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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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 Posted: 03/26/07 3:01 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| I'm puzzled why some people are picking UNC to beat Purdue by a wide margin. The Boilers only have one double digit loss all season, by 11 AT UConn. I have a hard time seeing them lose big to anybody. |
For all the talk about the defense in the Rutgers/ASU game, both Purdue and North Carolina have better defensive stats than either of those teams. People really underestimate the Purdue defense.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:02 pm ::: |
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| hoopfan24 wrote: |
| UNC is better than UConn is one reason. |
Not by much. It was a six point game when they played in Chapel Hill. Plus, Purdue is getting them at a neutral site, not on tobacco road. I don't see a blowout here.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:03 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| hoopfan24 wrote: |
| UNC is better than UConn is one reason. |
Not by much. It was a six point game when they played in Chapel Hill. Plus, Purdue is getting them at a neutral site, not on tobacco road. I don't see a blowout here. |
Purdue is a significantly better team than they were earlier in the season, for what that's worth.
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dtsnms
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:04 pm ::: |
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| hoopfan24 wrote: |
UNC is better than UConn is one reason. |
Disagree! I've kept my mouth shut all tourney, but I've felt all along that UNC was the weakest of the four #1 seeds.
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aurabass
Joined: 15 Nov 2004
Posts: 84
Location: Knoxville
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:11 pm ::: |
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Monday = upset night
ASU v Rutgers: ASU doesn't look that good. Less athletic than Rutgers but this will be a night of upsets starting with ASU
LSU v UCONN: No way LSU should win this game but they will.
upset #2
Tuesday: = return to normal
Tennessee v Ole Miss: Form holds as does Tennessee - good game to watch.
UNC v Purdue: Purdue's run ends with one seed UNC
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RavenDog
Joined: 19 Feb 2007
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:21 pm ::: |
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Went 6-2 on Sweet Sixteen (Ole' Miss and Purdue got me)
Did anyone get them all right?
My guesses this time:
RUTGERS defense should prove to be too much, however, if January is fit to play, she will slow down Ajuvon and make it close. Carson and Prince will need to score and Ajuvon and Vaughn will need to stay out of foul trouble.
TENNESSEE because of Parker, Hornbuckle and Bobbit; plus they have seen the wild and crazed dogs going after the meat before. But I can't help but love the way Ole' Miss plays and root for them.
NORTH CAROLINA Purdue has improved a great deal and played their best game against Georgia but there might be too much team speed for Purdue this time.
UCONN Fowles has been having trouble with her free throws and UConn should have an answer for White this time around away from Baton Rouge.
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lola528
Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Posts: 218
Location: Lafayette, Indiana
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:33 pm ::: |
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| hoopfan24 wrote: |
| Michael wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| I'm puzzled why some people are picking UNC to beat Purdue by a wide margin. The Boilers only have one double digit loss all season, by 11 AT UConn. I have a hard time seeing them lose big to anybody. |
The same reason everybody picked Purdue to lose their last 4 games in 1999 in the NCAA's. We are not a high flying glamorous team, nor an east coast team. We are a bunch of fundamentally sound midwest grinders and that doesn't catch peoples eye. We were supposed to be "TOAST" when playing UNC in 99 because of their athleticism too. Not saying we will win, but Purdue fans have long ago learned to ignore the slight our team always gets from the media and most east coast fans.
Michael |
UNC is better than UConn is one reason. |
Maybe, maybe not. Purdue is playing better ball now than they were when they played UConn, too. Of course, this is the tourney, and anything can happen. I will say this--it's a helluva time to have to change your starting lineup and go back to the drawing board, but it appears Purdue will have to do that, with Jodi injured.
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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Location: New York
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:48 pm ::: |
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| aurabass wrote: |
Monday = upset night
ASU v Rutgers: ASU doesn't look that good. Less athletic than Rutgers but this will be a night of upsets starting with ASU
LSU v UCONN: No way LSU should win this game but they will.
upset #2
Tuesday: = return to normal
Tennessee v Ole Miss: Form holds as does Tennessee - good game to watch.
