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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8235 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 12/26/22 8:14 pm ::: |
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Howee wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-womens-college-basketball-poll?week=8
South Carolina still unanimous
NC State up to #6
Michigan up to #14
Arkansas down to #24
Same 25 teams as last week |
Interesting to see that UNC made the most precipitous drop, down 7 spots from last time. The L'ville/Duke matchup oughtta be a decent game - will it be televised, given it's not ranked teams? |
On Jan. 1, doesn't show up here:
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/women-college-basketball-tv-schedule-2022-23/ |
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 12/26/22 8:43 pm ::: |
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Duke @ NCSt is on the ACC Network at 8pm on Thursday, 12/29.
Louisville @ Duke is listed by Warren Nolan as ACCNX, which denotes streaming on ESPN.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004 Posts: 7403 Location: Durham, NC
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Posted: 12/26/22 9:16 pm ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
Duke @ NCSt is on the ACC Network at 8pm on Thursday, 12/29.
Louisville @ Duke is listed by Warren Nolan as ACCNX, which denotes streaming on ESPN. |
I will be at that game!
_________________ Follow your passion and your life will be true down to your core.
~rAf
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 12/28/22 10:58 pm ::: |
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And UConn will now begin its inevitable rise up the rankings and the seedings as it cakewalks over its conference and faces only one potential remaining loss while everyone else faces the most challenging parts of their schedules.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5424
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009 Posts: 1817 Location: Missouri
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012 Posts: 4053
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Conway Gamecock
Joined: 23 Jan 2015 Posts: 1900 Location: Here
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 12/29/22 2:29 pm ::: |
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Well all of you did a fine job of racing off on some tangent unrelated to my post or point, but none of you identified or explained anything I said with which you disagree.
Do you disagree that UConn realistically has only one potential loss on its entire remaining schedule?
Do you disagree that all of the teams above UConn today face more potential losses? Indeed in many cases some of them have to lose. (Somebody has to lose in IU vs OhSt, ND vs NCSt, VT vs NCSt, plus IU and OhSt each must play a MD team that already beat UConn as well as ND)?
Do you disagree that UConn will inevitably rise up the rankings as it cakewalks over BE teams while teams above it today inevitably lose to serious conference opponents? Indeed, UConn would rise if it just sat home and watched other teams lose a game or two.
Nobody is questioning UConn's current ranking or schedule prior to today. Based on their performance and SOS, they are #8 as of last Monday. (And they're 2-2 against their serious highly ranked opponents - not bad but not awe-inspiring or SCar-like). That's already built in to my post which was only about the reality going forward from today. But the reality is that their performance to date is considered as meriting #8, not # 4 or 3 or 2, just 8.
And just as they only have one serious risk of losing, they only have one serious opportunity to improve on that 2-2 against top teams (and are more likely to end up 2-3), while teams above them have multiple opportunities to win and risk to lose, vs genuine top opponents. So if they don't beat SCar, what is it that warrants being higher than the 8 they already are now based on all of that Nov-Dec schedule on which you're relying?
UConn is considered #8 today based on all they have done until now. Yet without really accomplishing anything for the rest of the season, they will almost certainly move up. Simply because the teams considered deserving of higher rankings today play each other and other challenging opponents, and somebody has to lose. UConn is considered #8 today, and won't have done anything to deserve a higher ranking. They'll just back into it by default.
I guess I should have expected that when confronted with the obvious reality, the last resort would be Massey's voodoo (the master of self-promotional mathematical complexity as a substitute for meaning). How his black box nonsense has anything to do with how the polls and the selection committee will deal with the reality I've laid out escapes me..
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32340
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Posted: 12/29/22 3:13 pm ::: |
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totally subjective eyeball test, UConn at full strength (minus Bueckers who is out for the year) is IMO probably #2 or #3. I actually think they could beat SoCaro. The weird thing is just that its been a long time since we've seen them at full strength. I can understand how difficult that makes it for the pollsters.
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009 Posts: 1817 Location: Missouri
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Posted: 12/29/22 5:24 pm ::: |
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singinerd54 wrote: |
ArtBest23 wrote: |
And UConn will now begin its inevitable rise up the rankings and the seedings as it cakewalks over its conference and faces only one potential remaining loss while everyone else faces the most challenging parts of their schedules. |
Where do you think UConn should be ranked/seeded now, and what do you think their cap should be for each?
