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Tomorrow's ESPN poll should be interesting
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Phil



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 11:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
BTW, when was the last time (if ever) that 4 teams got first place votes in the Coaches' Poll?


You beat me to it, I was just going to ask that question.


Phil



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 11:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Oldfandepot2 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
FollowtheCardinalRule wrote:
The voters got it right. Cool


Well, some of them did. UConn still got four 1st place votes, which is laughable.

Bet Tenn fans aren't happy. 5th place, behind UConn, and it's not even close.


Agree, Art. Who did Tennessee piss off and how.


Let's see if I understand this. Connecticut was ranked number one, lost to the new Number one team in the country, in OT, on their home court, while Tennessee has beaten two unranked teams. What exactly is the reason TN fans are pissed off? Oh way I get it, they are TN fans. Nevermind.


FollowtheCardinalRule



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 12:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I fail to see the problem. UConn still are the defending champs, they have the best player in the nation, and they nearly beat the new no. 1 team on the road in one of the toughest environments to play in the country. Just look at Stanford's 82 home unbeaten streak that was the longest in the country for a breif period in 2012. Stanford now has won 28 straight games at home. The last time Stanford lost at home was on January 13, 2013, versus California. Since the 2007-2008 season, Stanford has lost just two games at home, only losing to UConn and Cal in the 2012-2013 season, incidentally the same season that Stanford failed to make the final four.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 1:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phil wrote:
Oldfandepot2 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
FollowtheCardinalRule wrote:
The voters got it right. Cool


Well, some of them did. UConn still got four 1st place votes, which is laughable.

Bet Tenn fans aren't happy. 5th place, behind UConn, and it's not even close.


Agree, Art. Who did Tennessee piss off and how.


Let's see if I understand this. Connecticut was ranked number one, lost to the new Number one team in the country, in OT, on their home court, while Tennessee has beaten two unranked teams. What exactly is the reason TN fans are pissed off? Oh way I get it, they are TN fans. Nevermind.


Why? Because that's the way the polls work, that's why. You lose, you drop. Particularly early in the season. It's not like this was a 1 vs 2 matchup. If this was anyone else they would have dropped to 5 or 6.

Tenn may have beaten two nobodies, but UConn has beaten one nobody and lost to one somebody who the voters had actually believed was not as good as Tenn. So what has UConn done to deserve being ranked higher?

Heck, for all we know UConn might still be the best team, and if they are they have a few opportunities to show it. But that's not the point. There are certain "protocols" usually followed in the polls, and when they depart from those they lose the little credibility they have. But there are voters who are always going to overrank UConn. Case in point, the four who still voted them number 1. Call it the "Geno bonus" if you will. Which is why I predicted they'd be ahead of Tenn. I certainly am not a Tenn fan, but I can understand their view of this, and if I was, I'd call foul too. Which is why I said they're probably pissed off.


Oldfandepot2



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 2:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phil wrote:
Oldfandepot2 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
FollowtheCardinalRule wrote:
The voters got it right. Cool


Well, some of them did. UConn still got four 1st place votes, which is laughable.

Bet Tenn fans aren't happy. 5th place, behind UConn, and it's not even close.


Agree, Art. Who did Tennessee piss off and how.


Let's see if I understand this. Connecticut was ranked number one, lost to the new Number one team in the country, in OT, on their home court, while Tennessee has beaten two unranked teams. What exactly is the reason TN fans are pissed off? Oh way I get it, they are TN fans. Nevermind.

First of all, Phil I am a Connecticut native who has followed the Huskies since the days of Toby Kimball.
UCONN lost, obviously but equally as obvious Tennessee did what they were supposed to do, win. Whether the Vols beat an unranked or ranked team, they did what they were supposed to do, win. Stanford was rewarded by being elevated to a higher ranking and deservedly so, UCONN was dropped but Tennessee which did what it was supposed to do was dropped nonetheless. I believe again my humble opinion there is so far a team like UCONN can be dropped and fifth is far enough.


With it being this early in the season, there is such a small sample, that there is little to rely on and we all know that for sure these ranking are going to change especially this year. I believe what is fair and fair to me In my opinion is The Vols should be ranked right now ahead of the Huskies.

I have the belief that I can enjoy and appreciate the entire women's game much more if I try to set my homerism aside (which is difficult sometimes) and look at it as fairly and objectively as possible. With that said The Vols four and UCONN five,



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Phil



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 2:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
Phil wrote:
Oldfandepot2 wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
FollowtheCardinalRule wrote:
The voters got it right. Cool


Well, some of them did. UConn still got four 1st place votes, which is laughable.

