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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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Location: Indiana
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 Posted: 10/01/14 12:05 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
The data for the decline in interest in basketball can be found on the National Federation of High Schools web site under "participation."
It's very real, and very clear.
Still, there are two advantages for basketball:
1) It's much better for TV, as soccer isn't as interesting to most viewers, and volleyball matches vary too widely in time to work for programmers. This is the biggest, and a huge, advantage.
2) Women's basketball has 15 full scholarships available at each D-1 school; volleyball has 12, but my sense is that schools tend to use more of their basketball allocation than volleyball, though I certainly could be wrong. Many basketball programs don't use all 15, and I would guess the same would be true of volleyball's 12. But maybe not, and if most schools use a higher percentage of their available volleyball scholarships than basketball, then that would be further evidence of the relative importance of the two sports. |
There is SO MUCH more to these statistics than the simple raw numbers suggest. No idea if this happens in your school Clay, but I know for a fact in a few high schools that I have direct knowledge of (personally know the AD's) that there are cases where kids are cut from basketball teams. In addition, there are kids that "play" another sport (like soccer or volleyball) just to be involved in something and where many times players aren't cut. It's not that these kids love a certain sport but play just to be part of the team/group.
I also think that as schools are trying to increase participation, they are quick to count as many kids as possible to try and have sheer numbers.
I guess I'm not as quick to draw all sorts of conclusions like that based solely on these kinds of numbers. I mean, I can tell you that the counter numbers that member institutions give to the NCAA are "doctored" a little as well...for instance, counting a kid in multiple sports so as to appease the Title IX requirements.
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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Location: Shenandoah Valley
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| Posted: 10/01/14 12:50 pm ::: |
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| beknighted wrote: |
I can't say I'm that surprised by either the notion that basketball has a lot of lesbians or that there could be recruiting. Basketball is the only women's team sport with a prominent pro league, and so the lesbians in the WNBA get more publicity than the ones in, say, volleyball. And, of course, the "recruiting" canard may never go away. It's a real pity, though. Maybe if our society keeps becoming more open about these things (I refuse to say "tolerant" - it feels like a tacit admission that disapproval is okay), this won't be an issue, but it certainly will take a while to happen.
(As an aside, though, there are a lot of out lesbians in tennis, so it's funny that parents who are worried about these things would stell their children that direction.) |
Heck, if you want to talk about lesbians, let's talk about the LPGA! I know a woman (who happens to be straight) who's been a golfer all her life, is now in the LPGA, and she has told me lesbians in WBB are NOTHING compared to those in the competitive golf world.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 10/01/14 2:42 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| beknighted wrote: |
I can't say I'm that surprised by either the notion that basketball has a lot of lesbians or that there could be recruiting. Basketball is the only women's team sport with a prominent pro league, and so the lesbians in the WNBA get more publicity than the ones in, say, volleyball. And, of course, the "recruiting" canard may never go away. It's a real pity, though. Maybe if our society keeps becoming more open about these things (I refuse to say "tolerant" - it feels like a tacit admission that disapproval is okay), this won't be an issue, but it certainly will take a while to happen.
(As an aside, though, there are a lot of out lesbians in tennis, so it's funny that parents who are worried about these things would stell their children that direction.) |
Heck, if you want to talk about lesbians, let's talk about the LPGA! I know a woman (who happens to be straight) who's been a golfer all her life, is now in the LPGA, and she has told me lesbians in WBB are NOTHING compared to those in the competitive golf world. |
Don't know about the players, but that has historically been true about the followers. The Dinah Shore aka Kraft Nabisco Championship at Mission Hills in Palm Springs every year was for many years the centerpiece of essentially an impromptu lesbian festival.
I don't follow the LPGA enough these days to know whether its attitude has changed, but it used to be a very uneasy relationship with the tour not exactly welcoming the reputation surrounding the tour as a whole or one of its showpiece events.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 10/01/14 3:53 pm ::: |
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| purduefanatic wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
The data for the decline in interest in basketball can be found on the National Federation of High Schools web site under "participation."
It's very real, and very clear.
Still, there are two advantages for basketball:
1) It's much better for TV, as soccer isn't as interesting to most viewers, and volleyball matches vary too widely in time to work for programmers. This is the biggest, and a huge, advantage.
