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Is RPI recovery possible for a mid major?

 
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dtrain34



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 7:15 pm    ::: Is RPI recovery possible for a mid major? Reply Reply with quote

Here's my question:

My favorite team, New Mexico State, crapped the bed coming out of the gate at 0-5 and plummeted almost to the very bottom of the RPI barrel at 345.

They then win three straight -- over a D2 which I know doesn't affect RPI, over then #124 New Mexico and then #260 or so North Dakota State -- and DROPPED to 347!

It's unlikely the Aggies are the third-to-worst team in the land (Sagarin has them at 273, Womens Basketball State at 290 or so) and in their weak conference RPI is meaningless; first place team in the WAC goes to the NCAAs, second to the WNIT, no one else goes anywhere unless they pay their way into one of the tertiary post season events.

But just out of curiosity, with a weak schedule ahead, is NMSU locked into 347th? Having just beat two teams well above that and dropped in the rankings, I'm guessing no wins will help and all losses will be further disaster.


pilight



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 7:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If they keep winning the RPI will improve.



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dtrain34



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 7:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'd hope so but the question is how? That's what I'm curious about.

If you beat two teams ranked much higher and drop -- and have no top 100 games left -- who can you beat that helps you move up? At what point does your own W-L overcome the superior opponents and opponents opponents W-L of other teams?


pilight



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 8:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

dtrain34 wrote:
I'd hope so but the question is how? That's what I'm curious about.

If you beat two teams ranked much higher and drop -- and have no top 100 games left -- who can you beat that helps you move up? At what point does your own W-L overcome the superior opponents and opponents opponents W-L of other teams?


The other teams down there will be losing games. That's what moves you up.



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dtrain34



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 8:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ahhhhh now I get it.

Obviously they need to keep winning. Coaches made some changes for the better so there's hope of that.


patsweetpat



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 8:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

dtrain34 wrote:
I'd hope so but the question is how? That's what I'm curious about.

If you beat two teams ranked much higher and drop -- and have no top 100 games left -- who can you beat that helps you move up? At what point does your own W-L overcome the superior opponents and opponents opponents W-L of other teams?


Various adjustments (i.e., road win bonus vs. home loss penalty) aside, RPI is 25% your team's record, 50% the records of your opponents, and 25% the records of your opponents' opponents.

So yes, after its loss on 11/29, NMSU went 2-0 (not including its D-II opponent), which helps NMSU's RPI. But in that same window of time, NMSU's opponents went 7-17, which hurts NMSU's RPI more than those 2 wins helped it. Furthermore, the 2 opponents NMSU played within that window had combined records of 4-7 coming into that 11/29-12/16 timeframe, and those records also got added to the crucial 50% record-of-your-opponents scoring factor… making for a pretty-bad 11-24 opponent record being negatively factored into NMSU's RPI since 11/29, more than overcoming the positive impact of NMSU's own 2-0 record since that same point.

I'm not gonna take the time to look up NMSU's opponents' opponents record in that same period, but those have to be factored in as well.

The upshot of it all is that a team's nice wins can be counteracted in the RPI by the current losses of teams it played previously, as well as the prior losses of teams it's playing currently. Not to mention the losses taken by the teams played by the teams it played.

NMSU needs to keep winning games, and NMSU's opponents (past and future) need to stop losing games. If that happens, NMSU's RPI will go up.

I'm from Orting, by the way, over by Puyallup. Not too far from Lacey. Hi.


dtrain34



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 11:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hey, Pat, thanks.

Well they just "stunned" #209 Cal Poly tonight, 79-65, so we'll see if that helped at all.

Appreciate the explanation. I remembered after I started all this that Womens Basketball State runs a sheet with all of that for each team, including foes' foes so I'll take closer looks at that.

Very familiar with Orting. I coached Tumwater girls last two seasons and my C-team coach was a T-Bird grad who loved her school so much she would commute every day from Orting! Also was out there a couple of times for AAU tourneys.


beknighted



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PostPosted: 12/16/14 11:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It's worth noting that the opponents record and opponents opponents record components of RPI converge towards .500 as the season goes on, so they actually become less and less important in the RPI rankings. The most important component is W/L, so a team that goes on a long run can move up significantly.


dtrain34



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PostPosted: 12/17/14 11:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NMSU surged to 343 after the win over #209.

Looks like if they go undefeated the rest of the regular season they could be a majestic 255 or so Smile


WayneBearCal



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PostPosted: 12/20/14 3:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

dtrain34 wrote:
... I remembered after I started all this that Womens Basketball State runs a sheet with all of that for each team, including foes' foes so I'll take closer looks at that ...


