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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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 Posted: 11/10/14 1:40 pm ::: First Bracketology of the season is out |
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http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
Charlie Creme is learning. He has incorporated the new policy that teams seeded 1-4 from the same conference shall be placed in different regions. That should provide some interesting matchups. Now that the top 16 teams are hosting the first 2 rounds we won't have to put up with a higher seeded team being forced to play their second round game on the lower seed's home court.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 11/10/14 2:40 pm ::: |
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I'll be surprised if:
- The SEC gets 8 teams in
- Ky and MD are 2s
- Dayton is a 5
- USF gets in
- LSU is a 7
Can someone explain to me all the love that aTm and MD seem to be getting?
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/10/14 2:40 pm ::: |
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Happycappie25
Joined: 07 Feb 2006
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| Posted: 11/10/14 2:50 pm ::: |
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I agree, my only beefs are Picking martin to repeat the OVC...they lost a ton...id be careful. Nova...I do think 3 from the Beast will make it...but I think you could flip a coin between SHU and Creighton before going to Harry...I just don't get the high picking of Harry, the league has more talent for Harry to just win on his gimmick.
USF as a 10, the AAC is bad enough and USF has talent that basically they can and will run the AAC with one obvious exception...which RPI wise makes losing to UConn almost Springtime for Hitler for them. You go in with an ok Non Con, and 3 losses in the AAC being UConn...huskies, UConn...Huskies, Huskies...UConn (woof!) and all of the sudden you got an inflated RPI and a better seed...likely a 7 or even a 6...a 10 would mean a slipup...and well depending on when, that could put them out.
Stanford AND Cal in the all Important 4 hole: I think the Pac 12 is stacked enough with some good teams at the NIT level (the Washington schools come to mind) that 1 the Pac 12 champ whoever it is unless someone busts the bracket again, will be higher than a 4. And that there will be enough cannibalism for the runner up to be in the host seat at 4. I'd have champ 4 and runner up 5...and don't die of shock if one of them is NOT Cal or Stanford...this is wide open but a STRONG wide open. (Note: this doesn't mean that in a 4/5 toss up Stanford or Cal may get the 4 seed over a better school for attendance reasons, that does happen in this format but crème plays this straight so so shall I)
I do agree with: Oregon St as a 6...I think they take a small step back but still make it.
RU as a 7...I had them out, which is bold. But RU is shaky and a 7 seed shows that.
St. Johns as an 8...truth be told It's 4 teams for 2 spots with DePaul as the auto bid. STJ, SHU, Nova and Creighton. Pick 2, but STJ has pedigree so they get the preseason nod...but they've lost a TON, all they have is their backcourt...Thompson is a just above average power post and they have a ton of noobs for me to be comfy with them this year.
USC Out: Lest we forget they were a bracket buster and have some off court bubbling...i'd be leery of them until they prove it in the Non Con.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/10/14 3:04 pm ::: |
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| Happycappie25 wrote: |
I agree, my only beefs are Picking martin to repeat the OVC...they lost a ton...id be careful. Nova...I do think 3 from the Beast will make it...but I think you could flip a coin between SHU and Creighton before going to Harry...I just don't get the high picking of Harry, the league has more talent for Harry to just win on his gimmick.
USF as a 10, the AAC is bad enough and USF has talent that basically they can and will run the AAC with one obvious exception...which RPI wise makes losing to UConn almost Springtime for Hitler for them. You go in with an ok Non Con, and 3 losses in the AAC being UConn...huskies, UConn...Huskies, Huskies...UConn (woof!) and all of the sudden you got an inflated RPI and a better seed...likely a 7 or even a 6...a 10 would mean a slipup...and well depending on when, that could put them out.
