RebKell's Junkie Boards

[NoDakSt]

Athlon has two pages of their BB mag dedicated to WBB. It's entitled the "Reign is Over".

Rankings

1. Notre Dame
2. Baylor
3. South Carolina
4.Connecticut
5. Ohio State
6. Louisville
7. Mississippi State
8. Maryland
9. Stanford but this presumed Lily Thompson coming back
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. Florida State
13. Tennessee
14. Arizona State
15. Kentucky
16. Syracuse
17. South Dakota State
18. Oregon State
19. Indiana
20. Auburn
21. Florida
22. Miami
23. Green Bay
24. Washington
25. Missouri

[ArtBest23]

That's a much better top ten ranking than most that I've seen.

The only questionable one is MissSt, and if McCowan really steps up, that's totally realistic

After #12 it becomes more problematic, especially with several grossly overrated SEC teams.

[NoDakSt]

The three Florida P5 schools all getting recognition. The 3 Tobacco Road schools none at all.

[FollowtheCardinalRule]

No love for UCLA with a beast of a player in Monique Billings returning to play alongside Jordin Canada?

[IM in OC]

[Howee]

My gut is telling me L'ville, MD, Kentucky, and Indiana are all a weeee bit high on this ranking. (ESPECIALLY Kentucky!) But none of it is preposterous....right?

_________________
Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"

[summertime blues]

[patsweetpat]

[Fighting Artichoke]

[Howee]

[Shades]

[Fighting Artichoke]

[summertime blues]

[pilight]

Lindy's Preseason rankings

1 Baylor
2 Notre Dame
3 Louisville
4 South Carolina
5 Maryland
6 UConn
7 Ohio State
8 Texas
9 Stanford
10 UCLA
11 Florida State
12 Mississippi State
13 Arizona State
14 Oklahoma
15 Miami (FL)
16 Tennessee
17 Missouri
18 Florida
19 Syracuse
20 Indiana
21 Washington
22 DePaul
23 West Virginia
24 Auburn
25 Oregon State

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[CamrnCrz1974]

Regarding Duke...

Replacing Azura Stevens will be incredibly difficult and will have to be by committee. Replacing Angela Salvadores is much easier, as Lexie Brown (more on her below) is eligible after sitting out per the transfer rules (and is a big upgrade over the talented, but inconsistent Salvadores).

If Duke stays healthy, things can definitely improve over last year and the Blue Devils could finish as high as 3rd (with a few road wins) or 4th in the ACC.

Lexie Brown in the backcourt will add scoring and playmaking. She averaged 13.3 points and 4.5 assists in her sophomore year at Maryland. In her two seasons with the Terps, she shot over 35.4 percent from three. And in her sophomore year, she was named AP Third Team All-American.

This will also take some pressure of Kyra Lambert at the point, as there is someone else who can be a playmaker.

Rebecca Greenwell will likely be at the three. She averaged 15.1 points (44.3 percent overall, 41.7 from three with 2.5 made threes per game) and 5.9 rebounds last year.

Up front, Oderah Chidom (9.6 points, 6.5 rebounds) is back for her senior year. The likely final starting spot will go to senior Kendall Cooper (who missed the second half of the season due to academics) or freshman MCDAA Leaonna Odom.

Now, for some reason, McCallie favors having a "defensive stopper" on the perimeter/wing in the starting lineup who cannot score or shoot with any consistency (e.g., Keturah Jackson). Last year, it was Crystal Primm, who started 14 games, shot 40 percent from the floor, did not make a three, and only hit 59 percent of her free throws, while racking up 26 assists against 50 turnovers - not ideal for a 5-11 guard. Hopefully, she will buck this trend.

If Chidom can hit over 70 percent of her free throws and if Cooper continues to show some range on her shot (as she did in the beginning part of last year), Duke has a very, very talented starting five. The bench will have Odom and a sophomore class who were all ranked in the top 40-50 (Primm, Gorecki, Suggs) and will need to take a step forward this season.

The wild card is Lynee Belton, who is a beast down low, but who has had injury after injury. If - and this is a HUGE if - she is healthy, she gives Duke a monster low block presence. But if she is not, Duke is very thin in terms of post depth, as only one of Cooper/Odom and Erin Mathias are frontcourt players.

The other wild card is McCallie herself. She is known for running the same offensive schemes and not being incredibly creative with her sets or taking advantage of the versatility of her players' skillsets to run different schemes. She also loves the matchup zone on the defensive end, which good teams exploit in the corners. And then there is the matter of the offseason investigation into allegations of player and coach mistreatment.

