RebKell's Junkie Boards

[fancy_daniel]

Okay, against my better judgment, I'm going to help out with the prediction contest and be the caretaker for now. If anyone can tell me how many games are played in the regular season now, I would be very grateful

Now, on to the show.

It’s time once again for the prediction contest.

The basic idea is to predict how your team (or any team you want) will do this year. This post is the instructions; the next post is a FAQ.

Two year's ago, the top 5 was (we do not have results for last year):

1t. Erasai1980 (Stanford) 8.1
Howee (Stanford) 8.1
3. FollowtheCardinalRule (Stanford) 6.9
4. bballfan32 (Arkansas) 6.5
5. RP (North Carolina) 6.3

The entire standings from that contest can be found here:

The rules:

Predict your team’s record in the regular season. You can make up to six (yes, six) predictions:

Worst possible overall record
Most likely overall record
Best possible overall record

Worst possible conference record
Most likely conference record
Best possible conference record

The regular season does not include the conference tournament, so your prediction should be based on only the games currently on the schedule (except for teams in the preseason WNIT, as described below).

For tiebreaking purposes, also predict any or all of the following:

How far your team will get in the conference tournament (except for the Ivy League, where you should predict the team’s finish in the conference)
Your team’s leader in scoring
Your team’s leading rebounder
Your team’s leader in assists
Your team’s leader in steals

The scoring, rebounding, assist and steal leaders will be based on totals, not averages, and are through whatever day I do the final calculations.

You do not need to predict any of the tiebreakers. If you don’t make a prediction, that tiebreaker will be scored as 0.

For purposes of this contest, all games in the preseason WNIT count (which means you have to figure out how far your team will go) and you stop predicting at the end of the regular schedule (which means you don’t predict conference tournament results).

I’m going to score the contest like this:

1 point for reaching the worst possible record
1 point for reaching the most likely record
2 additional points for hitting the most likely record exactly
1 point for hitting the best record exactly
-1 point for a record better than the best predicted record
0.1 points for getting a tiebreaker right
-0.1 points for getting a tiebreaker wrong

As I mentioned above, if you choose not to do a tiebreaker, you will be given a 0 in that category, but that’s better than getting -0.1.

Entries are due before your team plays its first game. You can enter as many times as you want, but you have to have a different team for each entry. You can enter by posting in this thread, sending me a PM on this board or emailing me at duribe8@gmail.com. I will post all of the entries when the last team has played its first game and will provide updates along the way.

If you have questions, check out the FAQ in the next post.

[fancy_daniel]

The FAQ, as promised. This remains largely unchanged since beknighted did it so let me know if any corrections are needed.


1. Can I make the same prediction for best and likely or worst and likely records?

Sure. I don’t think it’s a good idea, but that’s not my problem.

2. Do I have to predict everything?

No, but you limit the number of points you can get if you don’t predict a best record (or a likely record). If you don’t predict a worst record, I will treat the likely record as your prediction for the worst record for purposes of calculating points.

3. Is there a prize?

Rebkell bragging rights...

4. How many predictions can I make?

You can make predictions for as many teams as you like, but no more than one set of predictions per team. Last year more than half a dozen people made multiple predictions.

5. Suppose I guess wrong about the preseason WNIT or just mess up the number of games?

I will give you credit for everything but the two points for hitting the likely prediction dead on if your team has the number of wins or no more than the number of losses you predict. (E.g., if you say your team’s best possible record is 22-6 and it’s actually 21-6 or 22-5, you will get credit for meeting the “best” prediction.) I will not penalize you for exceeding the “best” prediction unless your team has both more than the number of predicted wins and fewer than the number of predicted losses.

6. When will you post updates and final results?
I'll try to post the results as soon after the season ends as possible. If I can give an update at some point I will, but considering my schedule, that is highly unlikely.

7. Is there some way I can keep track of how I’m doing?

See above.

8. How does the tiebreaker work?

You make as many of the predictions as you want. You get a tenth of a point for each one you get right, but lose a tenth of a point for each one you get wrong. This approach keeps all the players who get a certain number of points ahead of everyone who got one less point and behind everyone who got one more point.

The tiebreakers where you pick the players are based on totals, not averages. So a player who is hurt to start the season or who is eligible only for the spring semester probably isn’t a good choice unless she’s way better than anyone else on the team.

10. Why do I get penalized if my team does better than I predicted?

Well, first of all, in that case you should be happy enough that you were wrong, and not complain. More important, the idea is to predict your team’s record accurately, so of course you should be penalized for guessing wrong.

11. Can you give me an example?

Sure. If Goldy N. Eagle, who feels really good about her team, predicted that Boston College will have a best possible record of 23-6, a likely record of 19-10 and a worst possible record of 16-13 plus a best possible conference record of 11-3, a likely conference record of 9-5 and a worst possible conference record of 7-7, and BC actually goes 19-10 overall and 10-4 in conference, she'd get 4 points for the overall record (1 for hitting the worst possible record, 1 for reaching the likely record and 2 for hitting the likely record dead on and 2 points for the conference record (1 for hitting the worst possible record and 1 for reaching the likely record), for a base total of 6 points.

If she predicted that BC would reach the conferences finals, said that Kerri Shields would be the leading scorer, said that Karima Gabriel would be the leading rebounder, predicted that Shields would lead the team in assists and made no prediction about steals, and the team actually lost in the conference finals, Shields led in scoring, Alexa Coulombe led in rebounds, and Shayra Brown led in assists, she'd add break even on the tie-breaks (plus one-tenth each for the conference result and scoring, minus two-tenths for the rebound and assists predictions and zero for the steals because she made no prediction). Her final score would, therefore be 6. That score, by the way, would have finished in the top 10 last year.

12. Remind me again, what games am I predicting?

All of your team's regular season games before the conference tournament (or, in the Ivy League, any required playoff game). DO NOT include the conference tournament.

If your team is in the preseason WNIT, you just have to guess how well it will do to figure out what to predict. Sorry about that.

[Howee]

Oh, Ya. Go, Daniel!!

I'm certainly *game* for this, and will help in any way I can. Myrtle? Cardinal? Other Bright Fans??? Where arrrrrre you?

I'm going to try 3 teams this year (see sig line )

_________________
Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"

[fancy_daniel]

Well, I believe tip-offs begin Nov. 8.

So I think we should have at least 10 entries, otherwise we should cancel.

[Howee]

[TheWildJacko]