RebKell's Junkie Boards

[njjosh]

Aside for the beatdowns handed out by UConn, Tennessee and Stanford, a very entertaining second round. And some interesting matchups await in the Sweet 16.

I really like the Maryland-Vanderbilt matchup. Vandy's propensity for turnovers worries me, especially against a team with Maryland's physical and athletic prowess, but when they do hold on to the ball, I think Vandy's offense can do some things. The Terps seem only willing to play defense in spurts, but those spurts are almost always enough to beat the teams they come across. Will that still be the case against Vandy?

How will McCoughtry do against the 'Heels' speed and athleticism?

Texas A&M vs. Duke is also intriguing.

[FS02]

I think Texas A&M will handle Duke unless the Blue Devils can play a lot better than they did tonight.

My game to watch would be Vandy vs. Maryland. The Terps haven't exactly been dazzling so far (excepting M. Coleman)...

[bballfan2005]

There are some interesting match-ups ahead in the Sweet 16.

Greensboro

(1)UConn/(5)Old Dominion (ODU)*
UConn wins if: They show up. Not even joking.
ODU wins if: They hit around 15 three-pointers and keep UConn off the boards.

"Real talk": ODU enters the contest with momentum coming off a thrilling OT win over UVA at the Ted. However, they don't have the personnel to match up with UConn at ANY position, much less at SF (Maya Moore)! That's a scary thought. ODU likes to push tempo, but that plays right into the Huskies' hands (or "paws", in this case). Wendy Larry's too stubborn a coach to change her strategy (i.e. slow down tempo and play junk defenses on Moore and Charles so they won't kill you), so don't be surprised if UConn's got this thing up to 30 by the 10-minute mark in the second half (I certainly hope that's not the case).

(2)Rutgers/(6)George Washington*
Rutgers wins if: They score 70 or more points (Vaughn 20 or more) and force at least 17 turnovers (10 steals).
GW wins if: Adair, Beck, and Lawrence combine for 45 points; they hold RU below 60.

"Real talk": I don't know who these perpetrators are wearing Rutgers uniforms, but they've made the Scarlet Knights into what appears to be a better team in the postseason. Being able to score 82 and 69 points in the NCAA Tournament when you're pretty much forced to be a half-court team is impressive. They should be able to keep up the half-court scoring against the Colonials, a team that's big on heart but not as big on athleticism or pure talent. It'd be nice if this game was close, but...I...just...don't...see...it.

What does that mean, Greensboro?: UConn/Rutgers, part trois (as predicted by the media). The Big East will have at least one rep in the Final Four again this season.

Oklahoma City

(1)Tennessee/(5)Notre Dame*
Tennessee wins if: Anosike controls the glass; Bjorklund heats up off the bench
Notre Dame wins if: They believe it's 2001 instead of 2008

"Real talk": Tennessee "avoided" having to face Oklahoma in OKC. I don't think that game would've been any more difficult than this game, which is going to result in a fairly easy pull-away victory in the second half (after being up by 10 at halftime). While the Fighting Irish have a strong senior backcourt (Gaines and Allen) leading the way, it lacks the athleticism inside to keep pace with Tennessee.

(2)Texas A&M/(3)Duke
TAMU wins if: They just keep doing what they've done during this streak--that is, play physical defense, make perimeter shots, and take care of the ball.
Duke wins if: The Blue Devils pound the ball inside to Black and Cheek and get Jasmine Thomas going early.

"Real talk": Duke has ACC athletes being managed by a Big Ten coach in Big 12 country. The Blue Devils won't get booed as much as they did in College Park, but they aren't going to have the fans behind them. They're facing a team with a strong true PG (Franklin) who won't turn the ball over, so that reduces the number of easy scoring opportunities. Unless Waner is hitting unconsciously from deep, Duke could find itself staring at sizable deficits all game long.

What does that mean, Oklahoma City?: Tennessee and Texas A&M get acquainted in Big 12 country.

New Orleans

(1)UNC/(4)Louisville
UNC wins if: They go inside early and often to Larkins and Pringle (and Breland off the bench); the young guards (DeGraffenreid and Lucas) stay composed
Louisville wins if: David Padgett and Earl Clark decide to suit up for the women's team

"Real talk": Even with somewhat weak guard play, UNC will score early and often against UL. Patrika Barlow has to take care of the ball or else the game will be lost within the first ten minutes (and it's nearly impossible to mount a comeback against UNC without true post players). Jeff Walz is a solid coach, but he can't pull tricks out of his butt. If he tries to switch to junk defenses, McCants will go off and essentially nullify the one advantage UL has over UNC (Angel McCoughtry). If he plays Larkins and Pringle straight up, they will slaughter his front line. Louisville's only hope is that Chauntinise Wright rebounds out of her mind and avoids foul trouble long enough to use her big body on UNC's host of forwards. Still, that won't be enough against a Larkins-led Tar Heel team that's got a ton of frontcourt depth with Iman McFarland back.

(2)LSU/(3)Oklahoma State
LSU wins if: Chaney and Hightower keep OSU from packing it in on Fowles; White avoids foul trouble trying to slow down Riley
OSU wins if: Riley and Green combine for 45; Riley limits her turnovers; Cordero contributes (scoring, defense)

"Real talk": Okie State's had a nice run, but it ends with this round. They'll at least make the game interesting thanks to Riley and Green, but neither can beat LSU all by herself. One or two of those "inside" players (Cordero, Smith) will have to step up her game again. For LSU, I expect Erica White to pick her spots as to when to push tempo and when to slow it up and pound the ball inside. Thanks to OSU's lack of a true inside game, the Tigers will have plenty of opportunities to rebound and push tempo. Oklahoma State will have to improve its transition defense if it wants to have a shot at keeping this game within reach throughout. In the end, though, senior leadership means a lot this time of year. LSU's players have too much FF experience to fall short of reaching yet another Final Four.