If McCallie can (somehow) switch things up and throw different looks at teams and can learn to humble herself after this investigation (or at least not get in the way of the talent in the starting lineup), Duke will find itself in the top 25 and the top quarter of the ACC. The non-conference schedule is not particularly challenging, as only South Carolina (in Durham) is an elite opponent. The rest of the schedule consists of Rutgers (road) and a depleted Kentucky team (also in Durham), plus Vanderbilt (road) - none of which is ranked in the Top 25 in the preseason polls or among Rebkell posters. The conference schedule is tougher, as Notre Dame and Florida State are road games, while the Blue Devils play ranked teams Louisville, Miami, and Syracuse at home.

[bacabuck]

I notice that both rankings show Ohio State behind UConn.

I think this is the correct call, since last year, they terrorized us so completely that we may not be able to coax the Buckeyes out of their locker room for the game on Dec. 19th.

[CamrnCrz1974]

One more topic, regarding Duke...

This is McCallie's TENTH season at Duke.

She inherited a roster with eight high school All-Americans (MCDAA) - Wanisha Smith, Abby Waner, Carrem Gay, Krystal Thomas, Jasmine Thomas, Joy Cheek, Bridgette Mitchell.

Since McCallie took over, Duke has had at least five recruiting classes ranked #1 or #2.

Out of 120 MCDAAs from 2010-2014, 12 have gone to Duke - 10 percent (*Note that this does not include players who were named Parade All-Americans or WBCA All-Americans).

This year, she has 7 McDonald's All-Americans on the roster - Lyneé Belton, Oderah Chidom, Kendall Cooper, Rebecca Greenwell, Kyra Lambert, Lexie Brown, and Leaonna Odom.

And yet...

Comparing predecessor Gail Goestenkors' last seven years at Duke with Joanne P. McCallie's nine years at Duke produces the following:

NCAA record:
Goestenkors: 23-7 (one NCAA runner-up, three Final Fours, five years at least making the Elite eight, all seven years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 18-8 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, six years at least making the Sweet 16, two second round losses, one missed NCAA Tournament)

Against Top 5 Opponents:
Goestenkors: 14-14 (50.00 percent)
McCallie: 7-29 (19.44 percent)

Against Top 10 Opponents:
Goestenkors: 25-14 (64.10 percent)
McCallie: 19-37 (33.93 percent)

Against Ranked Opponents:
Goestenkors: 60-20 (80.00 percent)
McCallie: 58-50 (53.701 percent)


The talent, in terms of highly ranked players with tons of high school accolades, is there. The recruiting of high school players has been excellent. But the player development is severely lacking.

Duke went from a perennial national title contender (or at least in the discussion) during Goestenkors' final seven years (which does not even include her Elite Eight run in 1998 and Final Four/national runner-up in 1999) to an also-ran and a program with a tremendous history and little results. Four Elite Eights in 9 seasons? Very good. 6 Sweet 16s? Good - but not good for a coach who was expressly hired to lead Duke to the only thing the program was missing...the national title (Joe Alleva's words).

The win total has dropped the last four years, from 33 wins (and the Elite Eight) in 2013 to 28 wins (and a second round loss at home) in 2014 to 23 wins (and making the Sweet 16 after barely surviving at home during the first two rounds) in 2015 to 20 wins (and missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over two decades) in 2016.

Her contract runs through 2018-2019. She earns over $800,000 per year. Buying out a coach with that long left on her deal at that amount in the most expensive non-revenue sport, plus having to pay the new coach, is not an option. But if Duke cannot buck the trend in recent years, the program will wither away until a new coach comes in.

On the other hand, McCallie has been lucky (or smart) with certain things. She watered down the non-conference schedule (no more UConn, no more Stanford) to get more wins. Duke's ACC partners (two games) are Wake and UNC (and UNC is in turmoil). And even though Lexie Brown and Rebecca Greenwell could leave after this year as they are graduating, they may stay for their respective final years of eligibility to attend Fuqua, meaning she would only lose Chidom and Cooper and could eek out another season of 20 wins with that backcourt.

As always with Joanne P. McCallie, we are waiting to see what happens...and what lessons will be learned.

[Howee]

[Shades]

[bacabuck]

[summertime blues]

[bacabuck]

[Shades]

[Howee]

[bacabuck]