RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

The field of 64 is taking shape. Roughly 27 of the 33 at large bids have been earned:
ACC – (Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech, NC St.)
Big 10 – (Michigan St., Wisconsin)
Big 12 – (Finals loser, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma St., Baylor, Iowa St.)
Big East – (Notre Dame, West Virginia, Georgetown, St. John’s, DePaul, Rutgers)
Pac 10 – (UCLA, USC)
SEC – (Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi St.)
Atlantic 10 – (Temple, Dayton)
That leaves 6 spots remaining and perhaps 13 teams with a possible claim:
Boston College – This is the first of 3 teams from the ACC. The case for BC is it tied N Carolina in conference and advanced to the ACC semis. It had wins over all five teams in the conference that will be going to the NCAA and also beat Fresno St and Iowa. The case against is simple, 17-15 is not a good enough record.
California – For: 12-4 in last 16, five of their losses were against top 10. Against: Only 1 good win over USC, but if it beats Stanford today, that would make their resume much better.
Fresno State –FOR: Undefeated in conference. Only loss outside RPI top 50 was to La. Tech by 2 in conference final. AGAINST: No good wins (St. Mary’s is the best).
Iowa – FOR: Finished tied for third in Big 10 and reached conference final. 11-3 in last 14 games with two of the losses to Ohio State. AGAINST: 7 losses outside top 50, most of anyone under consideration (tied with BC)
James Madison – If they beat Old Dominion this is moot. For: Wins over Virginia and Georgetown; their 6 losses included 1 in OT two more by a combined 4 points, one when Dawn Evans was out and one at Duke. AGAINST: Lost 5 games in a mid-major conference.
Maryland – FOR: 19 wins, only 1 bad loss to Towson. AGAINST: 5-9 in ACC, no good wins OOC, only win over definite NCAA team is 1 point victory over Virginia
Michigan – FOR: Win over Xavier, 3 more wins over RPI top 50; no losses outside of RPI top 100. AGAINST: 8-10 in Big 10. Xavier is the only win against the RPI top 47. If Michigan gets in it will be because the Selection Committee relied too much on the “gory details”
North Carolina – FOR: Taken as a whole their body of work is better than anyone else on the list. AGAINST: 2-8 in their last 10
Old Dominion – If they beat James Madison this is moot. FOR: Won CAA regular season, lost in conference final on opponent’s home court. AGAINST: 2-8 non conference, only 1 top 50 win (JMU)
Syracuse – FOR: three RPI top 25 wins. AGAINST: Abysmal non-conference schedule included 8 teams ranked 268 or lower; 7-9 in Big East; 2 of the 3 top 25 wins were over #25 Rutgers. As with Michigan, this is a “gory details” anomaly.
TCU – FOR: Won the Mountain West regular season; beat Texas A&M. Against: Lost 6 games to teams outside RPI top 50. Only Iowa and Boston College among top 50 teams have more (7) and everyone else has 5 or less.
UALR – FOR: 26-6; tied for Sun Belt regular season title; lost in OT to MTSU in conference final: 21-1 in last 22. AGAINST: Only one win over top 75.
Vermont – FOR: 25-6, wins over Dayton, NC St. and BC. AGAINST: Loss to Boston U. Strength of schedule is only 116.
TCU and Vermont should be locks, but the Committee has often been cruel to mid-majors. Iowa should claim a bid based on how it finished the season. James Madison has a very good chance if it loses close to ODU, but ODU is probably out. I wouldn’t put North Carolina in, but I suspect that the Committee will overlook just how bad they were in the last 6 weeks. Fresno State and UALR are virtual mirror images. Fresno has the better RPI but UALR has 1 good win. I’d put them both in, but if there is only 1 spot, give it to UALR.

[pilight]

I'd pick Iowa, Vermont, TCU, Cal, James Madison, Michigan. If JMU wins tomorrow, add Fresno State.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[bricklayer]

[myrtle]

I would put DePaul, Rutgers, and Miss. State out there on the bubble too so that is 9 bubble teams to choose.

IN: DePaul's OOC win against Florida State is probably enough to put them in.

Rutgers loss to GW does not look good but there are so many bad or questionable teams that they will probably get in.

Out: Cal has done nothing to deserve a spot. A loss to San Jose State seals their non-inclusion.

I have a problem with teams with negative in-conference records no matter how good the conference.

Out: Michigan, BC and ODU just have too many losses.

Out: UALR didn't play anybody.

Out: UNC should finally be penalized for playing all those preseason cupcakes. Plus they have a losing in conference record.

IN: Iowa is a special case because their best player was out for a lot of the early part of the season and I put them in based on the conference tourny, where they really should have beaten OSU.

I'm adding Green Bay because of their preseason wins over Wisconsin and DePaul. I thought they were out but when I look at who else is on the bubble, I think they belong there.

