| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
 Posted: 02/22/08 1:39 pm ::: My NCAA Tournament Outlook |
Reply  |
|
These conferences are definitely one bidders. Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Horizon, Ivy, Mid-American, Missouri Valley, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, West Coast, WAC.
That totals 16 bids.
Locks:
A-10 (2): GW, Xavier
ACC (4): UNC, Maryland, Duke, Virginia
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma State
Big East ( : UConn, RU, WVU, ND, Pitt, DePaul, Syracuse, Louisville
Big Ten (1): Ohio State
Colonial (1): Old Dominion
Moutain West (2): Utah, Wyoming
Pac 10 (3): Stanford, Cal, ASU
SEC (5): LSU, Tenn, Vandy, Georgia, Auburn
That is a total of 32 bids. 32 + 16 = 48 bids
We assume that these teams should win their conference tournaments:
Hartford, Liberty, UC Santa Barbara, UTEP, Marist, Western Kentucky
That is 6 more bids. Totaling 54. That leaves 10 spaces open for bubble teams:
A-10 (1): Temple
ACC (3): Georgia Tech, Florida State, Boston College
Big 12 (2): Iowa State, Texas
Big Ten (3): Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan State
Colonial (1): James Madison
Moutain West (1): TCU
Pac 10 (1): USC
SEC (1): Kentucky, though a 13-13 record is not good, 7-5 in SEC
That totals 13. Out of those 13, I think the three that would not get in are Kentucky, James Madison, and ? ( Between Temple/Mich St/ BC)
However, this brings up the point about the six teams expected to win their conference tournaments. What if Marist, UTEP, and Liberty all slip up? I personally would feel that all three deserve to get in. Western Kentucky seems like somewhat of an outside shot with an RPI of 40, a 20-7 record, with a really bad loss to North Texas. Marist lost to Ohio State and Hartford, not bad. UTEP lost to Nebraska and Kansas State, not bad either. Liberty lost to UNC and at Virginia Tech, which is questionable, but they did win at Xavier. This brings us to what if UCSB slips up. An RPI of 82 is not strong and they do have some bad losses (Oregon, BYU), so maybe they have a worse chance than Kentucky. Finally, we have Hartford. They did beat Marist, but two losses in conference don't look so hot.
It can turn out to be a big mess, so lets hope these teams win their tournaments.
|
|
~UK~
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 364
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 2:50 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Auburn isn't a shoe-in for the tourney. They have a higher RPI than Kentucky and has games left with Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They may lose 2 of the 3. Kentucky has games left with Arkansas and South Carolina.
|
|
beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Posts: 11050
Location: Lost in D.C.
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:02 pm ::: Re: My NCAA Tournament Outlook |
Reply |
|
| mikeyc22 wrote: |
Locks:
A-10 (2): GW, Xavier
ACC (4): UNC, Maryland, Duke, Virginia
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma State
Big East (: UConn, RU, WVU, ND, Pitt, DePaul, Syracuse, Louisville
Big Ten (1): Ohio State
Colonial (1): Old Dominion
Moutain West (2): Utah, Wyoming
Pac 10 (3): Stanford, Cal, ASU
SEC (5): LSU, Tenn, Vandy, Georgia, Auburn |
I am reluctant to call some of these teams locks:
Xavier is at RPI 52 and has an 0-5 record against RPI top 25 teams, plus a loss to Cincinnati, which is an awful team. I know the win against Georgia is good, but there's just not much else.
DePaul seems to be in treacherous territory. Right now the RPI is at 39, which is outside the real comfort zone, and there's a real chance the Blue Demons will end up in the bottom half of the Big East.
The two Mountain West teams probably ought to be in, but in practice the committee is not always kind to teams like Wyoming, which when all is said and done may not have an RPI top 50 win during the last 4 months of the season. Utah's in a little better shape, but a couple of bad games or an early conference tournament loss could be troublesome.
As for ASU, it's hard for me to imagine the Pac-10 not getting a 3rd team in, but the Sun Devils aren't making it that easy. Their best win is over Iowa, and they could turn out to be victims of a too-tough schedule. I think they may have to win out the Pac-10 regular season to be safe.
And Auburn? They're 60th in RPI, with two questionable losses - St. Joseph's and Mississippi, which particuarly hurts because it's recent. They have a real chance at finishing below .500 in conference play in a year when the SEC is not sending 8 teams to the tournament. Given that 13 of the 18 wins are against teams with RPIs 100 or worse (6(!) against teams with RPIs of 200 or worse), I think a bid for Auburn is highly doubtful right now, and not remotely a lock.
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:09 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| ~UK~ wrote: |
| Auburn isn't a shoe-in for the tourney. They have a higher RPI than Kentucky and has games left with Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They may lose 2 of the 3. Kentucky has games left with Arkansas and South Carolina. |
I was reluctant to put them as a lock, but frankly, either way, I think they will get in. There are not many other strong candidates.
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:14 pm ::: Re: My NCAA Tournament Outlook |
Reply |
|
| beknighted wrote: |
I am reluctant to call some of these teams locks:
Xavier is at RPI 52 and has an 0-5 record against RPI top 25 teams, plus a loss to Cincinnati, which is an awful team. I know the win against Georgia is good, but there's just not much else.
