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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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 Posted: 07/29/14 1:47 pm ::: Top 25 |
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It's that time again ...
Any thoughts on the top 25?
As always, it's clear at the top, but muddies quickly.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 07/29/14 1:54 pm ::: |
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1 South Carolina
2 UConn
After that it's pot luck.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 07/29/14 3:21 pm ::: |
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Could only come up with 16 and a few of those are iffy.
1. UConn - best team and best coach
2. Notre Dame - lost 2 stars but still dominates ACC
3. South Carolina - still young but loaded
4. North Carolina - got lots of talent who are making the soph. jump
5. Tennessee - needs their senior pg to stay healthy
no rankings for the rest.
West Virginia
TAMU
Stanford
Louisville
Kentucky
Duke
UCLA
Texas
Rutgers
Maryland
Baylor
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LegoMyEggo
Joined: 02 Apr 2010
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| Posted: 07/29/14 3:21 pm ::: |
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| Texas should be up the food chain. I still think UNC will be quite good. Jewell Loyd should be able to carry Notre Dame a long way. Tennessee has to be considered a national contender (I know, I know, they have been the past few seasons) because their roster is once again loaded.
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Jlcarter
Joined: 03 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 07/29/14 5:52 pm ::: |
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1 UCONN
2 Notre Dame
3 Tennessee
4 South Carolina
5 Texas A&M
6 Texas
7 North Carolina
8 Duke
9 Baylor
10 Kentucky
That's my too ten. Others in the mix UCLA, Michigan St. Florida St. Stanford.
I think Vanderbilt should be better.
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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| Posted: 07/31/14 9:15 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
Could only come up with 16 and a few of those are iffy.
1. UConn - best team and best coach
2. Notre Dame - lost 2 stars but still dominates ACC
3. South Carolina - still young but loaded
4. North Carolina - got lots of talent who are making the soph. jump
5. Tennessee - needs their senior pg to stay healthy
no rankings for the rest.
West Virginia
TAMU
Stanford
Louisville
Kentucky
Duke
UCLA
Texas
Rutgers
Maryland
Baylor |
Tennessee has a backup PG who may be just as good as, if not better than, their senior PG. Not to mention a few waiting in the wings..
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NoDakSt
Joined: 26 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 07/31/14 9:55 pm ::: |
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| I'd throw Huskers in there. Replacing Hooper will be by committee but this team should have the depth to that.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/01/14 9:19 am ::: |
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Since this is a pre-season list, I am providing a ranking that I think is deserved at this time based on roster, losses, additions, etc. This is not intended to represent how I expect things to be at the end of the season. For example, I don't expect S.Car to be national champs, nor do I expect Tenn to beat or end up ahead of Notre Dame. But considering that they have zero losses from an excellent team and several terrific additions in their freshman class, I do agree with pilight that on paper S.Car deserves to be ranked #1 in November 2014. Everybody else has something to prove.
1 S. Carolina
2 - UConn
3 - Tenn
4 Notre Dame
5 North Carolina
6 Nebraska
7 Texas A&M
8 - Baylor
9 - Texas
10 - Michigan State
11 Duke
12 - Louisville
13 - Stanford
14 - Kentucky
15 Syracuse
16 Maryland
17 DePaul
18 UCLA
19 Rutgers
20 Dayton
21 Cal
22 - ???
23 - ???
24 - ???
25 - ???
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Happycappie25
Joined: 07 Feb 2006
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| Posted: 08/01/14 1:20 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
Since this is a pre-season list, I am providing a ranking that I think is deserved at this time based on roster, losses, additions, etc. This is not intended to represent how I expect things to be at the end of the season. For example, I don't expect S.Car to be national champs, nor do I expect Tenn to beat or end up ahead of Notre Dame. But considering that they have zero losses from an excellent team and several terrific additions in their freshman class, I do agree with pilight that on paper S.Car deserves to be ranked #1 in November 2014. Everybody else has something to prove.
