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Oldfandepot2
Joined: 05 Jul 2013
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 Posted: 08/04/14 8:20 am ::: Recruits ranking sites |
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I was perusing various recruit ranking sites (Blue Star, Prospect Nation, Hoopgurlz, ASGR, etc) yesterday and these questions came to mind of which for the most the part I have no clue:
Which sites have the most credibility, which have the least. Why?
Who are all these people who rank all these athletes?
Any responses would be appreciated.
Thanks.
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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| Posted: 08/04/14 9:03 am ::: |
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Here's my take, oldfan.
Dan Olson runs Hoopgurlz now, as well his own site, Collegiate Girls Basketball Report. I find his ratings the least accurate personally, and they are ridiculously inflated. Last year he gave 5 stars to top 52 players in the class!
The other sites seem to be more collaborative efforts, or at least they attribute credit to various contributors. The guys who used to run Hoopgurlz now run Prospects Nation. BlueStar is also several people, and has a long history of ranking players. ASGR only occasionally makes their rankings public, but you can get peaks at current rankings through tweets by Bret McCormick. Full Court is also a collaborative effort. I trust them but they are usually last with their lists. Full Court supports their site through ads, whereas the others use subscriptions (most geared towards professionals, although Prospects Nation is intended for the enthusiast.)
There's not much money to be had in this business, so the evaluators are have small budgets and are few in number. They attend tournaments to get the most bang for their buck and share information with others at their site. Some also develop a rapport with some of the more highly regarded prospects so they can gain more access to information about their recruiting process.
There is a poster on the BY (vowelguy) that periodically calculates a composite ranking using all those rankings. It seems that's the best way to get an accurate guess of where players rank. As a bonus, he also ranks the recruiting classes using the composite rankings, but there is some disagreement about how to rank classes using player ratings (quantity vs. quality issues).
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/04/14 9:24 am ::: |
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| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
Here's my take, oldfan.
Dan Olson runs Hoopgurlz now, as well his own site, Collegiate Girls Basketball Report. I find his ratings the least accurate personally, and they are ridiculously inflated. Last year he gave 5 stars to top 52 players in the class!
The other sites seem to be more collaborative efforts, or at least they attribute credit to various contributors. The guys who used to run Hoopgurlz now run Prospects Nation. BlueStar is also several people, and has a long history of ranking players. ASGR only occasionally makes their rankings public, but you can get peaks at current rankings through tweets by Bret McCormick. Full Court is also a collaborative effort. I trust them but they are usually last with their lists. Full Court supports their site through ads, whereas the others use subscriptions (most geared towards professionals, although Prospects Nation is intended for the enthusiast.)
There's not much money to be had in this business, so the evaluators are have small budgets and are few in number. They attend tournaments to get the most bang for their buck and share information with others at their site. Some also develop a rapport with some of the more highly regarded prospects so they can gain more access to information about their recruiting process.
There is a poster on the BY (vowelguy) that periodically calculates a composite ranking using all those rankings. It seems that's the best way to get an accurate guess of where players rank. As a bonus, he also ranks the recruiting classes using the composite rankings, but there is some disagreement about how to rank classes using player ratings (quantity vs. quality issues). |
The Hoopgurlz thing also causes some confusion. Because of its affiliation with ESPN, there seems to be an assumption that Hoopgurlz today is the same as Hoopgurlz before. But for years, Chris Hansen was the main scout and writer for Hoopgurlz until the "old" Hoopgurlz people split from ESPN, and Hansen and some of the writers formed Prospects Nation, while Hoopgurlz is now an entirely different group with Dan Olsen.
Hoopgurlz still gets instant credibility because it's ESPN and because it's free and easy to access. Whether that credibility is deserved is a more dubious proposition.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 08/04/14 11:18 am ::: |
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Chris Hansen was just one of several writers for Hoopgurlz when it had a big budget (I was one for a while). Glenn Nelson founded it, and Mark Lewis and Lisa Bodine were key parts.