DePaul seems to be in treacherous territory. Right now the RPI is at 39, which is outside the real comfort zone, and there's a real chance the Blue Demons will end up in the bottom half of the Big East.
The two Mountain West teams probably ought to be in, but in practice the committee is not always kind to teams like Wyoming, which when all is said and done may not have an RPI top 50 win during the last 4 months of the season. Utah's in a little better shape, but a couple of bad games or an early conference tournament loss could be troublesome.
As for ASU, it's hard for me to imagine the Pac-10 not getting a 3rd team in, but the Sun Devils aren't making it that easy. Their best win is over Iowa, and they could turn out to be victims of a too-tough schedule. I think they may have to win out the Pac-10 regular season to be safe.
And Auburn? They're 60th in RPI, with two questionable losses - St. Joseph's and Mississippi, which particuarly hurts because it's recent. They have a real chance at finishing below .500 in conference play in a year when the SEC is not sending 8 teams to the tournament. Given that 13 of the 18 wins are against teams with RPIs 100 or worse (6(!) against teams with RPIs of 200 or worse), I think a bid for Auburn is highly doubtful right now, and not remotely a lock. |
I was reluctant to call them locks too, but in contrast to the bubble teams, they looked stronger. I think Xavier is going to get in, and DePaul should too. Auburn is questionable, ASU should be fine, and I think both MT-West teams should get in, and TCU too.
|
|
~UK~
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 364
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:40 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| mikeyc22 wrote: |
| ~UK~ wrote: |
| Auburn isn't a shoe-in for the tourney. They have a higher RPI than Kentucky and has games left with Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They may lose 2 of the 3. Kentucky has games left with Arkansas and South Carolina. |
I was reluctant to put them as a lock, but frankly, either way, I think they will get in. There are not many other strong candidates. |
Why do you think they get in?
|
|
beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Posts: 11050
Location: Lost in D.C.
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:42 pm ::: Re: My NCAA Tournament Outlook |
Reply |
|
| mikeyc22 wrote: |
| I was reluctant to call them locks too, but in contrast to the bubble teams, they looked stronger. I think Xavier is going to get in, and DePaul should too. Auburn is questionable, ASU should be fine, and I think both MT-West teams should get in, and TCU too. |
I'm going to have a long post coming up on who's gotten and who hasn't in the past as part of my never-ending Fun with RPI series, but suffice it to say that history suggests that, ASU aside, about half of the teams I mentioned would get in based on their current credentials, and the other half wouldn't. They all have chances to improve their status in the next couple of weeks, but they still have work to do.
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:47 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| ~UK~ wrote: |
| mikeyc22 wrote: |
| ~UK~ wrote: |
| Auburn isn't a shoe-in for the tourney. They have a higher RPI than Kentucky and has games left with Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They may lose 2 of the 3. Kentucky has games left with Arkansas and South Carolina. |
I was reluctant to put them as a lock, but frankly, either way, I think they will get in. There are not many other strong candidates. |
Why do you think they get in? |
Wins at Ohio State, I think they beat GW. Who would take their spot?
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:48 pm ::: Re: My NCAA Tournament Outlook |
Reply |
|
| beknighted wrote: |
| I'm going to have a long post coming up on who's gotten and who hasn't in the past as part of my never-ending Fun with RPI series, but suffice it to say that history suggests that, ASU aside, about half of the teams I mentioned would get in based on their current credentials, and the other half wouldn't. They all have chances to improve their status in the next couple of weeks, but they still have work to do. |
The thing is, yes, some of these locks are questionable, but if you bump them down to bubbles, they are surely stronger than the bubbles. So I just kept them up their assuming they will get in.
|
|
beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Posts: 11050
Location: Lost in D.C.
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:51 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| mikeyc22 wrote: |
| ~UK~ wrote: |
| mikeyc22 wrote: |
| ~UK~ wrote: |
| Auburn isn't a shoe-in for the tourney. They have a higher RPI than Kentucky and has games left with Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They may lose 2 of the 3. Kentucky has games left with Arkansas and South Carolina. |
I was reluctant to put them as a lock, but frankly, either way, I think they will get in. There are not many other strong candidates. |
Why do you think they get in? |
Wins at Ohio State, I think they beat GW. Who would take their spot? |
Auburn lost to GW, and has no RPI top 25 wins. In games against RPI top 50 teams, the Lady Tigers have wins over Ohio State, Arizona State and Georgia, and losses to George Washington, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU and Florida. They also have losses to RPI 117 St. Joseph's and RPI 110 Mississippi.
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 3:58 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| beknighted wrote: |
| Auburn lost to GW, and has no RPI top 25 wins. In games against RPI top 50 teams, the Lady Tigers have wins over Ohio State, Arizona State and Georgia, and losses to George Washington, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU and Florida. They also have losses to RPI 117 St. Joseph's and RPI 110 Mississippi. |
Oh, I went out on a limb and named 67 possible tournament teams. I think there is a good shot that Auburn will be one of them. I am not a fan of Auburn. Just saying.
|
|
bullsky
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
Posts: 20310
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 4:12 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Does 'Cuse have a good win yet? Because they have two bad losses (Georgetown and Providence).