2) Women's basketball has 15 full scholarships available at each D-1 school; volleyball has 12, but my sense is that schools tend to use more of their basketball allocation than volleyball, though I certainly could be wrong. Many basketball programs don't use all 15, and I would guess the same would be true of volleyball's 12. But maybe not, and if most schools use a higher percentage of their available volleyball scholarships than basketball, then that would be further evidence of the relative importance of the two sports. |
There is SO MUCH more to these statistics than the simple raw numbers suggest. No idea if this happens in your school Clay, but I know for a fact in a few high schools that I have direct knowledge of (personally know the AD's) that there are cases where kids are cut from basketball teams. In addition, there are kids that "play" another sport (like soccer or volleyball) just to be involved in something and where many times players aren't cut. It's not that these kids love a certain sport but play just to be part of the team/group.
I also think that as schools are trying to increase participation, they are quick to count as many kids as possible to try and have sheer numbers.
I guess I'm not as quick to draw all sorts of conclusions like that based solely on these kinds of numbers. I mean, I can tell you that the counter numbers that member institutions give to the NCAA are "doctored" a little as well...for instance, counting a kid in multiple sports so as to appease the Title IX requirements. |
In the Bay Area, one of the strongest girls' basketball leagues -- which produced four state titles from midsize public schools -- used to have varsity, JV and frosh at each school. Now, there are no frosh teams, and not every program has a JV.
Volleyball, on the other hand, has expanded to have three teams.
At the school where I now coach, which has 300 students, when I started coaching basketball again, the head of school came to me before the season and said "Will we have enough for a team?" We finally got nine.
The volleyball program had 30 girls sign up.
I don't think these numbers are a mirage at all. The interest in volleyball in Northern California has skyrocketed in recent years. There are clubs everywhere, and much more expensive than basketball, and coaches work those girls to play year-round and not play other sports. A girl who plays volleyball seriously has been brainwashed that she has to play year-round and can't play basketball because of the constant tournaments. (The fact that the volleyball club coaches make a living off that year-round participation has yet to be really noticed.)
It certainly could be different in Indiana, which is the heartland of basketball, but in California, soccer is also bleeding players away, especially now that the high school federation is going to move as many soccer programs as possible to the winter so they can have a true state championship. Right now, soccer is played in all three seasons of sport, but there's a big push to have them all play in the winter (which with the drought makes even more sense).
I think that pretending these numbers aren't real could be a very serious mistake for those who run the sport, as the trend has been clear for the past decade, really.
For me, anecdotally and statistically, the decline in interest in girls' basketball is very, very real.
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Oldfandepot2
Joined: 05 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 10/01/14 4:36 pm ::: |
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| I don't know if this holds true with boys/girls sports in general there was a trend when my son, who' is now a Division I athlete, that at a younger age the students both male and female moved away from the more traditional sports like basketball and baseball to sports like soccer and volleyball particularly at the middle school level as all were pretty much guranteed to play more minutes should they had participated in basketball or baseball. However as they went on to high school, many gradually moved away from soccer and volleyball and back to the more traditional sports like softball, baseball, basketball and also field hockey became prevalent as did hockey.
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IM in OC
Joined: 25 Mar 2009
Posts: 999
Location: Orange County, CA
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| Posted: 10/01/14 5:39 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
In the Bay Area, one of the strongest girls' basketball leagues -- which produced four state titles from midsize public schools -- used to have varsity, JV and frosh at each school. Now, there are no frosh teams, and not every program has a JV.
Volleyball, on the other hand, has expanded to have three teams.
At the school where I now coach, which has 300 students, when I started coaching basketball again, the head of school came to me before the season and said "Will we have enough for a team?" We finally got nine.
The volleyball program had 30 girls sign up.
I don't think these numbers are a mirage at all. The interest in volleyball in Northern California has skyrocketed in recent years. There are clubs everywhere, and much more expensive than basketball, and coaches work those girls to play year-round and not play other sports. A girl who plays volleyball seriously has been brainwashed that she has to play year-round and can't play basketball because of the constant tournaments. (The fact that the volleyball club coaches make a living off that year-round participation has yet to be really noticed.)
It certainly could be different in Indiana, which is the heartland of basketball, but in California, soccer is also bleeding players away, especially now that the high school federation is going to move as many soccer programs as possible to the winter so they can have a true state championship. Right now, soccer is played in all three seasons of sport, but there's a big push to have them all play in the winter (which with the drought makes even more sense).