Yes, WBBState's DeepRPI page gives a great snapshot of each team.

One of the biggest concerns for top mid-majors hoping for an at-large bid (in case they don't win the conference tournament) is that even after earning a good non-conference RPI, their RPI may sink once they start playing the lowly teams in their own conference. That lower overall RPI ends up being a blemish even though it's just a function of being in a weaker conference.

New Mexico State on the other hand is looking at this from the opposite perspective - RPI's in the WAC may look bad now, but that's because they're collectively taking their lumps in non-conference play. Once their records even out with conference play (the convergence to .500 that beknighted mentioned), could that help them collectively move up vs. other conferences?

WarrenNolan answers that hypothetical to some degree in its prediction pages. While no one would seriously try to predict the outcome of all remaining games based on current RPI, it is an interesting exercise to see which teams' RPIs would tend to float up or down based on their remaining schedule. According to the following page, if NMSU keeps playing in accordance with their current RPI, they will float closer towards but not quite into the top 300 as the season progresses. If you expect your team to improve, then they could very well earn that 2 handle. Bakersfield on the other hand would suffer the expected fate of watching their RPI sink as they go though the conference.

http://warrennolan.com/basketballw/2015/predictedstandings

Good luck to your team (and favorite player) for the rest of the season.



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dtrain34



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PostPosted: 12/20/14 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks Wayne. They somehow took their biggest jump up after a LOSS to 8-2 UOP last night. Understandable per Sagarin and wbbstate because they factor point spread and the game was close but wasn't expecting a 10-step hop in RPI.

NMSU knows the deal though.... win the WAC and take a thumping from UConn in the NCAAs or come in second and square off with the WCC runner up in the WNIT. RPI is just a curiosity in the current iteration of the WAC.


dtrain34



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PostPosted: 01/17/15 12:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Just to follow up, NMSU has won 9 of 10 and is now RPI'ed at 171, so they did rise up quite a bit.


linkster



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PostPosted: 01/17/15 2:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

dtrain34 wrote:
I'd hope so but the question is how? That's what I'm curious about.

If you beat two teams ranked much higher and drop -- and have no top 100 games left -- who can you beat that helps you move up? At what point does your own W-L overcome the superior opponents and opponents opponents W-L of other teams?


Sorry to say, but you are screwed. It's better to lose every game laft, as long as those teams have very good records and play other teams with very good players. That's 75% of the RPI score.

I read an article that showed how a team could go winless for an entire season and get a top 50 RPI. That's because 75% of a team's RPI is really a measure of their SOS.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2011/03/ratings_madness.1.html

RPI is very useful if you are comparing 2 teams with similar W-L records or even 5 or 6 teams with similar W-L records as the NCAA faces when they have 4 tournament slots and a half dozen teams to choose from, none of whom have played each other. Other than that RPI is used mostly by fans of the big 5 conferences to brag about their teams.

here's an old, but very good critique of RPI:

http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/rpi.html


linkster



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PostPosted: 01/17/15 3:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

As of today, 1-17-15, USF (14-3) is 24th in NCAA RPI.

Realtime RPI has them 22nd with a No. of .6333

Tomorrow they play UConn. Let's see how their RPI changes if they lose. Or if they win.


1/18/15 edit: As of Sat afternoon USF's RPI dropped to .6297. They lost to UConn by 40+ points this afternoon. New RPI pending.




Last edited by linkster on 01/18/15 3:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 01/17/15 4:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
dtrain34 wrote:
I'd hope so but the question is how? That's what I'm curious about.

If you beat two teams ranked much higher and drop -- and have no top 100 games left -- who can you beat that helps you move up? At what point does your own W-L overcome the superior opponents and opponents opponents W-L of other teams?


Sorry to say, but you are screwed. It's better to lose every game laft, as long as those teams have very good records and play other teams with very good players. That's 75% of the RPI score.

I read an article that showed how a team could go winless for an entire season and get a top 50 RPI. That's because 75% of a team's RPI is really a measure of their SOS.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2011/03/ratings_madness.1.html

RPI is very useful if you are comparing 2 teams with similar W-L records or even 5 or 6 teams with similar W-L records as the NCAA faces when they have 4 tournament slots and a half dozen teams to choose from, none of whom have played each other. Other than that RPI is used mostly by fans of the big 5 conferences to brag about their teams.

here's an old, but very good critique of RPI:

http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/rpi.html



"I remember when you used to make somewhat insightful, basketball posts. Now you seem to make posts of hyperbole in order to inflame".