1 S. Carolina
2 - UConn
3 - Tenn
4 Notre Dame
5 North Carolina
6 Nebraska
7 Texas A&M
8 - Baylor
9 - Texas
10 - Michigan State
11 Duke
12 - Louisville
13 - Stanford
14 - Kentucky
15 Syracuse
16 Maryland
17 DePaul
18 UCLA
19 Rutgers
20 Dayton
21 Cal
22 - ???
23 - ???
24 - ???
25 - ??? |
Some thoughts - Pretty Solid list...for 22-25 I'd put West Virginia, Oregon State, A second Mid Major and a Second team from the in-betweens AAC, Big East or A-10 SOS and RPI make it hard for me to pick which ones, but I think the mids are pretty hard charging and the in between conferences (A10 and BEast) also have some hard say. truth be told UConn may very well be a 1 bid, though their RPI may inflate an RPI of a runner up into the NCAAs
Too many question Marks to see a clear cut 2nd in the 3 in betweens but at least in the A-10 and Big East there are some clear contenders to fill the bottom of the rankings (St. John's, Fordham, GW and Creighton)
Ditto the Mids Where Middle (Now in CUSA), Gonzaga, UTC, BYU (Even with Hamson gone) all have a shot to take P 25.
As for the actual list
Only thing is Rutgers is so "ON PAPER" to me they should be sold by the ream...Yes they had a great run in the NIT beating Utep but also got taken to double OT (Scoreboard lied so hard in that game), trailed in the final possession and trailed most of the game to a triple digit RPI Seton Hall squad. Not to mention other various bad losses including the back breaker to a decent but clearly 2nd tier USF club.
Have they turned the corner with that run...maybe but Bowling Green was the toughest opponent of that lot...Seton Hall (A good and up and coming Seton Hall team but still) was the toughest game and could have easily lost.
Do they have the talent, No question
But your telling a team who ended up an also ran in the AAC when they were supposed to be a clear cut 3rd...let's go into a wide open Big 10 which is adding Maryland (who I think are a bit low but neither here nor there) to Purdue, Michigan State and PSU and with hard chargers Michigan, OSU and (before the sudden coaching shakeup) Indiana and a talent laden Minnesota
I'm not on this bandwagon...beating UTEP even in a sold out Gym is not being suddenly a top half of the Big 10 team. Throw in some tough OOC games...I say Buy NCAA tournament (but that's for most ALL NIT champs) but SELL the top 25....your asking for a lot out of a team that has done nothing but underachieve since 2008.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/01/14 1:32 pm ::: |
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You COULD fill in those last teams with mid-majors, but as always, there are legitimate questions whether those teams are better than majors like Iowa, FSU, OU, UGA, GaTech, PSU, Wash, WVU. So are St. Joes and St. Johns and Creighton and Gonzaga and BYU and GWU and Middle Tenn and Bowling Green and James Madison better than those teams or not?
I finally concluded that I had no way to select those last few spots among a mass of contenders.
On paper, considering the returning talent and the transfers and other addition, I think Rutgers is a pre-season top-25 teams. Might they underperform? Absolutely possible. But again, this is just my "on paper this is where I think they belong before anyone has played a game" list.
Last edited by ArtBest23 on 08/01/14 1:42 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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| Posted: 08/01/14 1:41 pm ::: |
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| I really think Iowa is going to be tough this year...they are pretty deep and talented. They will be at/near the top of the B1G with Maryland, Rutgers, Mich State & Nebraska.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/01/14 1:46 pm ::: |
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| purduefanatic wrote: |
| I really think Iowa is going to be tough this year...they are pretty deep and talented. They will be at/near the top of the B1G with Maryland, Rutgers, Mich State & Nebraska. |
I think this is the strongest and deepest the Big 10 has been in quite a while even without considering Maryland and Rutgers, but personally I see Iowa in a large block that includes Mich, PSU, Rutgers, Minn, maybe Ohio St (especially after the holidays when the two transfers become eligible) maybe Purdue, maybe Northwestern, all of whom I see as a step behind Nebraska, MSU and Maryland. I would be shocked if Iowa won the Big 10.