Stanford AND Cal in the all Important 4 hole: I think the Pac 12 is stacked enough with some good teams at the NIT level (the Washington schools come to mind) that 1 the Pac 12 champ whoever it is unless someone busts the bracket again, will be higher than a 4. And that there will be enough cannibalism for the runner up to be in the host seat at 4. I'd have champ 4 and runner up 5...and don't die of shock if one of them is NOT Cal or Stanford...this is wide open but a STRONG wide open. (Note: this doesn't mean that in a 4/5 toss up Stanford or Cal may get the 4 seed over a better school for attendance reasons, that does happen in this format but crème plays this straight so so shall I)
I do agree with: Oregon St as a 6...I think they take a small step back but still make it.
RU as a 7...I had them out, which is bold. But RU is shaky and a 7 seed shows that.
St. Johns as an 8...truth be told It's 4 teams for 2 spots with DePaul as the auto bid. STJ, SHU, Nova and Creighton. Pick 2, but STJ has pedigree so they get the preseason nod...but they've lost a TON, all they have is their backcourt...Thompson is a just above average power post and they have a ton of noobs for me to be comfy with them this year.
USC Out: Lest we forget they were a bracket buster and have some off court bubbling...i'd be leery of them until they prove it in the Non Con. |
I expect USF will lose to MD, OU, KY, SJU, PSU, and probably Nova, plus UConn twice, will have no decent wins to balance those losses, and as a result of their conf will have an RPI essentially equivalent to an Atlantic Sun team even if they win every other conf game (which they probably won't), and they will not be in the tourney. Creme is just straining not to call the AAC a one-bid league.
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IM in OC
Joined: 25 Mar 2009
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| Posted: 11/10/14 3:18 pm ::: |
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| Creme has Oregon in from the Pac 12. He did this knowing Graves let go last years leading scorer, C. Rowe. Oregon played pretty well in the exhibition game and top center J. Alleyane's post game comments seem to stress her and the teams need to play defense.
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grrlagent
Joined: 20 Feb 2012
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Location: Non-Bubbaville, Louisiana
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| Posted: 11/10/14 3:27 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
I'll be surprised if:
- The SEC gets 8 teams in
- Ky and MD are 2s
- Dayton is a 5
- USF gets in
- LSU is a 7
Can someone explain to me all the love that aTm and MD seem to be getting? |
Agree about the SEC. LSU is definitely not a 7 after watching the exhibition games. I say they are around a 9-10 and that's if they can keep Ballard on the court playing her best.
Not sold with KY being a 2 either.
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FollowtheCardinalRule
Joined: 12 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 11/10/14 3:36 pm ::: |
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| I'm not sold with Baylor being a three. Davis is good, but Odyssey was a huge part in helping free Davis up.
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010
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| Posted: 11/10/14 4:52 pm ::: |
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| No Pac-12 team higher than a 4-seed? Hmm. I guess we'll see.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 11/10/14 5:19 pm ::: |
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Kentucky is an interesting case. As already pointed out, a 2 seed may be lofty, but let's accept that they make it as a 2, they would probably be the last 2.
They won't be thrilled if they end up in the Albany region, nothing against Albany, but it would mean facing UConn. While few teams would look forward to that match up, they were knocked out by UConn in 2013 as well as 2012. They probably think they deserve more than one year in a different bracket.
Technically, as a 2 they can play in a region with SC or TN at the top; the rule prevents teams in same conference unless they would meet in final (or there are more than 8 invitees), so they could be there, but I think the committee tries to avoid it. (They famously have done so before, but took a lot of heat.)
That leaves the OK city bracket, but hold on, TAMU is the 2. If TAMU is a 2 they are ahead of KY. TAMU shouldn't go to the regions with the SEC teams if possible, and was in UConn's regional last year, and shouldn't have to play in UConn regional unless they are 4th #2, which they aren't, and geographically, OK City is much better than Albany.
So if KY is a two, then they either get a shot at CT for the third time in four years, or have to play an SEC team in the final.
Are there other options? Even if you think KY is a three, that doesn't help much. They cannot go to OK City (if TAMU is there, the committee doesn't want them with SEC teams in Greensboro or Spokane, which puts them back against UConn, if they can win three games.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 11/10/14 5:25 pm ::: |
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So is basketball following the football model of ESPN becoming a 24/7 SEC infomercial?
