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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 4489 Location: Los Angeles
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Posted: 05/09/07 2:46 pm ::: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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Okay, so I did an extraordinarily non-scientific top-10 of WCBB for this last decade, 1998-2007. I figured since ESPN was doing their own, then Rebkellian can manage and discuss this themselves as well (not to mention that it gives us something to talk about).
I only really looked at the results of the last 10 NCAA tourneys and looked at the teams performance (I didn't want to work yesterday) and assigned values from the Sweet Sixteen to the Championship. I weighed the championship very heavily, however, some teams run ahead of others simply because of their consistency over the course of the decade. Hence, a Duke would be ahead of Purdue because while Purdue won a championship in that span, Duke has been the overall more consistent team with more Elite Eight, Final Four, etc., appearances.
Here is my wholy unscientific and subjective (althought not too subjective -- it is after all based on something) list of top 10 teams of the last decade.
1. Connecticut
2. Tennessee
3. Duke
4. Purdue
5. LSU
6. Notre Dame
7. Rutgers
T7. Baylor
8. North Carolina
9. Maryland
10. La. Tech
Honrable Mention (in order of NCAA tourney performance): Georgia, Oklahoma, Penn State, Texas Tech, Stanford, Michigan State, NC State, Vanderbilt
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Stephen Shirley
Joined: 18 Dec 2006 Posts: 787
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bballfan2005
Joined: 22 Aug 2005 Posts: 25315 Location: Somewhere here and there
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Posted: 05/09/07 4:53 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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fancy_daniel wrote: |
I weighed the championship very heavily, however, |
And that's why the list looks very suspect to me beyond the top three.
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bullsky
Joined: 04 Jun 2005 Posts: 20310
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Posted: 05/09/07 4:56 pm ::: |
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Baylor? Really?
_________________ "Don't do something until you get it right, do it until you can't do it wrong."
- Geno Auriemma
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 4489 Location: Los Angeles
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Posted: 05/09/07 6:12 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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bballfan2005 wrote: |
fancy_daniel wrote: |
I weighed the championship very heavily, however, |
And that's why the list looks very suspect to me beyond the top three. |
Well, I figured that the championships could not be taken too lightly. To win one is such an enormous task that I thought they merited that type of consideration.
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bballfan2005
Joined: 22 Aug 2005 Posts: 25315 Location: Somewhere here and there
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Posted: 05/09/07 6:20 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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fancy_daniel wrote: |
Well, I figured that the championships could not be taken too lightly. To win one is such an enormous task that I thought they merited that type of consideration. |
Almost. Getting there is an enormous accomplishment. Winning one is pretty much a crapshoot. I don't see anything wrong with weighting a national championship heavily compared to, say, a Sweet 16 appearance or below, but it should not be weighted that much heavier than a Final Four appearance.
You can't really say that teams like Notre Dame, Maryland, and Baylor should be mentioned in the same light as Duke or LSU. But when you weight the national championship wins too heavily, you're saying just that.
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 2817 Location: New York
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Posted: 05/09/07 7:47 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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bballfan2005 wrote: |
fancy_daniel wrote: |
Well, I figured that the championships could not be taken too lightly. To win one is such an enormous task that I thought they merited that type of consideration. |
Almost. Getting there is an enormous accomplishment. Winning one is pretty much a crapshoot. I don't see anything wrong with weighting a national championship heavily compared to, say, a Sweet 16 appearance or below, but it should not be weighted that much heavier than a Final Four appearance.
You can't really say that teams like Notre Dame, Maryland, and Baylor should be mentioned in the same light as Duke or LSU. But when you weight the national championship wins too heavily, you're saying just that. |
Have you seen the list ESPN is putting together for the men? It is really neat looking at it. I was going to start this thread, but fancy beat me to it.
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bballfan2005
Joined: 22 Aug 2005 Posts: 25315 Location: Somewhere here and there
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Posted: 05/09/07 7:55 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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ucbart wrote: |
Have you seen the list ESPN is putting together for the men? It is really neat looking at it. I was going to start this thread, but fancy beat me to it. |
I haven't seen it, but I'll go take a look.
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 2817 Location: New York
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Posted: 05/09/07 8:12 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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bballfan2005 wrote: |
ucbart wrote: |
Have you seen the list ESPN is putting together for the men? It is really neat looking at it. I was going to start this thread, but fancy beat me to it. |
I haven't seen it, but I'll go take a look. |
You will like it bball!!! They put together the top programs and the top teams of the last decade. I'm going to put together both lists tonight I think.
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bballfan2005
Joined: 22 Aug 2005 Posts: 25315 Location: Somewhere here and there
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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Posted: 05/09/07 10:49 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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I'd be interested in knowing the weighting, but I'd be inclined to give a school a lot of credit for a national championship, and certainly significantly more than for making the Final Four.
Part of it depends on your goals in creating the list. If you're looking for the most consistently good programs, then you'd tend to give less weight to getting further. If you're looking for the programs that produce the best teams, then you'd want to give more weight to better results.
My two cents are that 1 and 2 are obvious, and 3 isn't far behind in terms of obviousness. After that, it gets harder. I've personally always thought that Bayor and Carolina underachieved on average, but I'm not sure that means they don't belong on the list. Maryland's results are mostly in the last three years, which makes it a little trickier.
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 4489 Location: Los Angeles
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Posted: 05/10/07 10:57 am ::: |
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Well, the whole point of this thread is to be dissected. I expect everyone to definitely give their opinion.