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purduefanatic
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| Posted: 08/01/14 2:00 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| I think this is the strongest and deepest the Big 10 has been in quite a while even without considering Maryland and Rutgers, but personally I see Iowa in a large block that includes Mich, PSU, Rutgers, Minn, maybe Ohio St (especially after the holidays when the two transfers become eligible) maybe Purdue, maybe Northwestern, all of whom I see as a step behind Nebraska, MSU and Maryland. I would be shocked if Iowa won the Big 10. |
I agree about the league...it really is pretty deep this year. I am inclined to include Iowa in that upper echelon with Nebraska, MSU and Maryland. That middle section is WIDE OPEN with all those teams you listed battling it out. Minny will be interesting to see as they return some very good talent but have a new (and relatively unproven) coach on the sidelines. I can't figure N'western out to save my life as Joe has tons of talent on that roster and wins some great games but then they lose some they just shouldn't.
The league has usually been pretty competitive from top to bottom but this year could be the best it has been in a long time.
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colt13
Joined: 25 Sep 2009
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| Posted: 08/01/14 2:04 pm ::: Re: Top 25 |
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| ClayK wrote: |
It's that time again ...
Any thoughts on the top 25?
As always, it's clear at the top, but muddies quickly. |
1.UCONN
2.Notre Dame
3.South Carolina
4.North Carolina
5.Stanford
6.Tennessee
7.Iowa
8.Kentucky
9.Minnesota
10.Texas
11.Oregon State
12.West Virginia
13.TCU
14.Iowa State
15.North Carolina State
16.Louisville
17.UCLA
18.Florida State
19.Creighton
20.Michigan State
21.Ohio State
22.Arizona State
23.Washington State
24.Harvard
25.Baylor
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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Location: Indiana
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| Posted: 08/01/14 2:08 pm ::: Re: Top 25 |
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| colt13 wrote: |
1.UCONN
2.Notre Dame
3.South Carolina
4.North Carolina
5.Stanford
6.Tennessee
7.Iowa
8.Kentucky
9.Minnesota
10.Texas
11.Oregon State
12.West Virginia
13.TCU
14.Iowa State
15.North Carolina State
16.Louisville
17.UCLA
18.Florida State
19.Creighton
20.Michigan State
21.Ohio State
22.Arizona State
23.Washington State
24.Harvard
25.Baylor |
Iowa & Minnesota in the top 10? No Nebraska or Maryland, 2 teams that could easily win the Big Ten? Baylor at #25? TCU at #13?
I have to say, this is definitely the most interesting top 25 posted thus far.
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loneycafe
Joined: 17 Oct 2009
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| Posted: 08/01/14 3:00 pm ::: Re: Top 25 |
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| purduefanatic wrote: |
| colt13 wrote: |
1.UCONN
2.Notre Dame
3.South Carolina
4.North Carolina
5.Stanford
6.Tennessee
7.Iowa
8.Kentucky
9.Minnesota
10.Texas
11.Oregon State
12.West Virginia
13.TCU
14.Iowa State
15.North Carolina State
16.Louisville
17.UCLA
18.Florida State
19.Creighton
20.Michigan State
21.Ohio State
22.Arizona State
23.Washington State
24.Harvard
25.Baylor |
Iowa & Minnesota in the top 10? No Nebraska or Maryland, 2 teams that could easily win the Big Ten? Baylor at #25? TCU at #13?
I have to say, this is definitely the most interesting top 25 posted thus far. |
I was wondering if this was some kind of in-my-dreams Top 25. NC State is my team, but no way are they 15, or even top 25. And despite Duke's ongoing issues, they're still in the top 15, maybe even 10.
ETA: State lost a lot of players who played tons of minutes to graduation. We're bringing in what has turned out to be a nice class, but it's going to take some time for it all to come together.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/01/14 3:05 pm ::: Re: Top 25 |
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| loneycafe wrote: |
I was wondering if this was some kind of in-my-dreams Top 25. NC State is my team, but no way are they 15, or even top 25. And despite Duke's ongoing issues, they're still in the top 15, maybe even 10. |
NCSt jumped out at me too. I really like what Wes Moore is doing there, but you folks were decimated by graduation.