The SECN creates a billion dollar conflict of interest for ESPN and a huge incentive to hype the SEC and drive traffic to the SECN. ESPN has been in love with the SEC in football for a while, but this year has been a full blown slobberfest, so much so that multiple ESPN talking heads have actually addresed publicly (and very defensively) the widespread criticism of the obvious bias.
Then in MBB, it's been all Kentucky all the time, including televising all of their summer boondoggle exhibition games in the Bahamas - a first for any team as far as I recall.
Now Smith predicts 3 SEC teams in the FF, and Creme has 8 in the tournament, several of which seem quite overseeded.
I assume that if ESPN declares them all contenders, then they hope more people will watch them on the SECN.
It seems to have gotten past the point of mere coincidence or "opinion."
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/10/14 5:30 pm ::: |
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| Phil wrote: |
Kentucky is an interesting case. As already pointed out, a 2 seed may be lofty, but let's accept that they make it as a 2, they would probably be the last 2.
They won't be thrilled if they end up in the Albany region, nothing against Albany, but it would mean facing UConn. While few teams would look forward to that match up, they were knocked out by UConn in 2013 as well as 2012. They probably think they deserve more than one year in a different bracket.
Technically, as a 2 they can play in a region with SC or TN at the top; the rule prevents teams in same conference unless they would meet in final (or there are more than 8 invitees), so they could be there, but I think the committee tries to avoid it. (They famously have done so before, but took a lot of heat.)
That leaves the OK city bracket, but hold on, TAMU is the 2. If TAMU is a 2 they are ahead of KY. TAMU shouldn't go to the regions with the SEC teams if possible, and was in UConn's regional last year, and shouldn't have to play in UConn regional unless they are 4th #2, which they aren't, and geographically, OK City is much better than Albany.
So if KY is a two, then they either get a shot at CT for the third time in four years, or have to play an SEC team in the final.
Are there other options? Even if you think KY is a three, that doesn't help much. They cannot go to OK City (if TAMU is there, the committee doesn't want them with SEC teams in Greensboro or Spokane, which puts them back against UConn, if they can win three games. |
Is "they got a tough draw last year" even a consideration? I've never seen it mentioned as such.
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RP
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
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| Posted: 11/10/14 6:54 pm ::: |
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The SEC had eight tournament teams in 2012, seven in 2013 and eight again in 2014. I think Creme has the right number, but the wrong eight.
Auburn and Florida seem far more likely to me than Vanderbilt and LSU, although it's tough to dismiss teams that are always there. (Vanderbilt last missed the tournament in 1999, and LSU has only missed one since 1998.)
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 11/10/14 7:51 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
Is "they got a tough draw last year" even a consideration? I've never seen it mentioned as such. |
Officially, this rule http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/images/2014/03/12/revised_principles_and_procedures-7-19-13.pdfexists:
If possible, rematches of previous years’ tournament
games should be avoided in the first- and second-
rounds.
Although that doesn't fit the CT/KY situation.
This is also relevant:
The committee shall attempt to avoid moving a team or a
conference out of its natural region or geographic area
an inordinate number of times and will examine the
previous three tournament brackets to determine the
number of times a team or conference has been assigned
out of its natural region.
Which might apply, but I really think it is an unofficial consideration.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 11/10/14 7:53 pm ::: |
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| Phil wrote: |
Technically, as a 2 they can play in a region with SC or TN at the top; the rule prevents teams in same conference unless they would meet in final (or there are more than 8 invitees), so they could be there, but I think the committee tries to avoid it. (They famously have done so before, but took a lot of heat.)
So if KY is a two, then they either get a shot at CT for the third time in four years, or have to play an SEC team in the final.