What does that mean, New Orleans?: UNC will have to go through LSU in the Tigers' backyard if they want to advance to their third straight Final Four.

Spokane

(1)Maryland/(4)Vanderbilt
Maryland wins if: The guards deliver the ball into Langhorne and Harper early and often; they play some semblance of defense for 40 minutes
Vandy wins if: Christina Wirth shows why people are calling for her to be preseason SEC POY in 2008-09; the defense/pressure is excellent as usual and the threes are falling

"Real talk": Maryland shouldn't be on "upset alert" this early in the tournament, but they will be. While Vanderbilt doesn't have near the athleticism Ole Miss had last year, they do have the ability to pressure opponents into making poor decisions--and they face one of the shakiest point guards in Division 1. And let's be real. Maryland struggled at home with Coppin State and Nebraska. NEBRASKA! Not to say that the Cornhuskers aren't talented, but they shouldn't have the personnel to provide a scare to Maryland on its home court. Cross-court travel could be a problem for a thin Maryland team, as they now have to adjust to another time zone while Vandy finished up playing two time zones away from home.

(2)Stanford/(6)Pitt
Stanford wins if: Appel and Pedersen wear down Pitt's interior; the defense contains Zellous
Pitt wins if: The perimeter players can repeatedly take their defenders off the dribble; Walker DOESN'T foul out.

"Real talk": This isn't that favorable a match-up for Stanford due to the lack of athleticism on the perimeter, but Wiggins is so focused on getting her team to a Final Four that it shouldn't matter. Zellous is certainly capable of going off for Pitt, but she needs Marcedes Walker to go to work down low to create more scoring opportunities for perimeter players.

What does that mean, Spokane?: Wiggins is a little disappointed because she'll have to focus on taking apart Vanderbilt and not Maryland like she'd hoped.

*=rematch from regular season

_________________
Avatar: The King has his ring!

Mathies to LA 2013

[JACKOWACKO]

I was really looking forward to CP3 vs CP3 and Plumley vs Bobbit again. damn Oklahoma!

_________________
LAUREN JACKSON is the greatest of alltime.

[00NDROCKS]

Sweet 16.......

5 Big East
3 SEC
3 ACC
2 Big 12
1 Pac 10
1 A10
1 CAA

_________________
" My best seasons in the WNBA have been the two that I spent in Indiana. Not only did I get the chance to play in front of some of the most passionate fans in the WNBA, but I also had an incredible opportunity to play alongside one of the best players in the history of the game in Tamika Catchings. " ANNA DEFORGE.

[Stephen Shirley]

[Koopster]

[fancy_daniel]

Fancy_Daniel thinks...



is dreamy.

[beknighted]

[Swoopes_Tompson_Comets22]

[pilight]

OK, I'll make picks


UConn vs ODU

Closer than people expect, certainly closer than UConn's previous tournament wins, but the poor Monarchs don't have the guns to keep up with the Hussies for 40.


Rutgers vs GW

The Scarlets beat the Colonials like a rented drum back in November. Perhaps Joe McKeown will liken that to Duke drubbing Rutgers early last season only to come up short in the March rematch as a way to inspire his team. It matters not, since inspiration isn't the deciding factor here. Rutgers wins easily.


Maryland vs Vanderbilt

The Terps are capable of beating anyone if they can stay focused. The Commodores are capable of losing to anyone, seemingly at random. Vandy really only had one good win this year, beating Duke in Nashville right after Thanksgiving. Maryland beat Duke in Durham five weeks ago, and despite their issues haven't lost to anyone that doesn't have top 10 talent. Vandy ain't got that.


Stanford vs Pitt

The Panthers are a great story, but it's time for a reality check. They're 7-7 since the first of February. They got here by beating a mid-major that didn't even win their conference and a banged up B12 team. The Card had an easy road also, but they've already proven their ability to beat title contenders and haven't lost since Twelfth Day. Don't see Pitt containing Wiggins or making much of a game of it.


North Carolina vs Louisville

Angel McCoughtry is very good. Can she single handedly carry her team, Swoopes-like, to the F4? Probably not, but this will be her first major test of the tournament. Should be high scoring. McCoughtry gives Louisville a puncher's chance, but smart money stays with UNC.


LSU vs Oklahoma State

"So when are you going to pick some upsets?"; I hear you asking. Right about now... Andrea Riley is due to just go off on someone, like she did in the first Oklahoma game. If it doesn't happen here, well, she won't get another chance. If Julianne Viani can go for 21 on the Lady Tigers, Riley can hit 40. This is the upset special, mark it down.


Tennessee vs Notre Dame

The LVs crushed the Irish in South Bend back in early January. They will again in OKC this weekend. People with a low tolerance for announcer Parker gushing should avoid this game as there will be plenty.


Texas A&M vs Duke

The Aggies seem to be peaking at the right time. The Debs are still up and down. Lots of talent that's not always used effectively there. A&M should have a favorable crowd in OKC, which is what tilts me in their favor.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[AAEmotion]

[PRballer]

I think if Vandy is hitting their shots and not turning over, there could be a big upset up in Spokane.

Just a hunch.