I think that pretending these numbers aren't real could be a very serious mistake for those who run the sport, as the trend has been clear for the past decade, really.
For me, anecdotally and statistically, the decline in interest in girls' basketball is very, very real. |
What Clay says is true and it is the same in Orange County, CA. where I live. From around the early 2000's to about 2010 or 11 nearly every night of the week I could find a competitive HS game to go to in OC. Most of the games always had at least one or two solid D1 players. Not anymore. If I am not going to watch Katie Lou Samuelson at Mater Dei, I dont think I will find a game with a solid D1 player. Some girls will make D1 mid majors, but they are few and far between. Also, most, teams in OC have eliminated the Frosh Soph teams. Interest has fallen off the cliff. However, I have friends who have kids that play both VBall and Soccer and their HS teams are overflowing at all levels.
Hope its one of those cycle things, and WBB makes a rebound.
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PRballer
Joined: 18 Apr 2007
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| Posted: 10/02/14 1:57 am ::: |
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| Clay, sounds like this notion/observation about declining participation in girl's basketball is very real in the Bay Area, and I'm not arguing that - just not sure it's true all across the country.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 10/02/14 9:45 am ::: |
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| PRballer wrote: |
| Clay, sounds like this notion/observation about declining participation in girl's basketball is very real in the Bay Area, and I'm not arguing that - just not sure it's true all across the country. |
My evidence for the country as a whole are the NFHS figures, which measure participation for the entire country.
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 10/02/14 10:03 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
| PRballer wrote: |
| Clay, sounds like this notion/observation about declining participation in girl's basketball is very real in the Bay Area, and I'm not arguing that - just not sure it's true all across the country. |
My evidence for the country as a whole are the NFHS figures, which measure participation for the entire country. |
Is it possible that California is skewing both the numbers (because of its size) and your perspective?
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013
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Location: Shenandoah Valley
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| Posted: 10/02/14 10:54 am ::: |
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| It could also be a case of there just being a greater variety of sports for girls to play. There used to be basketball and track, with some schools having volleyball and softball, and in the northeast and mid-Atlantic, field hockey. Now there's soccer, lacrosse, cross country, and who knows what else.
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It takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program.--Conventional Wisdom
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 10/02/14 11:28 am ::: |
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| Queenie wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
| PRballer wrote: |
| Clay, sounds like this notion/observation about declining participation in girl's basketball is very real in the Bay Area, and I'm not arguing that - just not sure it's true all across the country. |
My evidence for the country as a whole are the NFHS figures, which measure participation for the entire country. |
Is it possible that California is skewing both the numbers (because of its size) and your perspective? |
It's very possible ... but then again, what's happening in NYC? That used to be a hotbed for girls' basketball individual and team talent, but in the last few years, there's been a huge decline. I don't think I even had a New York team in the MaxPreps top 25 last year ...
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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| Posted: 10/02/14 7:59 pm ::: |
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New verbals for Austin Peay, Campbell, Central Michigan, Hampton, High Point, Illinois State, Kent State, Loyola Maryland, Marquette, Marshall, Massachusetts, Navy, North Carolina, Oakland, Ole Miss, Pepperdine, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Rutgers, Saint Louis, Stanford, Temple, UC Santa Barbara, and Weber State.
Since we are on the topic of states and talent here are the top 5 states with D1 commitments so far from my count. In football its always Texas, California and Florida producing the talent but in girls basketball it is different. Texas is #1 with 39 verbals, then there is a four way tie between Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia and California with 34 known verbals. Right outside the top 5 is Illinois with 30.
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gopher5
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hyperetic
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 10/03/14 12:36 pm ::: |
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| @ClayK I am curious as to what, if anything, that you are inferring from what you've posted about what you've theorized and qualified as the decline in female youth basketball? What are the implications in your posts? |
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 10/04/14 9:33 am ::: |
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| hyperetic wrote: |
| @ClayK I am curious as to what, if anything, that you are inferring from what you've posted about what you've theorized and qualified as the decline in female youth basketball? What are the implications in your posts? |
An interesting question ...
First, I wasn't really trying to infer anything, but rather inform. I think it's important for those who care about the game to know what's happening. We often assume that things don't change, and they are what they were -- and that doesn't seem to be the case with girls and the sports they choose.
But your question did trigger something: What does this decline mean? Rather than go into "why," look at "what" ...