Should it matter, UConn is currently 2nd in Massey ratings and 4th in NET (where LSU is 2nd ), with the current most challenging schedule in the country and projected to be 3rd most challenging schedule in the country at season's end (according to Massey). |
They will rise in the rankings if they win games while other teams lose games - that is how rankings work in all sports. Their schedule is front loaded while other teams have schedules that are back loaded. If you care about schedules being front loaded or back loaded, that's your prerogative, but to me, playing the 3rd toughest schedule in the country is playing the 3rd toughest schedule in the country.
ArtBest23 wrote: |
So if they don't beat SCar, what is it that warrants being higher than the 8 they already are now based on all of that Nov-Dec schedule on which you're relying?
UConn is considered #8 today based on all they have done until now. Yet without really accomplishing anything for the rest of the season, they will almost certainly move up. Simply because the teams considered deserving of higher rankings today play each other and other challenging opponents, and somebody has to lose. UConn is considered #8 today, and won't have done anything to deserve a higher ranking. They'll just back into it by default. |
I take this to mean your point is they should essentially be grandfathered into #8 (assuming winning out except for South Carolina), but correct me if I'm wrong. I don't bring that kind of "fixed mindset" to rankings; teams and players are fluid and (hopefully) improving throughout the season. There's too many games to be played for me to be so rigidly decisive.
To me, UConn right now deserves a 2 seed and should be ranked in the 6-8 range. If they only lose to South Carolina the rest of the way out, I think they should be a 1 or 2 seed (depending on what other teams do).
Conway Gamecock wrote: |
singinerd54 wrote: |
Should it matter, UConn is currently 2nd in Massey ratings and 4th in NET (where LSU is 2nd ), with the current most challenging schedule in the country and projected to be 3rd most challenging schedule in the country at season's end (according to Massey) |
It's impressive how one can boast/tout - AND mock/deride - a certain online rating all in the same breath, at the same time...... |
I included them as objective measures. The pollsters and Charlie Creme and Art and I are all subjective; these metrics, as flawed as they are, are objective. You're correct that I don't care for NET having LSU at 2; I don't think LSU is the second best team (nor do I think UConn is better than Stanford, if you want a critique of Massey). I still think these metrics have some utility in evaluating teams and like it or not, are used in the committee's evaluation (NET, I believe). You and Art are more than welcome to find some objective measures if you like.
I have similar feelings to myrtle; based on my eye test thus far, UConn at (this year's) full strength is the third best team in the country.
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009 Posts: 1817 Location: Missouri
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 12/29/22 8:42 pm ::: |
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Va Tech got upset on the road tonight too, and ND nearly joined them.
All of Massey's "I'm a math professor, trust me" bullshit formulas ignore the reality that there is a HUUUUUUGE difference, as manifested tonight, between playing in a P5 conference and playing in a mid major. To start, the talent differences are immense. The reality as shown every year is that in the big conferences elite teams can lose, especially on the road, to just about any conference foe, or certainly at least the top half, in the the ACC, Big10, PAC, and SEC.
So no, I don't buy that just racking up wins against overmatched opponents counts any more in the spring than it should count for LSU in the fall, and gaudy W-L records against cupcakes shouldn't be enough by itself to rise to the top. Massey admits he ignores conferences and in vs out of conf play, and just relies on wins, losses and point margins. So his voodoo will always inflate the standing of a team like UConn beating up its conference weak sisters by 30 pt margins. And penalize P5 teams playing close games and losing a couple of them.
There are good reasons the BCS dropped his projections 10 years ago after a brief experiment and the selection committees ignore him. And there are good reasons UConn WBB fans adore him.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67013 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 12/29/22 8:53 pm ::: |
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The conference difference is more pronounced in the women's game than the men's. Massey's formula was developed for the men's game, so it's not surprising it is less accurate for the women.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004 Posts: 7403 Location: Durham, NC
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Posted: 12/29/22 10:20 pm ::: |
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Gonna be a shake up in the T10, with #4 (Indiana), #6 (NC State) and #7 (Va Tech) all going down. Also losing #13 North Carolina. #5 Notre Dame barely got by unranked Miami, but they won, so expect them to be the new #4.
With tonight's win over #6 NC State, expect Duke to enter the T25, after lingering just outside for several weeks.
_________________ Follow your passion and your life will be true down to your core.
~rAf
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009 Posts: 1817 Location: Missouri
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Posted: 12/30/22 11:16 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
The conference difference is more pronounced in the women's game than the men's. Massey's formula was developed for the men's game, so it's not surprising it is less accurate for the women. |
So what's the best metric for the women's game?