Laughing Laughing Laughing



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linkster



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PostPosted: 01/18/15 3:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
linkster wrote:
Other than that RPI is used mostly by fans of the big 5 conferences to brag about their teams.

here's an old, but very good critique of RPI:

http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/rpi.html



"I remember when you used to make somewhat insightful, basketball posts. Now you seem to make posts of hyperbole in order to inflame".

Laughing Laughing Laughing


Wait till March. There will be many fans who will use RPI to justify why their team belongs in the NCAA's despite having a much worse record than another, mid-major team. They will, with few if any exceptions, be fans of P5 conference teams. My comment may have been blunt but I think it's accurate.




Last edited by linkster on 01/18/15 3:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 01/18/15 3:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
As of today, 1-17-15, USF (14-3) is 24th in NCAA RPI.

Realtime RPI has them 22nd with a No. of .6333

Tomorrow they play UConn. Let's see how their RPI changes if they lose. Or if they win.


1/18/15 edit: As of Sat afternoon USF's RPI dropped to .6297. They lost to UConn by 40+ points this afternoon. New RPI pending.


Their RPI is now ,6381 (pending outcomes of other games involving their opponents and their opponents' opponents). Rank at the moment is 23.

It was predictable it would go up because of the factor of playing 16-1 UConn. That's the biggest boost USF will get all year despite losing. But USF will get dinged on the "opponent's opponents" portion when UConn plays 6-11 UCF and 5-12 Cincy this week.

UConn also got an RPI boost playing 14-4 USF but will take a big hit on its next two games.


linkster



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PostPosted: 01/18/15 3:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
linkster wrote:
As of today, 1-17-15, USF (14-3) is 24th in NCAA RPI.

Realtime RPI has them 22nd with a No. of .6333

Tomorrow they play UConn. Let's see how their RPI changes if they lose. Or if they win.


1/18/15 edit: As of Sat afternoon USF's RPI dropped to .6297. They lost to UConn by 40+ points this afternoon. New RPI pending.


Their RPI is now ,6381 (pending outcomes of other games involving their opponents and their opponents' opponents). Rank at the moment is 23.

It was predictable it would go up because of the factor of playing 16-1 UConn. That's the biggest boost USF will get all year despite losing. But USF will get dinged on the "opponent's opponents" portion when UConn plays 6-11 UCF and 5-12 Cincy this week.

UConn also got an RPI boost playing 14-4 USF but will take a big hit on its next two games.


Actually USF will play UConn again in the last game of the regular season. I'm not sure if they count conference tournament games in the RPI but that could be another UConn game.

While I understand the formula it still seems odd that a 40+ point loss improves a team's claim to a NCAA slot while some of their wins may likely worsen that claim RPI-wise.


dtrain34



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PostPosted: 01/20/15 7:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Cutting to the chase, linkster commented than NMSU was "screwed" AFTER I pointed out they had risen 176 places in the RPI after all. Realistically it will be exceedingly hard for any WAC team to reach even the Top 100 so making into the top half from near rock-bottom feels OK for now, not "screwed."


linkster



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PostPosted: 01/20/15 7:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

dtrain34 wrote:
Cutting to the chase, linkster commented than NMSU was "screwed" AFTER I pointed out they had risen 176 places in the RPI after all. Realistically it will be exceedingly hard for any WAC team to reach even the Top 100 so making into the top half from near rock-bottom feels OK for now, not "screwed."


Sorry, didn't mean to be rude but the only thing RPI is used for is to get into the NCAA's. That's the only way your screwed. If you are in a minor conference and don't get an auto-bid for winning it you are screwed as far as making it.

New Mexico St's highest RPI opponent left is No 150 Cal St Bakersfield. They also have 8 games with RPI 300+ teams and NMSU may sink lower on the RPI list even if they win them all because 75% of the RPI is based on your opponents and their opponents.


dtrain34



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PostPosted: 01/22/15 8:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Linkster, I've BEEN knowing that.

RPI is just entertainment for WAC fans. Champ to the dance, runnerup to the NIT and that's it unless you buy a spot to one of the tertiary events.

My original question was only about how a team with low rated foes could ever get out the 340s and they did. But a WAC team can go 32-1 and if that "1" is the wrong "1" no NCAAs for them, everyone is aware if that!


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