Are there other options? Even if you think KY is a three, that doesn't help much. They cannot go to OK City (if TAMU is there, the committee doesn't want them with SEC teams in Greensboro or Spokane, which puts them back against UConn, if they can win three games. |
Actually there is a new rule this year that says that teams from the same conference seeded 1-4 will be placed in different regions.
| Quote: |
The mock exercise also allowed for a full discussion of the current “Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket.” While the principles and procedures will continue to emphasize fairness, consistency and balance, attendees were notified of several tweaks for 2015 that included:
• Each of the first four teams from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.
• Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
• The committee will attempt to keep conference teams from meeting until the regional final round.
• If the committee is unable to balance the bracket after exhausting all possible options, it has the flexibility to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the first-round. |
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2014-09-11/womens-basketball-mock-exercise-spotlights-2015
Notice the use of "shall" in one rule as opposed to "will attempt in another.
With a likelihood that Tenn & SC are one seeds and Kentucky and TAMU are seeded as 4's or better, Kentucky and TAMU would find themselves in UConn's or Notre Dame's region.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 11/10/14 8:02 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| Phil wrote: |
Technically, as a 2 they can play in a region with SC or TN at the top; the rule prevents teams in same conference unless they would meet in final (or there are more than 8 invitees), so they could be there, but I think the committee tries to avoid it. (They famously have done so before, but took a lot of heat.)
So if KY is a two, then they either get a shot at CT for the third time in four years, or have to play an SEC team in the final.
Are there other options? Even if you think KY is a three, that doesn't help much. They cannot go to OK City (if TAMU is there, the committee doesn't want them with SEC teams in Greensboro or Spokane, which puts them back against UConn, if they can win three games. |
Actually there is a new rule this year that says that teams from the same conference seeded 1-4 will be placed in different regions.
| Quote: |
The mock exercise also allowed for a full discussion of the current “Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket.” While the principles and procedures will continue to emphasize fairness, consistency and balance, attendees were notified of several tweaks for 2015 that included:
• Each of the first four teams from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.
• Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
• The committee will attempt to keep conference teams from meeting until the regional final round.
• If the committee is unable to balance the bracket after exhausting all possible options, it has the flexibility to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the first-round. |
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2014-09-11/womens-basketball-mock-exercise-spotlights-2015
Notice the use of "shall" in one rule as opposed to "will attempt in another.
With a likelihood that Tenn & SC are one seeds and Kentucky and TAMU are seeded as 4's or better, Kentucky and TAMU would find themselves in UConn's or Notre Dame's region. |
Thanks. The odd thing is, I just read that article minutes ago, but that new rule didn't sink in.
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Howee
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FollowtheCardinalRule
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/10/14 10:50 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
Actually there is a new rule this year that says that teams from the same conference seeded 1-4 will be placed in different regions. |
Which essentially guarantees that two or three of them will be placed "out of its natural region or geographic area".
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larmarch5
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| Posted: 11/11/14 6:23 pm ::: |
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| Keep an eye on Cal and Texas.
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BallState1984
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| Posted: 11/12/14 8:59 am ::: |
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| Central Michigan's success depend on keeping Crystal Bradford out of jail.
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acsuc99
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| Posted: 11/14/14 5:37 am ::: |
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Hmmm I see Kentucky in UConn's bracket again as their 2.
This could be for 2 reasons.
A.) Selcomm back to their evil 90's plot of putting all the male coaches in the same region to knock each other off.
B.) Selcomm sees KY as overrated paper tiger and want to give UConn their usual easy path.
Fans may agree or disagree with A or B depending on their rooting interests.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 11/14/14 10:01 am ::: |
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| acsuc99 wrote: |
Hmmm I see Kentucky in UConn's bracket again as their 2.
This could be for 2 reasons.
A.) Selcomm back to their evil 90's plot of putting all the male coaches in the same region to knock each other off.
B.) Selcomm sees KY as overrated paper tiger and want to give UConn their usual easy path.
Fans may agree or disagree with A or B depending on their rooting interests. |
Or, reason 3, this is Charlie Creme's preason bracket, any similarity of which to the actual bracket next March is purely coincidental.
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Howee
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