RebKell's Junkie Boards

[beknighted]

I was going to do a post on the Big XII and all the high RPI teams with conference records under .500 there, and then I took a look at collegerpi.com and discovered there are others.

As of this morning, here are the major conference teams with RPIs in the top 50 but losing conference records:

Georgia Tech (RPI 32, 5-6 in ACC)
Iowa State (RPI 34, 5-8 in the Big XII)
Texas (RPI 38, 4-8 in the Big XII)
Kansas (RPI 30, 4-8 in the Big XII)
Florida (RPI 37, 5-6 in the SEC)

Theoretically, any one of these teams could finish at or above .500. Georgia Tech and Florida both have a pretty decent shot, with three winnable games left for Tech and two for the Gators. In the Big XII, it’s pretty likely that all 3 will finish below .500 in the conference, given their remaining schedules, and it’s certain that at least one of them will, since Kansas plays both Texas and Iowa State between now and the end of the season. In fact, I would say the odds are pretty good that at least one, and potentially two, of the Big XII teams will finish at 6-10 or worse, but still be in the top 50 in RPI. (Texas has to win 3 of 4 to avoid this and A&M, Oklahoma and Kansas left, while Kansas has to do the same and has Texas, Iowa State and K State left.)

Given all this, I wondered what the odds were that any or all of these teams could make the NCAAs if they don’t reach .500. It turns out that there have been 19 teams with losing conference records and RPIs in the top 50 in major conferences since 2000. (They’re listed below.) A total of 7 of those have made the tournament, including 2 from the ACC in 2006. Of the group of 19, 5 have had RPIs between 30 and 40, and 2 of those have made the tournament, a slightly better proportion than of all of the teams in that group. However, all 7 of the teams that made the tournament have been one game from .500 – no 5-9 or 6-10 team (including Texas last year) has made the tournament, even with an RPI as high as 30.

All these things considered, I’m beginning to think that the Big XII won’t get the 9 slots that some people have predicted and may have trouble getting 8. If that’s the case, it will be interesting to see who benefits. Last year, a couple of surprise mid-major teams snuck into the tournament, but I wonder if it might turn out that the Big Ten or the Pac-10 does a little better than expected. It will be interesting.


The list:

* means the team made the tournament.

2007

Texas 6-10 in conference, RPI 30
Auburn 6-8, 45

2006

VA Tech 6-8, 16*
BC 6-8, 32*
Virginia 5-9, 42

2005 - check

VA Tech 6-8, 30*
Auburn 6-8, 38
Florida 5-9, 47

2004

Missouri 7-9, 45*
Arkansas 5-9, 42

2003

Auburn 5-9, 42

2002 – check

Georgia 6-8, 24*

2001

Arkansas 6-8, 28*
Alabama 5-9, 45

2000

Vandy 6-8, 17*
Florida 6-8, 22
Alabama 5-9, 50
Kentucky 5-9, 31
Arkansas 4-10, 49

[beknighted]

An update:

Georgia Tech won and is now 6-6 in the ACC
Texas lost and is now 4-9 in the Big XII
Kansas lost and is now 4-9 in the Big XII
Florida lost and is now 5-7 in the SEC
Iowa State didn't play and remains 4-8 in the Big XII

Texas and Kansas are now guaranteed to finish under .500, and with a game against each other one of them will finish no better than 6-10. Florida now looks likely to finish under .500, with a game left @ Tennessee. Georgia Tech has a winnable home game (VA Tech) and a tough road game (Virginia) left, but only needs to win one of them to finish at .500.