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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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 Posted: 03/10/15 8:07 am ::: (13) Princeton at Pennsylvania 3.10.15 |
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5pm
cbssportsnetwork
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 03/10/15 10:06 am ::: |
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This is the one game that can trip the Tigers facing last year's Ivy champs.
Alright my fellow Quakers, give em hell.
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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| Posted: 03/10/15 4:12 pm ::: |
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| Tigers up 8-4 @ 15:00.
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Ex-Ref
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Ex-Ref
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| Posted: 03/10/15 4:51 pm ::: |
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| Princeton up 26-21 @ halftime.
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cthskzfn
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| Posted: 03/10/15 4:55 pm ::: |
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| I have a feeling Princeton will start hitting their 3s and win by about 20. (kiss of death)
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 03/10/15 5:06 pm ::: |
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Tigers only up 1 With 15 min to go.
So what will Princeton's seed be if they lose this game?
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Ex-Ref
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| Posted: 03/10/15 5:19 pm ::: |
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| Wow, didn't know about the Obama connection.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 03/10/15 5:25 pm ::: |
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| Princeton now up 11 with eight minutes to go.
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cthskzfn
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| Posted: 03/10/15 5:25 pm ::: |
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| P up 9 7:44
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cthskzfn
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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| Posted: 03/10/15 10:48 pm ::: |
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| if Princeton ends up a #5 or #6 seed, I see them getting knocked out in the round of 32 anyway. Easy to achieve a perfect record when you're not facing any tough competition.
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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| Posted: 03/10/15 11:19 pm ::: |
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| toad455 wrote: |
| if Princeton ends up a #5 or #6 seed, I see them getting knocked out in the round of 32 anyway. Easy to achieve a perfect record when you're not facing any tough competition. |
It's not easy. Even if you have a 95% chance of winning every game (number I picked out of the air), there's a 78.5% chance you'll lose at least once.
These teams, all expected to get 3-5 seeds, all have a loss to teams that aren't supposed to be "tough competition":
George Washington: at St Louis
Louisville: at Virginia
Kentucky: at Ole Miss
Duke: at Boston College
Stanford: at Arizona, at Oregon
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FS02
Joined: 19 Jul 2006
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| Posted: 03/10/15 11:47 pm ::: |
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| SpaceJunkie wrote: |
| toad455 wrote: |
| if Princeton ends up a #5 or #6 seed, I see them getting knocked out in the round of 32 anyway. Easy to achieve a perfect record when you're not facing any tough competition. |
It's not easy. Even if you have a 95% chance of winning every game (number I picked out of the air), there's a 78.5% chance you'll lose at least once.
These teams, all expected to get 3-5 seeds, all have a loss to teams that aren't supposed to be "tough competition":
George Washington: at St Louis
Louisville: at Virginia
Kentucky: at Ole Miss
Duke: at Boston College
Stanford: at Arizona, at Oregon |
Princeton clobbered middling Big 10 team Michigan by 30 points. That's one game, but you have to think they could potentially take out a 4-seed with that type of performance.
On the other hand, it looks like no one else in the Ivy League really has an OOC win to speak of, other than Harvard over Quinnipiac.
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Matt5762
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| Posted: 03/11/15 10:40 am ::: |
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I think the other thing lost in perception is the value of where all Princeton's best wins took place. As SpaceJunkie's post demonstrates, winning on the road, even against lesser teams, is not always easy.
In fact, winning on the road at Pitt and Michigan are better wins that winning at home against say North Carolina or Kentucky - according to objective ratings like Sagarin when you factor in HCA. Similarly, road wins at American, Penn and Fordham are better than home wins over LSU, Tulane or West Virginia.
Rough equivalencies based on current Sagarin ratings and HCA:
Home win vs #10 ~= road win vs #35
Home win vs #20 ~= road win vs #54
Home win vs #50 ~= road win vs #95
So I wonder where people would think Princeton should be seeded if their 5 best wins were instead all at home over UNC, KY, LSU, Tulane and WVU? Probably a #2? Maybe a #1?
It's one thing to make minor RPI adjustments for road wins, but another entirely to understand what they really mean when analyzing a team's resume in depth. Sadly from Princeton, I don't think the committee has much incentive to do so because it would do no favors to the BCS teams most of them represent who play 80-90% of the non-conference schedule at home.
I would not be surprised at all if Princeton is seeded lower than a team like Mississippi State who looks the part but in fact has not even one RPI top 100 win outside the state of Mississippi. 
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/15 10:48 am ::: |
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| I appreciate the Princetons of the WCB world but my eyeball test tells me a middling SEC team would beat them handily most times despite my wishing otherwise.
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linkster
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| Posted: 03/12/15 12:52 pm ::: |
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| cthskzfn wrote: |
| I appreciate the Princetons of the WCB world but my eyeball test tells me a middling SEC team would beat them handily most times despite my wishing otherwise. |
I'd agree if there were refs using the SEC standards of what is and is not a foul, but if the game was called using PAC12 standards the Tigers could be very competitive.
The other thing Princeton has going for it is the large number of upperclassmen among the leading scorers. Often, young teams underperform on the NCAA stage. I guess that as many games are lost by poor performance as are won by great performance.Princeton has but one senior among it's leading scorers but the rest are all juniors.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/15 1:46 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| I appreciate the Princetons of the WCB world but my eyeball test tells me a middling SEC team would beat them handily most times despite my wishing otherwise. |
I'd agree if there were refs using the SEC standards of what is and is not a foul, but if the game was called using PAC12 standards the Tigers could be very competitive.
The other thing Princeton has going for it is the large number of upperclassmen among the leading scorers. Often, young teams underperform on the NCAA stage. I guess that as many games are lost by poor performance as are won by great performance.Princeton has but one senior among it's leading scorers but the rest are all juniors. |
I'd be happy to see your theory come to fruition.
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