Bet Tenn fans aren't happy. 5th place, behind UConn, and it's not even close.


Agree, Art. Who did Tennessee piss off and how.


Let's see if I understand this. Connecticut was ranked number one, lost to the new Number one team in the country, in OT, on their home court, while Tennessee has beaten two unranked teams. What exactly is the reason TN fans are pissed off? Oh way I get it, they are TN fans. Nevermind.


Why? Because that's the way the polls work, that's why. You lose, you drop.


I know how the polls work. They lost they dropped. That wasn't the question.


Particularly early in the season. It's not like this was a 1 vs 2 matchup. If this was anyone else they would have dropped to 5 or 6.

You have no way of knowing that. But if you show be another season where the number 1 lost on OT away to a team ranked number 6 and dropped to 5th or lower, I'll concede your point.


Tenn may have beaten two nobodies, but UConn has beaten one nobody and lost to one somebody who the voters had actually believed was not as good as Tenn. So what has UConn done to deserve being ranked higher?

Already explained.

Heck, for all we know UConn might still be the best team, and if they are they have a few opportunities to show it. But that's not the point. There are certain "protocols" usually followed in the polls, and when they depart from those they lose the little credibility they have. But there are voters who are always going to overrank UConn. Case in point, the four who still voted them number 1. Call it the "Geno bonus" if you will. Which is why I predicted they'd be ahead of Tenn. I certainly am not a Tenn fan, but I can understand their view of this, and if I was, I'd call foul too. Which is why I said they're probably pissed off.


Yes, there are certain protocols, none of which were violated.


Phil



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 2:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The voters who picked UConn number 1 after the loss can be questioned. However, if every single one of those 4 voters moved UConn down a spot, they would still have come in at #4. If all four dropped UConn two spots, they would still be #4. If every single one of the 32 voters dropped UConn a spot, they would still be #4.

UConn didn't poll ahead of TN because a couple starry eyed voters stuck with a top seed.

I have seen situations where I thought the usual protocols led to a wrong decision, but this isn't one of them. Not even close.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 2:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phil wrote:
The voters who picked UConn number 1 after the loss can be questioned. However, if every single one of those 4 voters moved UConn down a spot, they would still have come in at #4. If all four dropped UConn two spots, they would still be #4. If every single one of the 32 voters dropped UConn a spot, they would still be #4.

UConn didn't poll ahead of TN because a couple starry eyed voters stuck with a top seed.

I have seen situations where I thought the usual protocols led to a wrong decision, but this isn't one of them. Not even close.


As I said, those four are just the visible manifestation of the Geno bonus. We don't get to see how many others just as ridiculously voted them ## 2 or 3.

And I know you'd like to justify the outcome but your assumption about what would happen is not mathematically correct. It's a zero sum game. If every voter droped UConn 1 spot those points have to go somewhere. If they all in turn raised Tenn 1 spot, Tenn would be higher. Plus, those number 1 votes are off by more than just one spot.


Phil



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 3:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Oldfandepot2 wrote:

First of all, Phil I am a Connecticut native who has followed the Huskies since the days of Toby Kimball.
UCONN lost, obviously but equally as obvious Tennessee did what they were supposed to do, win. Whether the Vols beat an unranked or ranked team, they did what they were supposed to do, win. Stanford was rewarded by being elevated to a higher ranking and deservedly so, UCONN was dropped but Tennessee which did what it was supposed to do was dropped nonetheless. I believe again my humble opinion there is so far a team like UCONN can be dropped and fifth is far enough.


With it being this early in the season, there is such a small sample, that there is little to rely on and we all know that for sure these ranking are going to change especially this year. I believe what is fair and fair to me In my opinion is The Vols should be ranked right now ahead of the Huskies.

I have the belief that I can enjoy and appreciate the entire women's game much more if I try to set my homerism aside (which is difficult sometimes) and look at it as fairly and objectively as possible. With that said The Vols four and UCONN five,


Sorry, but your logic is flawed. TAMU did what it was supposed to and won. Not only that, but they won three games. Not only that, but they beat a ranked team, something Tennessee has not done. By your logic, TAMU did what they were supposed to and won, while UConn lost, so UConn should have dropped below teams that did what they were supposed to. My guess is that you do not think UConn should be dropped below TAMU or Louisville or Maryland or any of the other teams who did what they were supposed to do, so why do you feel differently about TN?

So maybe your emphasis isn't that TN simply did what they were supposed to do but they did what they were supposed to do and dropped. On the surface that seems unfair, but you have to look at the facts.

