RebKell's Junkie Boards

[beknighted]

It’s time for the annual review of RPI versus seeding. As always, everything is from collegerpi.com, Jerry Palm’s really, really useful site.

The first team out (in my view, unjustly) was RPI 38 Southern California. After that it was Kansas at RPI 43 (and 15-15 overall) and Maryland at RPI 47. I don’t think too many people had problems with these teams missing the tournament. USC was nowhere near the highest RPI to miss the tournament, which was a 17, and it’s in the same range as the last teams out in 2008 and 2009.

The lowest RPI for an at large belongs to UW Green Bay, at 66. However, the at large team with the lowest seed was Fresno State, RPI 34, with a 13 seed. That’s pretty stunning (and more on that later). This UWGB ties for the lowest RPI to get an at large since 2003. For those who care, the last team in rankings from 2000 to 2008 were: 54 (Georgia 2009), 56 (Chattanooga 2005), 57 (West Virginia 2004), 61 (Auburn, 2008), 63 (DePaul 2007), 66 (California 2006), 67 (Miami (FL) 2003, Mississippi State 2002), 70 (Pepperdine 2000) and 73 (Louisville 2001). This bucks a trend – from 2004 to 2009 the average RPI of the “last-in” team was 59.5. Probably more important than anything else is that UWGB is the first non-major team to get the last at large bid since 2001, when Louisville was in Conference USA.

There are 13 teams in the tournament with RPIs between 36 and 51, the usual cutoff where getting in becomes dicey. That’s an 81% rate, higher than the average of the last ten years. Of those, 6 received at large bids, and four of those teams were non-majors. Three teams in that range didn’t get bids – all majors, which is kind of unusual

There are 4 teams in the tournament with RPIs between 52 and 70, my cutoff for any at large teams, and exactly the same as last year. That’s a 21 percent rate, a bit lower than the average of the last nine years. Two of them are at large teams and two are automatic bids. All four came from non-major conferences.

The last team into the tournament in terms of RPI (as an automatic bid, of course), was Southern, at RPI 186. This is nowhere near the record for the last ten years, which is held by the 2007 Holy Cross team, which had an RPI of 226.

As usual, the closer a team was to the top or the bottom of the bracket, the more likely that the RPI matched up with the seeding. All four of the 1 seeds and three of the four 2 seeds. This was the first time since 2003 that the top 4 teams in RPI all got 1 seeds. At the bottom end, the bottom 12 teams in terms of RPI got all of the 14, 15 and 16 seeds, and 10 of the 12 teams got the seeds the RPI would have predicted., and 3 of the 4 16 seeds were in the bottom 4 in RPI in the field. Three of the four 13 seeds also were where the RPI predicted they would be.

Altogether, 18 of the top 32 RPI teams got seeds that were different from what the RPI would have predicted. That’s about one less than usual. As usual, there were some noteworthy deviations. Here are the most noteworthy examples (bearing in mind that collegerpi’s records only go back to 2000):

UCLA’s 8 seed tied for the lowest given to a team at RPI 22. Last year, the Pac-10 teams all got better seeds than predicted by the RPI. Not this time.

Middle Tennessee’s 10 seed is the lowest given to a team at RPI 23 by two spots.

The 9 seed for Rutgers is the lowest given to a team at RPI 24, although only by one spot. Yeah, we all know why.

Iowa State’s 4 seed is the highest ever for a team at RPI 28. I assume the committee liked what they did in the Big XII, but it’s interesting to note that three other Big XII teams got seeds worse than their RPIs would have predicted.

And, yes, Fresno State's 13 seed was the worst for a team at RPI 34, but only by one spot.

Edited to add the last sentence, which mysteriously disappeared between my head and the post when it first was made.

[pilight]

Wisconsin-GB's bid was strange, but not quite as random as Louisiana-Lafayette's 2007 bid that nobody saw coming. The Phoenix have some tournament history, did win their conference, and scheduled (and beat) a few major conference opponents.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[Bretter]

[beknighted]

I'd guess that Lehigh won't be a problem, but Virginia could be tough. Monica Wright is quite special.

[Bretter]

I've yet to see Wright play, but obviously I've heard a ton about her and how special she is. I think I may have talked myself into picking Virgina.

(Not that it matters, UConn lurks in the round after that )

[mred]

[beknighted]

I forgot one more unusual item:

Mississippi State's 7 seed with a 50 RPI is the highest for a team with an RPI that low. (The RPI would predict a 13.)

[pilight]

[beknighted]