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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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Location: Durham, NC
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 Posted: 07/30/22 7:11 am ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| johnjohnW wrote: |
| I'm relieved by this news but find it odd we would publicize the offer if it hasn't actually been worked out or accepted. |
Call me the cynic about government action on this point, but I suspect the only reason the Biden administration is publicizing this proposal now is because of political and electoral fears about a potential red wave election in three short months.
Because of the known opposition to this deal within the administration by the DOJ, and the likely opposition to a Victor Bout deal by the non-political professionals within the intelligence and military services, who caught Bout in a dangerous overseas sting operation, I'm even doubtful the deal would have been offered at all, other than because of the current and palpable Democrat fears of losing the Senate, House and state houses in November.
If there ever was a chance of this case being treated purely as a minor drug possession case with no political pressure on the judge, that possibility is likely now gone because of the Blinken publication of this proposed deal. If the judge is otherwise disposed, on the legal merits, to dismiss the case for time served, or to give Griner some other light sentence for possessing a teaspoon of hash oil, that will likely not now happen. Because, now that Biden is begging for Griner back, she will lose all bargaining value to Russia if she gets off with a light sentence in the trial.
Biden should have waited until after Griner's sentencing, which is expected in August, before offering a prisoner swap, which technically can't happen until Griner is a convicted prisoner anyway. That would have allowed the legal trial to play out to a possible, if unlikely, minor sentence. However, Biden couldn't wait for that commonsense process because his decision-making is dominated by partisan domestic politics.
This will work out well for Griner only if a prisoner swap deal is in fact accepted by Russia and completed fairly quickly. Otherwise, she has lost her opportunity for for a light trial sentence and may also languish in prison for years if prisoner swap negotiations drag on and on through government bureaucracies. |
Typical right wing muckety muck to disparage this administration bringing home US ciizens wrongfully detained (hostages) in Russian custody.
I suggest refraining from couching this in American political terms. As is stated by those with more knowledge, we know less than 2% of all that is going into the negotionations for BG's release. I highly encourage those ignorant of the full extent of negotiations to save political diatribes for the morons who watch Fox News - the perfect target for ignorant "information." and attempts to leverage the situation for political gain.
Especiallly here in the thread set up to support BG, introducing partisan politics into the discussion is highly inappropriate.
We want BG home and the current Biden administration is the only people who can negotiate with the Russians who took her hostage. It is not the time or place. I recall Ronald Reagan who ACTIVELY interfered with Carter working to bring US citizens home for his own political gain. The Americans who were retained as hostages for months while Reagan worked for his own gain and glory will not forget those extra months of harsh treatment they endured. I have no doubt that Republicans are similarly working behind the scenes to find a way to gain glory for themselves over the eventual release of hostages, using propaganda statements as laid out here.
I repeat: those who want BG home sooner will refrain from posting partisan propaganda pieces planted by Republicans who seek the glory. And best believe, the Republicans would also give the Russians the worst criminals the US has captured to bring Americans home, just as Reagan did.
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ChiSky54
Joined: 19 Jun 2019
Posts: 667
Location: Chicago
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| Posted: 07/30/22 10:03 am ::: |
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| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| I suggest refraining from couching this in American political terms. As is stated by those with more knowledge, we know less than 2% of all that is going into the negotiations for BG's release. |
I believe this, in part, is why the Area 51 thread was created.
It's frustrating - and hurtful - to see what this thread has devolved into being. Sure, we have our political and other viewpoints about this and everything else in life, and that is our right. But can't we have civil discussions without getting divisive and resorting to personal attacks?
The unnecessary vitriol just reminds me once again why so many people had stopped posting on RebKell's prior to my three-year tenure and many more since. Clearly there are lots of lurkers when you look at views, but folks don't want to get attacked for sharing opinions. Sometimes it's downright scary around here, and with so much negativity everywhere, it's often hard to just ignore it. It takes its toll...
The majority of us here want her home, and I believe that the W's efforts have shined a light on others who have been detained for awhile. What we say here has absolutely no bearing in the greater scheme of things, but we can pray/send positive energy/think positive thought and share our desires with the powers that be to continue applying pressure to bring her home and provide whatever mental health support she needs once she's back.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 07/30/22 5:32 pm ::: |
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| ChiSky54 wrote: |
| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| I suggest refraining from couching this in American political terms. As is stated by those with more knowledge, we know less than 2% of all that is going into the negotiations for BG's release. |
I believe this, in part, is why the Area 51 thread was created.
It's frustrating - and hurtful - to see what this thread has devolved into being. Sure, we have our political and other viewpoints about this and everything else in life, and that is our right. But can't we have civil discussions without getting divisive and resorting to personal attacks?
The unnecessary vitriol just reminds me once again why so many people had stopped posting on RebKell's prior to my three-year tenure and many more since. Clearly there are lots of lurkers when you look at views, but folks don't want to get attacked for sharing opinions. Sometimes it's downright scary around here, and with so much negativity everywhere, it's often hard to just ignore it. It takes its toll...