First look at TAMU. They could be complaining that they not only did what they were supposed to do, but won more games than anyone else, plus knocked off a ranked team and dropped form fifth to sixth. There's a team that has at least a plausible argument for complaint. Why didn't they go ahead of TN? What does it take to demonstrate that they are better than TN?

However, the flaw in TAMU's argument, if they were to make that argument, is the same as the flaw in your argument. It isn't really the case that TAMU dropped, it is more the case that Stanford moved up. It isn't always easy to figure out whether one team moved up or another team moved down, but they are signs. There are 32 voters. If the vote count moves down by roughly 32, then then team moved down. If the movement is well less than 32, then another team probably moved up. (It is a bit more complicated than this, but this works as a rough measure).

In the case of TAMU, they had 630 points in week one, then 613. That's a 17 point drop, well under 32, so it is more plausible to say Stanford was moved ahead than to say that TAMU dropped.

The case is even stronger with TN. They had 683 votes to start with, then "dropped" to 675, only a movement of 8 points, which is only a quarter of a position per voter. Moreover, if every voter agreed perfectly on the rankings, first place would have 800 points, second 768 etc. 683 points would "naturally" be solidly in fifth place (672 would be the exact spot for fifth place if all voters agreed) so it is more the case that TN was benefiting in the first week due to the happenstance of voting (which is perfectly understandable so early in the season) and now with 675 points is about where they would be expected to be.

In a nutshell, the voters thought that an Ogwumike-free team would be weaker, so moved the final 4 team down a couple notches. The performance seems to suggest the concerns were overblown, so Stanford was moved back up.

If Tennessee wants a high ranking early in the season (can't think why) they should play some real teams early. If they want to play a bunch of nobodies early, that's their call, and may be a good strategy, but you can't play nobodies and then complain that the voters aren't giving you the love you deserve (of course evidence shows that TN fans can complain about anything, so I really simply means that they can't do so and be taken seriously by fans with a clue.)




Last edited by Phil on 11/19/14 4:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
Phil



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 3:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
Phil wrote:
The voters who picked UConn number 1 after the loss can be questioned. However, if every single one of those 4 voters moved UConn down a spot, they would still have come in at #4. If all four dropped UConn two spots, they would still be #4. If every single one of the 32 voters dropped UConn a spot, they would still be #4.

UConn didn't poll ahead of TN because a couple starry eyed voters stuck with a top seed.

I have seen situations where I thought the usual protocols led to a wrong decision, but this isn't one of them. Not even close.


As I said, those four are just the visible manifestation of the Geno bonus. We don't get to see how many others just as ridiculously voted them ## 2 or 3.

And I know you'd like to justify the outcome but your assumption about what would happen is not mathematically correct. It's a zero sum game. If every voter droped UConn 1 spot those points have to go somewhere. If they all in turn raised Tenn 1 spot, Tenn would be higher. Plus, those number 1 votes are off by more than just one spot.


I know it is a zero sum game. However, it is absurd to assume that if every single voters dropped UConn one spot, that every single one of those votes would go to TN. The two teams are separated by 61 points, so it would take literally everyone moving UConn down one and TN up one for a switch to occur. But that's not a likely event. If someone who thought UConn was the top team, decided to rethink that, it is far more likely that they would move UConn down a spot and move up Stanford, ND or even SC. Similarly, for the voters who had UConn in second, if they decided to move UConn down to third, they are more likely to move up whichever of Stanford, ND or SC that they had in third, up to the 2 spot. If every single voter moved UConn down one spot, and as few as 4 of them elevated a team other than TN, then the ranking order would be exactly the same.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 3:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

aTm probably has a better case for being ahead of Tenn than does UConn. And they might well have moved up except that their 2 pt struggle against UTPA took some of the luster off their DePaul win.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 4:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

am I the only one who thinks it's great we can even be having this discussion?

yes, it will likely somewhat iron itself out over the next month or two, but still I love it that it's possible to have these differing opinions now.



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Phil



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PostPosted: 11/19/14 4:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
am I the only one who thinks it's great we can even be having this discussion?

yes, it will likely somewhat iron itself out over the next month or two, but still I love it that it's possible to have these differing opinions now.


Exactly


willtalk



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PostPosted: 11/20/14 8:10 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
willtalk wrote:
OK! Out of all those teams mentioned which one has the most impressive win to date. Most preseason are somewhat arbitrary right. So when do the rankings start to reflect actual wins? Mostly everyone's preseason pick was Uconn and most believed they were in a class by themselves and might even finish undefeated. So because Stanford beats them does that mean that Uconn was over rated or was Stanford underrated? The same could hold true for every other team ranked highly in the polls. The only logical solution is to actually start going by strength of wins and that should put the Stanford in the lead presently. If that will actually happen is another story but to me that seems to be the most logical.