Also Toledo should be considered.

IN: I think JMU and Vermont have done enough that regardless of their tourny finals they should be in.

Illinois State just lost in their conference final and they should be included on the bubble.

That leaves 5 (or 6 if JMU wins)spots and my bubble teams for those spots are: Rutgers, Miss.State, Fresno State, TCU, Wisc GB, Toledo, and Ill.State. I think Fresno State is at the bottom of this list so one of the last 4 out.

[calbearman76]

I agree that Illinois State is in the mix. Frankly, I had put them in as the conference winner and forgot they hadn't won the conference yet. The case for Illinois State is that it won the regular season of the MVC and the MVC is a better conference than either the WAC or the Sun Belt. The Redbirds also beat UCLA. The case against is that UCLA is the only top 100 victory. ISU is certainly on the bubble, but I wouldn't put them in.

With regard to Wisconsin Green Bay, the Horizon is the 17th ranked conference and the Phoenix lost 4 sub-100 games, including 2 to sub 200 teams. To me that more than makes up for the wins over DePaul and Wisconsin.

Toledo did have a win over Dayton, but I believe it played itself off the bubble with the late losses to Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. 5 of Toledo's 8 losses come to sub-100 teams.

[beknighted]

[bgsufalcon24]

[beknighted]

[calbearman76]

With the wins by James Madison and Vermont, the bubble is down to five open spots and 15 contenders. What makes this nice is it becomes a big conference vs. small conference showdown.

Big Conference Teams

Iowa
North Carolina
Michigan
Boston College
Maryland
Syracuse
California

Small Conference Teams

TCU
UALR
Fresno St.
Illinois State
Old Dominion
St. Bonaventure
Wisconsin Green Bay
Gardner Webb

(I added in Gardner Webb and UWGB because they have been getting votes in the polls and I added St. Bonny because of their inclusion by beknighted)

I listed the teams as I rate them within each group. Although the margins are razor thin in some cases the resumes are easier to assess within each group. TCU and Iowa stand out and should get bids. After that it is philosophy. Weighing the play in February and March more heavily knocks out North Carolina. Putting a premium on Top 50 wins puts Boston College in; looking at sub-50 losses knocks them out. Looking at how a team was knocked out of the automatic bid helps UALR (OT in the Sun Belt Championship game), Fresno St. (2 point loss in the WAC Championship game) and Gardner Webb (2 point loss to Liberty in the Big South Championship game). Giving benefit for hosting and the potential for getting fans in seats helps Old Dominion and Cal. Looking at computer ratings (such as Sagarin, Massey and Dolphin) helps Michigan, Syracuse and Cal.

Aside to beknighted - we seem to be close on just about everything. St. Bonny is another team that in my mind is helped by the RPI numbers more than by their actual results. Looking solely at their "gory details", 0-3 vs. top 25, 3-2 vs. 26-50 and no sub-200 losses the numbers are reasonable. But when 2 of the 3 top 50 wins are over #48 Marist and #47 Bowling Green the numbers look much worse. Still, I have learned over the years that those categories often hold more weight than they should, so I put them on the list.

[pilight]

I tried something else. I took all the teams from Palm's Gory Details list. 31 have automatic bids, which leaves 73 teams for 33 slots.

First, I eliminated any team that doesn't have a top 50 RPI win. There were 15 such teams, including Fresno State. That left 58 teams for 33 slots.

Next, I eliminated any team that has a sub 200 RPI loss and no top 25 RPI wins. There were six teams, including Wisconsin-GB. That left 52 teams for 33 slots.

Next, I eliminated any team whose sub 100 RPI losses were equal to or greater than their top 50 RPI wins. There were eight such teams, including Arkansas-Little Rock. That left 44 teams for 33 slots.

Next, I eliminated any team with 15 or more total losses. No such team has gotten an at-large bid in a very long time. There were three such teams, including Boston College. That left 41 teams for 33 slots.

Next, I eliminated any non-major with an RPI over 60. There were no such teams remaining.

Next, I eliminated any major conference team with an RPI over 50 and a losing conference record. There were eight such teams, including Michigan. That left 33 teams for 33 slots.

Which 33 teams? These:

Baylor
Dayton
DePaul
Florida St
Georgetown
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Hartford
Iowa
Iowa State
Kentucky
LSU
Maryland
Michigan St
Mississippi St
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Carolina St
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
Rutgers
Southern California
St. John's
TCU
Temple
Texas
UCLA
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Wisconsin


Will those be the at-large teams? Perhaps not, but it wouldn't be an unreasonable group.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[calbearman76]

It is a reasonable group, but I don't believe that Wake Forest has a real shot. My picks have Fresno St and UALR inj instead of Maryland and Wake Forest. I posted my field of 64 projection, complete with locations, in "The Field of 64" thread

[beknighted]