_________________
"Don't do something until you get it right, do it until you can't do it wrong."
- Geno Auriemma
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 4:16 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Orange][Krush wrote: |
| Does 'Cuse have a good win yet? Because they have two bad losses (Georgetown and Providence). |
Louisville, if that is good.
|
|
beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Posts: 11050
Location: Lost in D.C.
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 4:17 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Orange][Krush wrote: |
| Does 'Cuse have a good win yet? Because they have two bad losses (Georgetown and Providence). |
Louisville (RPI 16) and DePaul (39). Right now, Georgetown falls into the category of a mediocre loss (RPI 90), but that could change. Other decent, if not exciting, wins include Penn State, Villanova and Marquette.
|
|
sbjules
Joined: 22 Dec 2004
Posts: 3476
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 5:16 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Quote: |
| These conferences are definitely one bidders. Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Horizon, Ivy, Mid-American, Missouri Valley, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, West Coast, WAC. |
Where's the Big West? They will have only one entry.
|
|
snowstormxu
Joined: 05 Mar 2006
Posts: 70
Location: Cincinnati
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 5:55 pm ::: Re: My NCAA Tournament Outlook |
Reply |
|
| beknighted wrote: |
I am reluctant to call some of these teams locks:
Xavier is at RPI 52 and has an 0-5 record against RPI top 25 teams, plus a loss to Cincinnati, which is an awful team. I know the win against Georgia is good, but there's just not much else. |
Actually, X is 0-2 vs Top 25, and 2-3 vs Top 50, but your point is well noted. Either way, not good.
X had an RPI of 42 a few days ago. Then they had to play #329 Fordham and the RPI dropped 10 spots to 52. 
All I can say is that I hope X gets in but I won't be surprised if they don't. Cincinnati is horrible and that should NEVER have been a loss. The Penn State win looked really good about a month ago, but they have since tanked. Anyone know what happened to them?
I think as long as X can win out, and get to the championship game in the A-10 Tournament, they'll get in. Anything less and it's WNIT time.
|
|
beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Posts: 11050
Location: Lost in D.C.
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 6:26 pm ::: Re: My NCAA Tournament Outlook |
Reply |
|
| snowstormxu wrote: |
| beknighted wrote: |
I am reluctant to call some of these teams locks:
Xavier is at RPI 52 and has an 0-5 record against RPI top 25 teams, plus a loss to Cincinnati, which is an awful team. I know the win against Georgia is good, but there's just not much else. |
Actually, X is 0-2 vs Top 25, and 2-3 vs Top 50, but your point is well noted. Either way, not good.
X had an RPI of 42 a few days ago. Then they had to play #329 Fordham and the RPI dropped 10 spots to 52.
All I can say is that I hope X gets in but I won't be surprised if they don't. Cincinnati is horrible and that should NEVER have been a loss. The Penn State win looked really good about a month ago, but they have since tanked. Anyone know what happened to them?
I think as long as X can win out, and get to the championship game in the A-10 Tournament, they'll get in. Anything less and it's WNIT time. |
You're right - I must have picked out the wrong line on Jerry Palm's Gory Details page. (It may have been Purdue; I have no idea why.)
I'm not sure X has to win out AND get to the A-10 final to make the tournament, but any loss before the semis (and even in the semis if the other team isn't GW or Temple) probably is, as you say, a ticket to the WNIT.
|
|
PRballer
Joined: 18 Apr 2007
Posts: 2544
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 7:23 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| mikey, good work and appreciate the time you put into this. Now the headache is where to put everyone!
|
|
mikeyc22
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2396
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 11:10 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| sbjules wrote: |
Where's the Big West? They will have only one entry. |
I said there is an outside shot that UCSB gets an at large bid if they lose the conference tourney.
|
|
bullsky
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
Posts: 20310
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/22/08 11:18 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
It'll be interesting to see what happens in the MVC. For years, Drake has dominated the post season tourney, even if they weren't good. But now that the tourney has moved to a neutral site(St. Louis, I believe), Drake may not have the upper hand it once had(the tourney used to be played at Drake).
Doesn't Illinois State have a high RPI? If they potentially lose in a late round of the MVC tourney, I think they still might have a shot at an at large bid.
_________________
"Don't do something until you get it right, do it until you can't do it wrong."
- Geno Auriemma
|
|
beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Posts: 11050
Location: Lost in D.C.
Back to top |
| Posted: 02/23/08 7:45 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| Orange][Krush wrote: |
It'll be interesting to see what happens in the MVC. For years, Drake has dominated the post season tourney, even if they weren't good. But now that the tourney has moved to a neutral site(St. Louis, I believe), Drake may not have the upper hand it once had(the tourney used to be played at Drake).
Doesn't Illinois State have a high RPI? If they potentially lose in a late round of the MVC tourney, I think they still might have a shot at an at large bid. |
Illinois State is sitting at RPI 38 right now, borderline territory for a non-major conference team.
|
|
|
|