No one is going to do that after one or two games. If they did Monday's AP polls would have to have read:

1. Texas A&M
2. Washington St.
3. James Madison
4. UNC
5. Gonzaga
.
.
.
because those five were the only teams with wins over ranked opponents.

Would you really believe that would have been the correct ranking?

The subjectivity of the polls may cause lots of hair pulling, and plainly is full of human biases, but your solution is also plainly not the right answer.

Even supposedly totally objective and formulaic computer polls use last year's data for the first month or more of the season because you can't accept as meaningful the absurd results or volatility that utilizing a totally inadequate data sample would produce.


There is quite a difference between beating a ranked opponent and beating a top five or ten ranked opponent. Beating an opponent ranked higher than you are ranked should move you up. My example (as reflected in my last two sentences was only in respect to Stanford and not all those other teams you mentioned. Granted taking one of my examples literally could lead someone to such a conclusion but it was never meant in that respect unless you want to nitpick wording.

It should seem obvious that even if Uconn was not as good as predicted they are still at least one of the best teams in the country so a win over them should count highly when put in contrast to far lesser wins by the other top teams in the preseason polls. Much different than a win over just one of 25 ranked teams which might totally disappear from the rankings by seasons end. This is what I meant by asking which team had the most impressive win so far this season. I don't believe anyone would disagree it was Stanford so they should at this time be ranked first. I didn't think it was necessary to clarify everything.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/20/14 9:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

willtalk wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
willtalk wrote:
OK! Out of all those teams mentioned which one has the most impressive win to date. Most preseason are somewhat arbitrary right. So when do the rankings start to reflect actual wins? Mostly everyone's preseason pick was Uconn and most believed they were in a class by themselves and might even finish undefeated. So because Stanford beats them does that mean that Uconn was over rated or was Stanford underrated? The same could hold true for every other team ranked highly in the polls. The only logical solution is to actually start going by strength of wins and that should put the Stanford in the lead presently. If that will actually happen is another story but to me that seems to be the most logical.


No one is going to do that after one or two games. If they did Monday's AP polls would have to have read:

1. Texas A&M
2. Washington St.
3. James Madison
4. UNC
5. Gonzaga
.
.
.
because those five were the only teams with wins over ranked opponents.

Would you really believe that would have been the correct ranking?

The subjectivity of the polls may cause lots of hair pulling, and plainly is full of human biases, but your solution is also plainly not the right answer.

Even supposedly totally objective and formulaic computer polls use last year's data for the first month or more of the season because you can't accept as meaningful the absurd results or volatility that utilizing a totally inadequate data sample would produce.


There is quite a difference between beating a ranked opponent and beating a top five or ten ranked opponent. Beating an opponent ranked higher than you are ranked should move you up. My example (as reflected in my last two sentences was only in respect to Stanford and not all those other teams you mentioned. Granted taking one of my examples literally could lead someone to such a conclusion but it was never meant in that respect unless you want to nitpick wording.

It should seem obvious that even if Uconn was not as good as predicted they are still at least one of the best teams in the country so a win over them should count highly when put in contrast to far lesser wins by the other top teams in the preseason polls. Much different than a win over just one of 25 ranked teams which might totally disappear from the rankings by seasons end. This is what I meant by asking which team had the most impressive win so far this season. I don't believe anyone would disagree it was Stanford so they should at this time be ranked first. I didn't think it was necessary to clarify everything.


So if Texas beats Stanford tonight I will look forward to your post arguing that they shouod be ranked #1 next week. Or if Clemson beats S.Car tonight they should be ##2 or 3 next week, right?


Phil



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PostPosted: 11/20/14 10:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:


So if Texas beats Stanford tonight I will look forward to your post arguing that they shouod be ranked #1 next week. Or if Clemson beats S.Car tonight they should be ##2 or 3 next week, right?


If you read what willtalk said, it was “Beating an opponent ranked higher than you are ranked should move you up. “ It did not say “Beating an opponent ranked higher than you are ranked should move you up to #1”


summertime blues



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PostPosted: 11/20/14 11:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

JMU plays Maryland on Black Friday. If they win, that should put them into the rankings. That would be nice, especially since I think they are underrated this year as usual. I'm hoping to *maybe* make it to the Pitt game this Sunday.