ArtBest23 wrote: |
So no, I don't buy that just racking up wins against overmatched opponents counts any more in the spring than it should count for LSU in the fall, and gaudy W-L records against cupcakes shouldn't be enough by itself to rise to the top. Massey admits he ignores conferences and in vs out of conf play, and just relies on wins, losses and point margins. So his voodoo will always inflate the standing of a team like UConn beating up its conference weak sisters by 30 pt margins. And penalize P5 teams playing close games and losing a couple of them.
There are good reasons the BCS dropped his projections 10 years ago after a brief experiment and the selection committees ignore him. And there are good reasons UConn WBB fans adore him. |
1) Which objective metric (e.g., NET) would you prefer, if any?
2) Where would you rank and seed UConn today?
3) How do you think about ranking/seeding at the end of the year? Should UConn and LSU "top out" at a particular seed (maybe a 2 or a 3), for example?
4) What/whose strength of schedule metric do you prefer, or do you not care about strength of schedule?
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 12/30/22 2:12 pm ::: |
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You yourself have acknowledged that UConn has already played its tough games (except 1) while other teams have yet to play theirs. (You wrote "Their schedule is front loaded while other teams have schedules that are back loaded.") So if you believe SOS is important ( as we evidently both do) why in the world should UConn's ranking rise while their SOS tanks? The opposite should be true. What's happened 'till now is already built into the current rankings. If SOS matters, then as the teams around UConn play the most difficult parts of their schedules while UConn plays patsies, logic dictates that those other teams should rise relative to UConn and UConn should drop. "But they played X in November" doesn't help; that's already built into their #8, which is the starting point for my post. What happened before can't excuse what happens going forward.
Also "mathematical" does not equal "objective," and it certainly doesn't mean meaningful. Massey is just a bunch of formulas that make Massey money but produce no meaningful information. The RPI is pure math too and is universally accepted as producing phony conclusions. So does Massey. Just as no one uses the RPI any more, no one uses Massey, because both produce an "answer" which has no meaning or connection to the reality they purport to represent.
You confuse precision with validity. If you carry a random or meaningless number out to 15 significant digits, it doesn't give it any more meaning than it started with, it simply makes it a more precise random or meaningless number.
By the way, LSU is the polar opposite of UConn. UConn is the poster child for front loaded, while LSU is the ultimate inverse. I don't understand why you continue to lump them together.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1275
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Posted: 12/30/22 4:16 pm ::: |
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> Do you disagree that UConn realistically has only one potential loss on its entire remaining schedule?
As with many online disagreements, disagreements sometimes go away if care is taken defining terms. Arguably every unplayed game can be viewed as a potential loss, but it seems likely you mean something stronger than theoretically possible. Willing to specify a probability of loss for a specific game which would constitute a "realistic potential loss".
> Do you disagree that all of the teams above UConn today face more potential losses?
Yes, I disagree.
> How his black box nonsense has anything to do with how the polls and the selection committee will deal with the reality I've laid out escapes me.
I believe you. I'll give you credit for recognizing that Massey data conflicts with your thesis, and it may be smart to try to take it off the table. But simply declaring that it "escapes" you does not constitute proof it is wrong.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1275
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Posted: 12/30/22 4:28 pm ::: |
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> So if you believe SOS is important ( as we evidently both do) why in the world should UConn's ranking rise while their SOS tanks?
Can you explain what you mean by "tanks"?
The SOS of UConn's remaining schedule is ranked number three in the nation
The strength of schedule of the seven teams currently ahead of UConn is as follows:
South Carolina 6
Stanford 5
Ohio State 8
Indiana 18
Notre Dame 12
NC State 2
Virginia Tech 17
This means that UConn's remaining strength of schedule is stronger than six of the seven teams ahead of them. I wonder if can you characterize this as tanking
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8235 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 12/30/22 5:23 pm ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
totally subjective eyeball test, UConn at full strength (minus Bueckers who is out for the year) is IMO probably #2 or #3. |
Retinally, I might agree with this as to offense. However, by many key defensive statistics—OPG, OFG%, OPP—this is one of the worst defensive UConn teams in 30 years. Some of those defensive stats are affected to some degree by the early strong OOC schedule, of course, but most are still probably worse than when UConn played in the Old and Mighty Big East.