When Hoopgurlz could put four or five people on the road (thanks to ESPN support) who were not connected to AAU programs or selling their rankings to colleges, that was by far the most unbiased and best (in my opinion) ranking available.
Chris still does a good job, but without ESPN's support, one or two people just can't cover everything.
Mark is now with Blue Star, which is Mike Flynn's organization, but Flynn sells his rankings, and is also the founder of the Philadelphia Belles, which leads to the possibility of bias (if players don't play for his teams, or if they do). Blue Star does a good job, though, and Mike and Kevin Lynch are also very knowledgeable.
Dan Olson also does a good job, and though it's true he always tries to be positive, he sees a lot of players and has been doing this for a long time. Again, though, he's just one guy, and if you only see a player for a weekend, it's hard. He lives in Florida, so he's probably better for the Southeast than the Northeast.
Bob Corwin is the main guy for Full Court Press, and he's very good, but he lives in Georgia and also doesn't get to the West Coast that often. (I don't think FCP does rankings right now, but will do reports.)
In general, the most underanalyzed area is Southern California, though Harold Abend of Cal-Hi Sports does a good job on the entire state.
It's sort of like the line in the Daode Jing: Those who speak do not know; those who know do not speak.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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| Posted: 08/04/14 11:43 am ::: Nice to know Clay |
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| Right on Clay.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 08/04/14 12:42 pm ::: |
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Even if some evaluators have seen many players, no one has seen them all, much less many times. Therefore, any relative ranking is largely an exercise in semi-ignorant guessing, especially as one gets further away from the small handful of clear top talent.
Blue Star is the largest organization with perhaps 20 evaluators around the country, many of them former college coaches, and Mike Flynn has been ranking recruits since Chris Dailey was in high school (or so he says).
ASGR seems to be mainly Bret McCormick, who may be the single most traveled and informed evaluator in the country. I've liked ASGR since they ranked Bria Hartley #3 and Stefanie Dolson #12 in 2010, when other services were ranking them, especially Dolson, much lower.
The original HoopGurlz was just Glenn Nelson and Chris Hansen in the northwest, where they couldn't personally cover a lot. They got some more part time evaluators when initially funded by ESPN, including the two guys who had started Peach State (now Prospects Nation). Now, HG seems to be just Dan Olson, who has recently ranked as many as 50 players with an unilluminating five stars.
Chris Hansen is now with Prospects Nation. I don't know what Nelson is doing.
Blue Star, ASGR and Dan Olson all sell detailed scouting reports for a fee. Blue Star and ASGR also sponsor events and teams, which many people feel contributes to ranking bias.
I, too, am not sure that Full Court is currently ranking recruits. |
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Nixtreefan
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scfastpitch
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Oldfandepot2
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| Posted: 08/05/14 12:01 am ::: |
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| Thanks everyone, really appreciate all of you taking the time to post. Learned a lot.
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We must listen to each other no matter how much it hurts. Bishop Desmond Tutu.
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Rocky Top7
Joined: 26 Jul 2014
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| Posted: 08/05/14 5:28 pm ::: |
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| I too thank you for all the info
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ball4life
Joined: 26 Jun 2012
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| Posted: 08/08/14 8:07 pm ::: |
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| As far as accuracy all are opinions but I feel that regional rankings tend to be more trustworthy. Regional rankings target a certain region and see the kids that they rank multiple times over a course of years and the majority of players they have been following since the beginning of their careers. Careful of those that run an organization or team or those that train players they rank. Funny seeing a kid top 50 in a national ranking but not top five in their state or region.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 08/08/14 10:22 pm ::: |
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| ball4life wrote: |
| As far as accuracy all are opinions but I feel that regional rankings tend to be more trustworthy. Regional rankings target a certain region and see the kids that they rank multiple times over a course of years and the majority of players they have been following since the beginning of their careers. Careful of those that run an organization or team or those that train players they rank. Funny seeing a kid top 50 in a national ranking but not top five in their state or region. |
Very good points.