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/20/14 11:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phil wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:


So if Texas beats Stanford tonight I will look forward to your post arguing that they shouod be ranked #1 next week. Or if Clemson beats S.Car tonight they should be ##2 or 3 next week, right?


If you read what willtalk said, it was “Beating an opponent ranked higher than you are ranked should move you up. “ It did not say “Beating an opponent ranked higher than you are ranked should move you up to #1”


Maybe you should read the entire discussion like the part where willtalk argued for Stanford being #1 by saying " The only logical solution is to actually start going by strength of wins and that should put the Stanford in the lead presently. "

I'm sure willtalk is capable of explaining and defending her/his own point of view without your help.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/20/14 11:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So where do the "best win deserves #1" folks go now?
Texas at #1?

This is why judgement is required and you just can't jump people around wildly based on such a non-representative sample of games. The volitility that produces makes no sense.

Where do Stanford and UConn end up in next week's AP poll? Will or should both be behind Texas? Now that both have a loss, will Stanford still be ahead of UConn?


Shades



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PostPosted: 11/21/14 12:15 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ThIs is going to outrage Art, but I'll go
1. USC
2. UND
3. STAN
4. UCONN
5. DUKE
6. UT
7. TENN
8. MARY
9. KEN
10. TAMU



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/21/14 12:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
ThIs is going to outrage Art, but I'll go
1. USC
2. UND
3. STAN
4. UCONN
5. DUKE
6. UT
7. TENN
8. MARY
9. KEN
10. TAMU


Outrage? No. But if you're going to drop a Tenn team that has won all its games by wide margins three spots and put them behind two teams with losses, I'd certainly like to hear the rationale. I suspect Tenn fans will be outraged, and with some justification.

If there are no more losses by the top 10 and UConn is actually 4, there will be no explanation other than the "Geno Bonus" and I suspect Stanford is three only because you know they have to be higher than UConn - not because they actually belong there. They just lost at home to the #10 team. No possible way is #3 warranted. The problem is that the move by the coaches to jump them to 1 was ridiculous in the first place. They didn't belong any higher than 3 or 4 even before they lost.


GEF34



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PostPosted: 11/21/14 3:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
JMU plays Maryland on Black Friday. If they win, that should put them into the rankings. That would be nice, especially since I think they are underrated this year as usual. I'm hoping to *maybe* make it to the Pitt game this Sunday.


James Madison is currently 23 in the USA Today Coaches Poll.


beknighted



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PostPosted: 11/21/14 7:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
ThIs is going to outrage Art, but I'll go
1. USC
2. UND
3. STAN
4. UCONN
5. DUKE
6. UT
7. TENN
8. MARY
9. KEN
10. TAMU



I will be very surprised if Stanford ends up as high as 3 in the next round of polls. The Texas loss will be the thing most on the minds of the voters.


Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 11/21/14 8:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
ThIs is going to outrage Art, but I'll go
1. USC
2. UND
3. STAN
4. UCONN
5. DUKE
6. UT
7. TENN
8. MARY
9. KEN
10. TAMU


Honestly, I don't care much about the rankings at this point of the season, but why would you put South Carolina above Notre Dame? I agree that Notre Dame did not look that impressive against Michigan State, but they beat them by 8 points while the Gamecocks beat the Trojans by 9. Michigan State is top 20 and Southern Cal is unranked, and ND won in East Lansing while the Gamecocks won at home. Seems to me that ND has a good argument, unless you're just basing it on the previous poll (which had S. Carolina over Notre Dame).


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 11/21/14 9:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Assuming no more losses by these teams through Sunday, if I was an AP voter probably I think I would probably go with:

1. S. Carolina
2. Notre Dame
3. Tenn
4. Texas
5. UConn
6. Ky
7. Stanford
8. aTm
9. Duke
10. MD

On further reflection it strikes me that Stanford's OT loss at home to Texas is a worse loss than UConn's OT loss on the road to Stanford, so I'm not troubled by putting UConn above them despite the close head-to-head result.

The top is interesting and I jut left SC ahead of ND as they were in the previous AP poll. Which is better, looking impressive at home against a bad Clemson team, or winning ugly on the road against a top 15 MSU team that is supposed to challenge for the B10 title? I expect different voters take different views of that. S.Car. won pretty ugly against S. Cal, but I doubt many voters saw that game. Could go either way; I just left it in the order it was before.

Couldn't decide whether to put MD or UNC at 10, but MD was ahead of UNC in the last poll so I left them there.

I'm not a big Ky fan, but other than Texas over Stanford, their comeback win over Baylor is the most impressive win by a team without a loss and they deserve to make a big jump.


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