UNC v Purdue: Purdue's run ends with one seed UNC |
Ah, aurabass setting up UCONN. If we win, we're supposed to. If we lose, which I think we will. You will be able to start your usual UCONN bashing because we lost a game we should have won. Which will allow you to attack our SOS, and how our lack of tough games did us in. This is really a win-win for you, isn't it?
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dtsnms
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:51 pm ::: |
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| ucbart wrote: |
| aurabass wrote: |
Monday = upset night
ASU v Rutgers: ASU doesn't look that good. Less athletic than Rutgers but this will be a night of upsets starting with ASU
LSU v UCONN: No way LSU should win this game but they will.
upset #2
Tuesday: = return to normal
Tennessee v Ole Miss: Form holds as does Tennessee - good game to watch.
UNC v Purdue: Purdue's run ends with one seed UNC |
Ah, aurabass setting up UCONN. If we win, we're supposed to. If we lose, which I think we will. You will be able to start your usual UCONN bashing because we lost a game we should have won. Which will allow you to attack our SOS, and how our lack of tough games did us in. This is really a win-win for you, isn't it? |
Breath deeply bart; we'll be okay, win or lose....the sun will rise tomorrow I'll bet. And besides I already pointed out how we've only lost to elite eight teams. And we beat two of the other teams in the elite eight. Damn good schedule if you ask me.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 3:56 pm ::: |
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| dtsnms wrote: |
| the sun will rise tomorrow I'll bet. |
I'll take that bet.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:03 pm ::: |
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RU-not as close as the score indicates.
CT-as close as the score indicates.
TN- closer than last time they met but not in doubt late.
NC-close but not in doubt late.
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bballjunkee212
Joined: 07 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:19 pm ::: |
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| So do we have a consensus yet?
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:29 pm ::: |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
| For all the talk about the defense in the Rutgers/ASU game, both Purdue and North Carolina have better defensive stats than either of those teams. People really underestimate the Purdue defense. |
I wasn't entirely sure what that meant, so I thought I'd check. Here's what I found about RU, ASU, Purdue and Carolina:
RU gives up an average of 55.2 ppg, holds opponents to 36.4 percent shooting, and 30.6 percent from 3, forces an average of 17.8 turnovers per game, gets an average of 8.4 steals a game and blocks an average of 5.9 shots per game. RU did this against the 3rd toughest SOS. In the tournament, RU has held its opponents to 143 points, the third lowest 3-game total in the history of the tournament, while playing a #13, a #5 and a #1 seed.
ASU gives up an average 58.4 points per game, holds opponents to 40.2 percent shooting, 27.0 percent from 3, forces an average of 21.8 turnovers per game, gets an average of 9.7 steals per game and blocks an average of 2.6 shots per game. (All the stats except ppg omit Sunday's game because the ASU stats aren't updated yet.) ASU did this against the 46th toughest SOS. In the tournament, ASU has held its opponents to 157 points while playing a #14, a #6 and a #7 seed.
Purdue gives up an average of 53.8 ppg, holds opponents to 34.7 percent shooting, and 28.6 percent from 3, forces an average of 18.8 turnovers per game, gets an average of 10.2 steals per game and blocks an average of 5.4 shots per game. (Like ASU, Purdue stats except for ppg aren't updated for last night.) Purdue did this against the 4th toughest SOS. In the tournament, Purdue has held its opponents to 172 points, while playing a #15, a #7 and a #3 seed.
Carolina gives up an average of 54.5 points per game, holds opponents to 34.5 percent shooting, and 26.3 percent from 3, forces an average of 24 turnovers per game, gets an average of 14.41 steals per game and blocks an average of 6.8 shots per game. Carolina did this against the 18th toughest SOS. In the tournament, Carolina has held its opponents to 145 points while playing a #16, a #9 and a #5 seed.