On the other hand, sometimes familiarity works against a player. When I was with Hoopgurlz, I saw Lindsey Moore (Nebraska, Lynx) a couple times and thought she was really good. The main guys were from Washington, which was where she was from, and they didn't like her -- I think because they'd seen so much of her they were really conscious of her flaws.
Overall, though, I do think regional rankings are better, but fans and parents love the national stuff.
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Oldfandepot2
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| Posted: 08/14/14 6:24 pm ::: |
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| Anyone ever hear of Swift as a ranking site? Never have myself, but then that doesn't mean much. Just heard of them today and in keeping this thread would be interested to know who they are and are they comparable to other ranking sites mentioned on this thread.
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Cave Canem!
We must listen to each other no matter how much it hurts. Bishop Desmond Tutu.
Last edited by Oldfandepot2 on 08/14/14 8:54 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 08/14/14 8:28 pm ::: |
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If you read the Swift site, it is the product of Damion McKinney, who was an assistant coach at Baylor from 2006-2013. Here is what McKinney says about himself:
"I personally have a unique gift in which I can recognize any talent whether its athletics or entertainment. I see talent in any sport, but my specialty is basketball. My technique is I can walk in a gym and sometimes spot a star in a matter of thirty seconds, while simultaneously evaluating and critiquing that particular player mentally and physically. The physical part is easy, but the mental is a gift. There have been moments when I see the mental by the way a person runs, how they look on the bench, or respond to a player or coach. There are other moments where I have evaluated their mental simply by the way they play the game defensively and offensively. My ability to discover new talent is another gift. My eyes see everything as a finished product."
With such preternatural gifts, McKinney's 2015 rankings must be THE TRUTH. |
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ClayK
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| Posted: 08/14/14 8:39 pm ::: |
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I remember Damion ... he told me about Alexis Jones when she was in eighth grade -- and he was right.
But Ogunbowale is from Wisconsin, not Washington, and I think he's wrong about Kalani Brown.
Then again, we're all wrong sometimes.
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Oldfandepot2
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| Posted: 08/14/14 9:04 pm ::: |
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| Thank you. It sounds like when he was at Baylor he never carried the water, he walked on it.
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Cave Canem!
We must listen to each other no matter how much it hurts. Bishop Desmond Tutu.
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ball4life
Joined: 26 Jun 2012
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| Posted: 08/14/14 9:37 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
I remember Damion ... he told me about Alexis Jones when she was in eighth grade -- and he was right.
But Ogunbowale is from Wisconsin, not Washington, and I think he's wrong about Kalani Brown.
Then again, we're all wrong sometimes. |
I haven't ever been wrong. I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken.
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ball4life
Joined: 26 Jun 2012
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| Posted: 08/14/14 9:38 pm ::: |
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| Oldfandepot2 wrote: |
| Thank you. It sounds like when he was at Baylor he never carried the water, he walked on it. |
Or turned it into wine.
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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| Posted: 08/14/14 10:10 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
I remember Damion ... he told me about Alexis Jones when she was in eighth grade -- and he was right.
But Ogunbowale is from Wisconsin, not Washington, and I think he's wrong about Kalani Brown.
Then again, we're all wrong sometimes. |
I think his placement of McCowan is even more egregious. She did NOT look impressive in the FIBA U18 tournament. And MeMe over Napheesa? unlikely.
Last edited by Fighting Artichoke on 08/15/14 6:29 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/14/14 10:33 pm ::: |
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| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
I remember Damion ... he told me about Alexis Jones when she was in eighth grade -- and he was right.
But Ogunbowale is from Wisconsin, not Washington, and I think he's wrong about Kalani Brown.
Then again, we're all wrong sometimes. |
I think his placement of McCowan is even more egregious. She NOT look impressive in the FIBA U18 tournament. And MeMe over Napheesa? unlikely. |
That's true about McCowan, but aren't these recruiting rankings supposed to be about potential at the next level rather than performance at the current level? She has another year to develop before college and you simply can't teach 6'7".
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Oldfandepot2
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