If the trend continues, and I see no reason to think it won't, I would guess that we'll see more tall, elite athletes choose volleyball. That will dilute the quality of women's basketball at all levels, as elite athletes are what drive any sport.
The club and high school scene would see the least impact, as high school basketball isn't going away any time soon. College basketball as a business probably won't be affected because basketball is a good TV game, and the scholarships won't go away. I don't think attendance will go up with fewer elite athletes, as athleticism is part of the appeal of watching any sport, but it shouldn't necessarily go down either, as basketball is a fun game to watch.
The WNBA, though, might be most affected in the long run, as we all note that drafts seldom go more than two or three deep in terms of difference-making players, and if fewer elite athletes are coming up through the ranks, there will be fewer top-shelf players to draft.
Since ESPN and other media are star-driven (regardless of sport), fewer stars could lead to less interest in televising/promoting the sport, though again, basketball's TV-friendly format and familiarity with fans is always going to be a plus.
Finally, I think it's important that everyone involved in women's basketball understand that there is a fundamental issue, if not a fundamental problem, going on. It is not good when other sports are attracting more athletes, just as it's not good in business when another company is attracting more customers. I don't know if anything can, or even should, be done, but without awareness of what's going on, there's no chance that any change for the better will take place.
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shadowboxer
Joined: 18 Jul 2008
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| Posted: 10/04/14 10:44 am ::: |
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Wonder how the demographics of a large % of the population moving towards the southwest, as well as the changing face of our "blended" majority, their values, mores, and economics, etc...may be impacting this decrease in playing basketball phenomena?
Just the movement of people into generally warmer climates(for now) is having an effect, I'm certain. Does your study attempt to tease out some of those variables, Clay?
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ClayK
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| Posted: 10/05/14 10:40 am ::: |
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Actually, it was an NFHS study, and it was very raw -- just national participation in various sports.
But you bring up an interesting point: African-Americans have traditionally been the subculture most strongly interested in basketball, and as a percentage of the population, I'm pretty sure that group is declining in numbers. At the same time, Hispanic and Latino numbers are rising, and again, not to generalize, but that group has not been as basketball-oriented, especially on the women's side.
And geographically, the population shift to where the weather is better might lead to more outside activities, such as soccer and beach volleyball. But the volleyball that's attracting female athletes is the indoor variety, so I don't know.
Obviously, it's a complex phenomenon, but it's not one that should just be ignored.
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hyperetic
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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Location: Fayetteville
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| Posted: 10/05/14 11:37 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
Actually, it was an NFHS study, and it was very raw -- just national participation in various sports.
But you bring up an interesting point: African-Americans have traditionally been the subculture most strongly interested in basketball, and as a percentage of the population, I'm pretty sure that group is declining in numbers. At the same time, Hispanic and Latino numbers are rising, and again, not to generalize, but that group has not been as basketball-oriented, especially on the women's side.
And geographically, the population shift to where the weather is better might lead to more outside activities, such as soccer and beach volleyball. But the volleyball that's attracting female athletes is the indoor variety, so I don't know.
Obviously, it's a complex phenomenon, but it's not one that should just be ignored. |
What does the study say about Marshallese because we have a large population in our area & basketball has become big with them. |
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LegoMyEggo
Joined: 02 Apr 2010
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| Posted: 10/05/14 1:34 pm ::: |
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Interesting points, Clay, which I think lend themselves to the period we've been in now where there aren't enough truly elite players to supply more teams. As a result, we get a very small group dominating the rest.
| ClayK wrote: |
| hyperetic wrote: |
| @ClayK I am curious as to what, if anything, that you are inferring from what you've posted about what you've theorized and qualified as the decline in female youth basketball? What are the implications in your posts? |
An interesting question ...
First, I wasn't really trying to infer anything, but rather inform. I think it's important for those who care about the game to know what's happening. We often assume that things don't change, and they are what they were -- and that doesn't seem to be the case with girls and the sports they choose.
But your question did trigger something: What does this decline mean? Rather than go into "why," look at "what" ...
If the trend continues, and I see no reason to think it won't, I would guess that we'll see more tall, elite athletes choose volleyball. That will dilute the quality of women's basketball at all levels, as elite athletes are what drive any sport.
