the interruptions, and the resulting tangents away from the topic.
If Trump is killing it in the polls then that's probably a good thing for HRC. I think her #1 potential issue in the election is voter apathy, so people feeling like their vote matters helps her IMO. |
Agreed trump rigging all these polls is gonna backfire on him more than help lol
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 09/27/16 7:04 am ::: |
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| Talking about issues or policies is not relevant to campaigning. People voting based on issues and policies decided who to vote for long ago. Campaigning is about rousing the people who like your policies to get them to the polls and swaying personality based voters.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 09/27/16 7:34 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Talking about issues or policies is not relevant to campaigning. People voting based on issues and policies decided who to vote for long ago. Campaigning is about rousing the people who like your policies to get them to the polls and swaying personality based voters. |
Ew.
But that's one reason Hillary isn't the best at it.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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| Posted: 09/27/16 8:33 am ::: |
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| Trump's apparently a cocaine user.
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tfan
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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| Posted: 09/27/16 9:18 am ::: |
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I'm so happy that I watched the football game instead of this.
From what I've read this morning it would have been a waste of my time. In fact, what I read this morning was a waste of my time.
What I don't understand is why so many people DID watch it. I heard up to 100 million people tuned in. WHY? Did either one say anything new? Did either one say anything useful to help someone to decide who to vote for? Against?
I see no reason for this type of debate. They don't debate! They just continue to blather on and on.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 09/27/16 9:28 am ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
I'm so happy that I watched the football game instead of this.
From what I've read this morning it would have been a waste of my time. In fact, what I read this morning was a waste of my time.
What I don't understand is why so many people DID watch it. I heard up to 100 million people tuned in. WHY? Did either one say anything new? Did either one say anything useful to help someone to decide who to vote for? Against?
I see no reason for this type of debate. They don't debate! They just continue to blather on and on. |
I didn't watch it either. My usual daily listening to Democracy Now! and The Stephanie Miller Show has covered enough of it.
DN! is doing a faux debate with Jill Stein, who is given a chance to answer Holt's questions as if she was on stage last night, live in studio.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 09/27/16 12:23 pm ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
| I see no reason for this type of debate. They don't debate! They just continue to blather on and on. |
*Sometimes* this might be correct. It certainly wasn't the case for me, at least: yes, there was some "blathering", but for me, it WAS telling to see them, side by side, and how each handled pressure, and could communicate substance under duress.
I'm not one to enjoy most debates. The primary debates did little for me. But I had no trouble watching this one from beginning to end. Tfan's link is a terrific analysis, but I'm not sure I could fully appreciate it if I hadn't seen it all for myself.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 09/27/16 1:39 pm ::: |
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| Looking at what is being talked about today I think Clinton struck gold with her questions about Trump's taxes and why he won't release them. Most powerful was the suggestion that perhaps he doesn't want to release them because he didn't pay any. And it wasn't so much what she said as it was his response. Supposed billionaire not paying taxes? "That makes me smart". Boom. It sounds like an admission and that is something Clinton can pound into the ground. Trump is trying to appeal tho the blue collar workers out there and the idea that he is just another fat cat billionaire taking advantage of being a 1% and wanting more of the same while paying less in taxes than they do can hurt him.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 09/27/16 2:01 pm ::: |
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And also:
Her name is Alicia Machado.
Her name is Alicia Machado.
Her name is Alicia Machado.
Trump doubled down on this today calling in to Fox and Friends. Taking on Rosie is one thing since she does have an abrasive personality so many Republican-leaning women might well just shrug. But by expanding his targets to more sympathetic women, this type of a meme could really take off. It's something that combines both sexism and racism and could actually create a wedge between him and these voters.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ihO5KootGjY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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mercfan3
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| Posted: 09/27/16 2:13 pm ::: |
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| justintyme wrote: |
| Looking at what is being talked about today I think Clinton struck gold with her questions about Trump's taxes and why he won't release them. Most powerful was the suggestion that perhaps he doesn't want to release them because he didn't pay any. And it wasn't so much what she said as it was his response. Supposed billionaire not paying taxes? "That makes me smart". Boom. It sounds like an admission and that is something Clinton can pound into the ground. Trump is trying to appeal tho the blue collar workers out there and the idea that he is just another fat cat billionaire taking advantage of being a 1% and wanting more of the same while paying less in taxes than they do can hurt him. |
Exactly. That was the most striking moment of the debate for me. And here's the thing, he's said so many things that are outrageous. Both in his crazy lies (we have the internet Donald. We can fact check.) and his bigotry. You would think nothing would surprise me. That surprised me. How can you be that stupid.