I don't think UConn's defense improves by a quantum leap when and just because Fudd returns. The defensive statistics will get better during conference play, but by how much I can't predict.
I suspect UConn will eventually earn a 2 or 1 seed for the Dance and make it to the E8, but after that I don't have any solid feeling especially because of the defense as it currently appears. |
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009 Posts: 1817 Location: Missouri
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Posted: 12/30/22 5:43 pm ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
So if you believe SOS is important (as we evidently both do) why in the world should UConn's ranking rise while their SOS tanks? |
Because their SOS doesn't tank, at least according to Massey. I'm happy to use another or a better metric for SOS than Massey's, but I'm waiting for you, pilight, or others to provide one.
ArtBest23 wrote: |
The opposite should be true. What's happened 'till now is already built into the current rankings. If SOS matters, then as the teams around UConn play the most difficult parts of their schedules while UConn plays patsies, logic dictates that those other teams should rise relative to UConn and UConn should drop. "But they played X in November" doesn't help; that's already built into their #8, which is the starting point for my post. What happened before can't excuse what happens going forward. |
The flaws I see in this logic were exposed, at least somewhat, last night. Should Indiana, Virginia Tech, and NC State still be ranked ahead of UConn after their losses to unranked/mediocre teams?
For the record, I do think that a strong week can have teams leap frog others when both teams are winning. If Indiana, for example, beats Iowa, Ohio St, and Michigan while UConn is beating Marquette, Georgetown, and Creighton between 2/9 and 2/16, I don't have a problem with Indiana jumping UConn (assuming UConn is not too far ahead of Indiana in the polls). It is of course a different question to consider whether the pollsters would do this.
ArtBest23 wrote: |
Also "mathematical" does not equal "objective," and it certainly doesn't mean meaningful. Massey is just a bunch of formulas that make Massey money but produce no meaningful information. The RPI is pure math too and is universally accepted as producing phony conclusions. So does Massey. Just as no one uses the RPI any more, no one uses Massey, because both produce an "answer" which has no meaning or connection to the reality they purport to represent. |
You touch on many valid critiques of quantitative methods. You have earlier in this thread (particularly pages 1 and 2) provided valid critiques of the pollsters and how they handle rankings. What, if any, information do you trust or think should be used in determining seeding?
Perhaps relatedly, what is your opinion of NET?
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15753 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009 Posts: 1817 Location: Missouri
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Posted: 12/30/22 6:12 pm ::: |
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Phil wrote: |
The SOS of UConn's remaining schedule is ranked number three in the nation. The strength of schedule of the seven teams currently ahead of UConn is as follows:
South Carolina 6
Stanford 5
Ohio State 8
Indiana 18
Notre Dame 12
NC State 2
Virginia Tech 17
This means that UConn's remaining strength of schedule is stronger than six of the seven teams ahead of them. I wonder if can you characterize this as tanking |
Minor correction: These strengths of schedules are for the whole season, not just the remaining games. When you click on the Key on massey's page, it says "SSF: Strength of Schedule - including future games"
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 12/30/22 7:48 pm ::: |
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Phil wrote: |
> Do you disagree that all of the teams above UConn today face more potential losses?
Yes, I disagree.
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Really???? Seriously?????
Pick the team you think faces more potential losses than UConn. Or is it that you believe UConn is seriously at risk of losing more than one? To who?
But if that's actually what you believe, that UConn is going to lose two or more, we can stop now because if that happens any thought of UConn finishing higher than its current #8 is a total fantasy.
Oh, and it's not just me who thinks Massey is a joke. Nobody that matters pays any attention to the Massey ratings. Specifically, the selection committee.
Indeed, I've been laughing that the ONLY thing the UConn fans keep chanting as "support" for their position is MASSEY, MASSEY, MASSEY, MASSEY. Which I guess isn't surprising when reality, logic, and common sense are all against them. But if you expect any further response from me, you're going to have to come up with something other than "MASSEY!!!!".
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1275
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Posted: 12/30/22 8:06 pm ::: |
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singinerd54 wrote: |
Minor correction: These strengths of schedules are for the whole season, not just the remaining games. When you click on the Key on Massey's page, it says "SSF: Strength of Schedule - including future games" |
Thanks for that correction. I don't think it fundamentally changes my point. An SOS going from 1 to 3 for the entire season, when more than half the season remains, implies a sold remainder of the season SOS.
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