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 08/01/14 3:28 pm ::: |
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| Happycappie25 wrote: |
Only thing is Rutgers is so "ON PAPER" to me they should be sold by the ream...Yes they had a great run in the NIT beating Utep but also got taken to double OT (Scoreboard lied so hard in that game), trailed in the final possession and trailed most of the game to a triple digit RPI Seton Hall squad. Not to mention other various bad losses including the back breaker to a decent but clearly 2nd tier USF club.
Have they turned the corner with that run...maybe but Bowling Green was the toughest opponent of that lot...Seton Hall (A good and up and coming Seton Hall team but still) was the toughest game and could have easily lost.
Do they have the talent, No question
But your telling a team who ended up an also ran in the AAC when they were supposed to be a clear cut 3rd...let's go into a wide open Big 10 which is adding Maryland (who I think are a bit low but neither here nor there) to Purdue, Michigan State and PSU and with hard chargers Michigan, OSU and (before the sudden coaching shakeup) Indiana and a talent laden Minnesota
I'm not on this bandwagon...beating UTEP even in a sold out Gym is not being suddenly a top half of the Big 10 team. Throw in some tough OOC games...I say Buy NCAA tournament (but that's for most ALL NIT champs) but SELL the top 25....your asking for a lot out of a team that has done nothing but underachieve since 2008. |
As a Rutgers fan, I have to say I often go into the season with a lot of trepidation, and that's certainly true this year. I expect them to be better because nobody graduation and the only loss was someone who didn't play much; because CVS worked actively to deal with the 3-point shooting (which I don't see as quite as big an issue as others do because of the excellent mid-range game the team showed, but it's still nice to have a couple of bombers, and maybe they'll rub off on Scaife et al.); and because Scaife looks to me like one of those players who's going to end up dominating games.
If they still were in the AAC or the old Big East, I'd have a much easier time figuring out what they would do, but with the jump to the B1G, I'm not really convinced I know how they'll be.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 08/01/14 3:36 pm ::: |
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| I'm amazed that people think losing Hartley and Dolson won't affect UConn at all
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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| Posted: 08/01/14 3:49 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| I'm amazed that people think losing Hartley and Dolson won't affect UConn at all |
I think you're looking at this the wrong way. While it's true that the graduation of Dolson and Hartley will sting, UConn is loaded even after considering that loss (Stewart, KML, Jefferson) without having any glaring weaknesses. Additionally, perhaps their biggest competition (ND) lost more than they did (McBride and Achonwa), at least compared to what remains on their respective teams.
The teams that didn't lose as much seem pretty far behind, at least if last year is any indication of their readiness to compete. South Carolina lost no one, but they were far behind UConn last season, and I doubt that Staley can make up that kind of ground on Geno. Tennessee lost their best scorer, and until the team figures out who takes that shot when games are on the line, there will be a question mark for me. In addition, they have gone 6 years with no FF appearances (despite a plethora of talent), so they are a question mark. Duke lost 4 starters. UNC lost DeShields. Stanford lost Chiney and Ruef. Maryland lost Thomas. So who do you think should be above UConn?
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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| Posted: 08/01/14 6:32 pm ::: Re: Top 25 |
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| ClayK wrote: |
It's that time again ...
Any thoughts on the top 25?
As always, it's clear at the top, but muddies quickly. |
One of the posters here on RebKell, Phil, used a fairly simple statistical model to predict the top 15 or so teams.
http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=80926
His model was interesting. It would be fun to see how well the model works looking at data from the past 10 years or so, but that would be a pain in the butt. The most interesting aspect of analyzing several years of data is not seeing how well the model fits, but rather seeing which coaches/programs do not fit the model. Do some develop talent faster/better than others? How effective are coaching changes?
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Shades
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ClayK
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Shades
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