The club and high school scene would see the least impact, as high school basketball isn't going away any time soon. College basketball as a business probably won't be affected because basketball is a good TV game, and the scholarships won't go away. I don't think attendance will go up with fewer elite athletes, as athleticism is part of the appeal of watching any sport, but it shouldn't necessarily go down either, as basketball is a fun game to watch.
The WNBA, though, might be most affected in the long run, as we all note that drafts seldom go more than two or three deep in terms of difference-making players, and if fewer elite athletes are coming up through the ranks, there will be fewer top-shelf players to draft.
Since ESPN and other media are star-driven (regardless of sport), fewer stars could lead to less interest in televising/promoting the sport, though again, basketball's TV-friendly format and familiarity with fans is always going to be a plus.
Finally, I think it's important that everyone involved in women's basketball understand that there is a fundamental issue, if not a fundamental problem, going on. It is not good when other sports are attracting more athletes, just as it's not good in business when another company is attracting more customers. I don't know if anything can, or even should, be done, but without awareness of what's going on, there's no chance that any change for the better will take place. |
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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| Posted: 10/05/14 2:31 pm ::: |
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| New verbals for Bradley, Illinois, Iowa, Lamar, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Rider, San Francisco, Southeast Louisiana, Southern Illinois, and St. Francis (NY).
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 10/05/14 7:26 pm ::: |
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| hyperetic wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
Actually, it was an NFHS study, and it was very raw -- just national participation in various sports.
But you bring up an interesting point: African-Americans have traditionally been the subculture most strongly interested in basketball, and as a percentage of the population, I'm pretty sure that group is declining in numbers. At the same time, Hispanic and Latino numbers are rising, and again, not to generalize, but that group has not been as basketball-oriented, especially on the women's side.
And geographically, the population shift to where the weather is better might lead to more outside activities, such as soccer and beach volleyball. But the volleyball that's attracting female athletes is the indoor variety, so I don't know.
Obviously, it's a complex phenomenon, but it's not one that should just be ignored. |
What does the study say about Marshallese because we have a large population in our area & basketball has become big with them. |
The Pacific Island population here in the Bay Area has adopted basketball as well ... but it's a very small slice of the population.
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myrtle
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| Posted: 10/06/14 3:23 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
If the trend continues, and I see no reason to think it won't, I would guess that we'll see more tall, elite athletes choose volleyball. That will dilute the quality of women's basketball at all levels, as elite athletes are what drive any sport.
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Perhaps it depends on if the overall participation increases? With more girls participating in sports overall, then even if the percentage of them in bball goes down, there should still be some elite athletes coming through. I know that overall participation has increased hugely over time, (when I was in school, it was still considered a bit strange to be involved in sports) but don't know if it is a continuing trend or if it has 'topped' out. I know that all the little girls in my extended family are very much interested - and basketball here in Oregon is still high on the list.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 10/06/14 4:26 pm ::: |
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| It looks like Stanford's day of big posts is over. Kinda bleak in the immediate future.
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LegoMyEggo
Joined: 02 Apr 2010
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| Posted: 10/06/14 8:18 pm ::: |
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The PAC seems like it will be more up for grabs. Stanford isn't killing it in recruiting as far as I know. Not sure who their next franchise player will be?
Cal seems to recruit well. UCLA, USC and now Washington seem to be as well. Guessing Graves will manage to attract some players too.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 10/07/14 9:38 am ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
If the trend continues, and I see no reason to think it won't, I would guess that we'll see more tall, elite athletes choose volleyball. That will dilute the quality of women's basketball at all levels, as elite athletes are what drive any sport.
|
Perhaps it depends on if the overall participation increases? With more girls participating in sports overall, then even if the percentage of them in bball goes down, there should still be some elite athletes coming through. I know that overall participation has increased hugely over time, (when I was in school, it was still considered a bit strange to be involved in sports) but don't know if it is a continuing trend or if it has 'topped' out. I know that all the little girls in my extended family are very much interested - and basketball here in Oregon is still high on the list. |
Oregon is definitely a basketball state; so is Indiana. Oklahoma, I'm pretty sure, is a softball state.
There are mini-athletic cultures throughout the country that favor certain sports (it's a big country), but the overall raw numbers, not the percentage, are down for girls' basketball on the national scene.
I wouldn't expect Oregon and Indiana to drop off much, and probably the DMV, but in most of the country, volleyball and soccer are rising and basketball is dropping.
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