Another exchange that shocked me was Trump's gun control perspective. (For one, he's more reasonable than a lot of republicans..) I wonder how this is going to go over..(Of course, he turned his gun control stance into anti-immigration, but still..interesting change that I'm sure he'll deny he made.)
That CNN debate article is interesting, agree with a lot of it, disagree with some. I think the biggest disagreement is on Clinton's patience. She scored a lot of points with a lot of people by just smiling and patiently waiting. She became relatable to a lot of women in the workplace, and Donald screaming about temperament. Her choice in demeanor paid off.
What didn't work for her was that at times, she did come across as over rehearsed. There is a difference between being prepared and being rehearsed and early on (not so much later, when she was subtly antagonizing Donald and letting him self destruct.) she straddled that line, IMO.
Also, if there was one issue she lost on, it was trade. Now, I'm not even sure where I fall on that, and I don't know much about the trade issues and deal. I do know, that Trump (and Bernie's) narrative on trade has won. So, Hillary needs to explain (in easy to understand terms) the complexities of it a little more, and get her argument out there. Hill is not a black and white candidate, she's a grey area candidate. I like that, but I also recognize that doesn't sway voters (it's not emotional). She needs to get her point of view across on this issue, because she does come across a someone who just jumped on the Bernie train here. (Even if that truly isn't the case.)
Virtually everything else she killed him on. And temperament/personality is a huge one. Even if you don't like Hillary, she came across as someone responsible and knowledgable. Donald looked like he was out of his league. (He was.)
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pilight
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| Posted: 09/27/16 2:21 pm ::: |
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| mercfan3 wrote: |
| What didn't work for her was that at times, she did come across as over rehearsed. There is a difference between being prepared and being rehearsed and early on (not so much later, when she was subtly antagonizing Donald and letting him self destruct.) she straddled that line, IMO. |
She comes across that way often. Clinton is not a dynamic public speaker.
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Silky Johnson
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| Posted: 09/27/16 2:22 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| mercfan3 wrote: |
| Trumps internet trolls are out in full force. That isn't close to being reflective of actual voters. |
Why would Trump have more internet voters than Clinton? One possible answer, I suppose, is that they are more enthusiastic and fired up for their candidate.
Why would one assume that an online voter will not be an actual voter? I don't think there's any way to determine that one way or the other. But whatever percentage turn out to be actual voters, Trump seems to have a lot more in his online voter pool. |
http://www.dailydot.com/layer8/trump-clinton-debate-online-polls-4chan-the-donald/
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| The efforts originated from users of the pro-Trump Reddit community r/The_Donald and 4chan messaged boards, which bombarded around 70 polls, including those launched by Time, Fortune, and CNBC. |
| Quote: |
| In this latest incarnation, multiple Reddit users enlisted the Trump-supporting masses on r/The_Donald, which has over 200,000 subscribers, by posting dozens of online polls that are vulnerable to vote brigading, bots, and other forms of manipulation that make these non-scientific surveys notoriously unreliable. |
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The goal, according to comments surrounding the poll-manipulation threads, is to twist the mainstream media narrative that crowned Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton the victor.
Polls that were not open to public voting consistently put Clinton ahead of Trump. In a flash poll by Public Policy Polling, Clinton led Trump 51 to 40. A CNN/ORC poll conducted immediately following the debate found significantly stronger support for Clinton, who topped Trump 62 to 27. |
Why, indeed...
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mercfan3
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| Posted: 09/27/16 2:28 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| mercfan3 wrote: |
| What didn't work for her was that at times, she did come across as over rehearsed. There is a difference between being prepared and being rehearsed and early on (not so much later, when she was subtly antagonizing Donald and letting him self destruct.) she straddled that line, IMO. |
She comes across that way often. Clinton is not a dynamic public speaker. |
Yup, I love Clinton the politician for a lot of reasons. And I think she is exceptional at using her strengths to get where she needs to be.
However, she is a terrible campaigner. For a lot of the same reasons that I think she is a strong public servant, but also..she sucks at public speaking. (She is typically much better at debates because it centers around policy.)
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