You probably can argue the merits of who's best on various points here, but I think it's fair to say that RU has the hottest defense in the tournament right now, particularly considering the relative quality of the opponents. Other factors that aren't in the stats matter, too, like the pace teams like to play. Carolina has a lot more opportunities for steals and blocks than most teams because it plays at such a fast tempo. On the other hand, a slower pace leads to fewer points scored by both teams, regardless of the quality of your defense.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:34 pm ::: |
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| beknighted wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
| For all the talk about the defense in the Rutgers/ASU game, both Purdue and North Carolina have better defensive stats than either of those teams. People really underestimate the Purdue defense. |
I wasn't entirely sure what that meant, so I thought I'd check. Here's what I found about RU, ASU, Purdue and Carolina:
RU gives up an average of 55.2 ppg, holds opponents to 36.4 percent shooting, and 30.6 percent from 3, forces an average of 17.8 turnovers per game, gets an average of 8.4 steals a game and blocks an average of 5.9 shots per game. RU did this against the 3rd toughest SOS. In the tournament, RU has held its opponents to 143 points, the third lowest 3-game total in the history of the tournament, while playing a #13, a #5 and a #1 seed.
ASU gives up an average 58.4 points per game, holds opponents to 40.2 percent shooting, 27.0 percent from 3, forces an average of 21.8 turnovers per game, gets an average of 9.7 steals per game and blocks an average of 2.6 shots per game. (All the stats except ppg omit Sunday's game because the ASU stats aren't updated yet.) ASU did this against the 46th toughest SOS. In the tournament, ASU has held its opponents to 157 points while playing a #14, a #6 and a #7 seed.
Purdue gives up an average of 53.8 ppg, holds opponents to 34.7 percent shooting, and 28.6 percent from 3, forces an average of 18.8 turnovers per game, gets an average of 10.2 steals per game and blocks an average of 5.4 shots per game. (Like ASU, Purdue stats except for ppg aren't updated for last night.) Purdue did this against the 4th toughest SOS. In the tournament, Purdue has held its opponents to 172 points, while playing a #15, a #7 and a #3 seed.
Carolina gives up an average of 54.5 points per game, holds opponents to 34.5 percent shooting, and 26.3 percent from 3, forces an average of 24 turnovers per game, gets an average of 14.41 steals per game and blocks an average of 6.8 shots per game. Carolina did this against the 18th toughest SOS. In the tournament, Carolina has held its opponents to 145 points while playing a #16, a #9 and a #5 seed.
You probably can argue the merits of who's best on various points here, but I think it's fair to say that RU has the hottest defense in the tournament right now, particularly considering the relative quality of the opponents. Other factors that aren't in the stats matter, too, like the pace teams like to play. Carolina has a lot more opportunities for steals and blocks than most teams because it plays at such a fast tempo. On the other hand, a slower pace leads to fewer points scored by both teams, regardless of the quality of your defense. |
Mostly pointing out that North Carolina and Purdue have both allowed few points and a lower field-goal percentage than Rutgers or Arizona State. I see those as the two most important defensive stats, as much as defensive stats can be important. For all the RU/ASU talk, the defense in the other game has been virtually ignored.
Nothing more, nothing less.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:47 pm ::: |
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i'd be interested in shots/per game these teams take.
iow- seems to me, because of the way carolina pushes the pace, their points allowed/game stat is more impressive than any other team.
we all know you can control you opponent's offense by hangng onto the ball.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:49 pm ::: |
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| cthskzfn wrote: |
i'd be interested in shots/per game these teams take.
iow- seems to me, because of the way carolina pushes the pace, their points allowed/game stat is more impressive than any other team.
we all know you can control you opponent's offense by hangng onto the ball. |
Part of the reason that I am particularly drawn to shooting percentage as a defensive indicator.
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thesixthwoman
Joined: 25 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:56 pm ::: |
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Rutgers v ASU = Rutgers.
If Rutgers could shut down Duke's offense, they can certainly shut down ASU's, which has been MIA through a lot of this tourney anyway. Again, they only have to score one more point than their opponent to win. Other than the emotional tie to the Virgin Islands, I gotta pull for my Scarlet Knights here. RU to the FF?! Holy Crap! But ASU should have been the 4 seed and RU should have been the 3 anyway.