I did have the championship weighed much lower but then I noticed that some teams like Uconn would fall behind Tennessee, because despite all the championships, Tenn. has been more consistent in getting to the final four.
Strangely enough, of the list I made, only the top-three teams have made at least the sweet sixteen in all ten years.
Some teams move up because they started the decade strongly and fell off (La. Tech) or some team's accomplishments have come more recently (Maryland).
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BUfan
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 Posts: 103
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Posted: 05/10/07 11:30 am ::: |
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How in the world would someone think Baylor has underachieved? From no where seven years ago to a national championship and several NCAA appearances including a couple sweet 16's.
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Jerrybear
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 Posts: 308 Location: Michigan
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Posted: 05/10/07 11:46 am ::: |
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the list looks about right to me, with #1 and 2 being no-brainers and more or less interchangeable. i might put the Vols ahead of the Huskies, or maybe even have them tied for first.
unfortunately, if we were to do a bottom ten, my beloved Michigan Wolverines would more than likely be part of it.
Oh well, at least the Michigan softball team would be in the top ten!!!
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 4489 Location: Los Angeles
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Posted: 05/10/07 12:55 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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beknighted wrote: |
Part of it depends on your goals in creating the list. If you're looking for the most consistently good programs, then you'd tend to give less weight to getting further. If you're looking for the programs that produce the best teams, then you'd want to give more weight to better results.
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I thought about dealing with the regular season and then also adding the WNBA prospects, but it was such a pain to find results from ten years ago, that I quickly scrapped that. It would be an interesting experiment as some teams would probably move up (Stanford, Penn State, Vanderbilt). Although those could be considered teams that all underachieved in the post-season and you could knock them down for that as well.
I do think however that Purdue, LSU and Rutgers have definitely earned their spot. They have been very consistent or consistent enough to be part of the mix.
LSU is a no brainer with 4 FF appearances and 2 Elite Eights.
Purdue of course has one championship, one FF, and 3 EE's.
UNC has two FF's and 2 EE's.
Rutgers has two FF's and 2 EE's.
Notre Dame is probably the sketchiest but it's championship gets it over the top. Other than that, it has 4 Sweet Sixteen appearances.
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 4489 Location: Los Angeles
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barryi22
Joined: 10 Mar 2005 Posts: 474 Location: In the USA
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Posted: 05/10/07 8:10 pm ::: Re: Top-10 Programs of the last Decade |
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fancy_daniel wrote: |
Okay, so I did an extraordinarily non-scientific top-10 of WCBB for this last decade, 1998-2007. I figured since ESPN was doing their own, then Rebkellian can manage and discuss this themselves as well (not to mention that it gives us something to talk about).
I only really looked at the results of the last 10 NCAA tourneys and looked at the teams performance (I didn't want to work yesterday) and assigned values from the Sweet Sixteen to the Championship. I weighed the championship very heavily, however, some teams run ahead of others simply because of their consistency over the course of the decade. Hence, a Duke would be ahead of Purdue because while Purdue won a championship in that span, Duke has been the overall more consistent team with more Elite Eight, Final Four, etc., appearances.
Here is my wholy unscientific and subjective (althought not too subjective -- it is after all based on something) list of top 10 teams of the last decade.
1. Connecticut
2. Tennessee
3. Duke
4. Purdue
5. LSU
6. Notre Dame
7. Rutgers
T7. Baylor
8. North Carolina
9. Maryland
10. La. Tech
Honrable Mention (in order of NCAA tourney performance): Georgia, Oklahoma, Penn State, Texas Tech, Stanford, Michigan State, NC State, Vanderbilt |
I think your list is pretty good, UT and UCONN is probably the edge to UCONN, but I think it is debatable if you look past the 4-2 championship edge. Tennessee has made it to 5 championship games, UCONN 4, Tennessee 7 final fours, UCONN 5(all in a row), Tennessee 9 Elite 8's, UCONN 8 Elite 8's, both 10 final fours. Head to head the record is 9-7 UCONN. I'd still give the edge to UCONN because they have won 2 more championships, but Tennessee is a very very close 2nd.
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 05/10/07 8:20 pm ::: |
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In the last ten years, UConn is 4-0 against Tennessee in the Final Four, including 3-0 in championship games.
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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Posted: 05/10/07 10:15 pm ::: |
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BUfan wrote: |
How in the world would someone think Baylor has underachieved? From no where seven years ago to a national championship and several NCAA appearances including a couple sweet 16's. |
Well, Baylor lost in the 2nd round as a #2 seed in 2002 and didn't make the tournament in 2003.
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 4489 Location: Los Angeles
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 05/11/07 12:42 pm ::: |
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If you are considering conference titles, then you have to consider UCSB, for example.
Conference titles are great, but it depends on the conference...and to be honest, there is no greater equalizer than postseason performance (at least in theory).
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 4489 Location: Los Angeles
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Posted: 05/11/07 1:01 pm ::: |
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CamrnCrz1974 wrote: |
If you are considering conference titles, then you have to consider UCSB, for example.
Conference titles are great, but it depends on the conference...and to be honest, there is no greater equalizer than postseason performance (at least in theory). |
Those were my thoughts initially. The second-run through was more to see how things would stack with those other factors taken into consideration.
However, I think the conference titles are less of a factor in the women's game as it is common for one or two teams to dominate.
Even in the big conferences, schools like Tenn., Uconn., Stanford, etc. tend to dominate. You're absolutely right though. The cream rises to the top in the NCAA tourney.
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Stephen Shirley
Joined: 18 Dec 2006 Posts: 787
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Koopster
Joined: 31 Jan 2006 Posts: 444
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