UConn v. LSU = I really don't know.
I have one bracket with UConn and one with LSU. I have one with LSU to win it all! If UConn plays up to their potential, LSU is screwed. If LSU plays their game, UConn probably loses. I'm being wishy-washy, I know, but honestly, I think this one's pretty damn tough to predict. Whichever big gets into foul trouble first -- Fowles or Charles -- I guess that could be the deciding factor.
Tenn v. Ole Miss = Tennessee
Wow. I can't wait to watch this game. I'm in love with Armintie. She is amazing. She reminds me of Swoopes - quick, lean, defense, offense...and Ole Miss has Awkward and other weapons too -- but not as many as Tennessee. Unless they can get Parker in foul trouble early and Ross has some secrets up her sleeve, I just think Tenn is deeper and will simply not accept losing.
UNC v Purdue = UNC
Gearlds & co. won't be able to keep up with Latta, Larkins, Little, Pringle, etc. Plus, Latta's shot is due to return. I can't see Gearlds putting up 30 against the Tarheels. I don't see think this will be too close. I really like Camille Little - now there's an underrated player.
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hoopfan24
Joined: 09 Oct 2006
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| Posted: 03/26/07 4:59 pm ::: |
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| good stuff Bek, but what about turnovers commited by each team? I'd be willing to bet UNC and RU have more than Purdue and ASU.
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 5:15 pm ::: |
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| hoopfan24 wrote: |
| good stuff Bek, but what about turnovers commited by each team? I'd be willing to bet UNC and RU have more than Purdue and ASU. |
Do I have to do everything?
As it happens, you'd be partly right and partly wrong:
Carolina: 19.5/g (701 total, with Latta and Little both above 120)
ASU: 17.2/g (587 total)
Purdue: 16.02/g (561 total)
RU: 14.5/g (480 total)
(As before, the ASU and Purdue totals are short one game because they don't include the weekend results, but it wouldn't affect the relative positions of the teams.)
Hatchell may not care about turnovers, but CVS does.
One thing I didn't mention before is that RU's stats may be suspect because of how differently the team played before and after the New Year.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 5:21 pm ::: |
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| beknighted wrote: |
| hoopfan24 wrote: |
| good stuff Bek, but what about turnovers commited by each team? I'd be willing to bet UNC and RU have more than Purdue and ASU. |
Do I have to do everything?
As it happens, you'd be partly right and partly wrong:
Carolina: 19.5/g (701 total, with Latta and Little both above 120)
ASU: 17.2/g (587 total)
Purdue: 16.02/g (561 total)
RU: 14.5/g (480 total)
(As before, the ASU and Purdue totals are short one game because they don't include the weekend results, but it wouldn't affect the relative positions of the teams.)
Hatchell may not care about turnovers, but CVS does.
One thing I didn't mention before is that RU's stats may be suspect because of how differently the team played before and after the New Year. |
With different teams playing different styles, there are more or less opportunities for turnovers. Simple numbers are pretty inconclusive without know how many possesions each team had. How many of their opportunities for a turnover resulted in a turnover?
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hoopfan24
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 5:30 pm ::: |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
| With different teams playing different styles, there are more or less opportunities for turnovers. Simple numbers are pretty inconclusive without know how many possesions each team had. How many of their opportunities for a turnover resulted in a turnover? |
Of course, and it cuts both ways. A team that plays at a slow pace has fewer opportunities to force turnovers. Meanwhile, a team that forces a lot of turnovers can be more effective on defense than a team that doesn't force a lot of turnovers but keeps opponents to a lower shooting percentage (and never mind the effect of rebounding). That's why defensive statistics are hard to compare.
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LakotaStorm
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
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| Posted: 03/26/07 6:16 pm ::: |
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Rutgers
LSU
UConn, but I'd like Purdue
Tenn.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/26/07 7:01 pm ::: |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
| dtsnms wrote: |
| the sun will rise tomorrow I'll bet. |
I'll take that bet. |
Well, if Dt were to write a poem about the sun rising...
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PUmatty
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