The majority of us here want her home, and I believe that the W's efforts have shined a light on others who have been detained for awhile. What we say here has absolutely no bearing in the greater scheme of things, but we can pray/send positive energy/think positive thought and share our desires with the powers that be to continue applying pressure to bring her home and provide whatever mental health support she needs once she's back. |
So, I want to be clear here. You're OK with people with a political agenda sharing their misinformation here but not Ok when they get called out for it? To me, the sharing of politically biased misinformation that sounds like it's based on something sound is pretty darn negative and does not belong here. At all. That right wing crap full of lies does not belong on Area 51 either, but misinformation is allowed to go unchallenged, no matter how damaging it is to real people - such as the pure lies posted early about Covid. People who followed the Trumpster crap instead of the actual science died by the thousands. And, yeah, there are people here (& everywhere else) who will believe whatever the snake oil salesman is selling.
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threadkiller1201
Joined: 19 Sep 2005
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| Posted: 07/30/22 5:36 pm ::: |
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https://sports.yahoo.com/blinken-lavrov-have-frank-conversation-about-proposed-brittney-griner-prisoner-swap-230544699.html
“Experts who spoke to Yahoo Sports on Thursday are skeptical that a deal exchanging Bout for Griner and Whelan is imminent. Dartmouth University foreign policy fellow Danielle Gilbert contends that the U.S. wouldn’t have publicly revealed its offer if it thought Russia was poised to accept.
“My hunch is that this is not going to be the final deal,” Gilbert said. "The fact that the administration is announcing they put this on the table and the Russians didn't agree to it makes it feel like we're a few steps away from this being completed.""
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 07/30/22 7:56 pm ::: |
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| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| johnjohnW wrote: |
| I'm relieved by this news but find it odd we would publicize the offer if it hasn't actually been worked out or accepted. |
Call me the cynic about government action on this point, but I suspect the only reason the Biden administration is publicizing this proposal now is because of political and electoral fears about a potential red wave election in three short months. |
Typical right wing muckety muck to disparage this administration bringing home US ciizens wrongfully detained (hostages) in Russian custody. |
rAf, while it's difficult to take seriously your ad hominem rhetoric and frequent personal insults, I suggest you read more carefully.
I'm not criticizing the effort to bring Griner home; I'm in favor of that. I'm criticizing the manner in which Biden is proceeding because I believe that manner is hurting Griner's chances of being released quickly via trial or prisoner swap.
Specifically in my above-quoted post, I was responding to johnjohnW's puzzlement as why the Biden administration would publicize an unresponded-to swap offer now—i.e., the timing. My opinion is that the publicity timing was primarily done to shore up Biden's historically low poll numbers and to help the Democrat chances in the mid-term elections, asap. I frankly think that's an obvious conclusion as well as a non-partisan one.
It's also obvious to anyone who reads reliable news reports that Biden's publicizing of the unilateral offer has pissed off the Russians. In the Russian read-out of the Blinken-Lavrov phone call, which I translated in a post above and which one can also read in the NY Times, Lavrov "strongly suggested" that the U.S. engage in "quiet diplomacy," not the public release of "speculative information."
Consistent with that, CNN has posted video of Lavrov saying that Biden and Putin agreed more than a year ago at the Geneva meeting that prisoner swaps would be transacted by professional organizations within each country and that his Foreign Ministry was not that organization.
In the same vein, ESPN, among others, has reported that:
| Quote: |
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov replied that prisoner swaps were typically negotiated discreetly behind the scenes.
"We know that such issues are discussed without any such release of information," Peskov told reporters during a conference call. "Normally, the public learns about it when the agreements are already implemented." |
Therefore, from all available reliable reporting, it's blindingly obvious that Biden's repeated public announcements (and leaking) of his "substantial offer" has pissed off Russia. It's also blindingly obvious that trying to get Griner released from Russia via a prisoner swap process that pisses off Russia is the wrong process. Biden deserves to be criticized for this by those of us interested in an effective process to get Griner released.
I also criticize Biden for even making the offer to Russia before the trial was concluded and a sentence levied, which should happen within the next three weeks, so that the prisoner swap publicity doesn't affect the trial judge's possible decision to levy a light sentence. This, too, can hurt Griner's chances for a quick release because a long sentence for Griner substantially weakens Biden's negotiating position. I'd really like to hear the substantive argument to the contrary if one exists. |
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Bob Lamm
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
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| Posted: 07/30/22 8:29 pm ::: |
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| Glenn's endless long posts are so far from reality--so "blindingly" far from reality--that a point-by-point refutation would take an hour. Not worth my hour or anyone else's. His "reliable" sources (ESPN???) are anything but. Glenn takes the Russian criminal justice system at face value. He takes public statements from Lavrov at face value. Etc. etc. All nonsense.
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johnjohnW
Joined: 11 Aug 2020
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| Posted: 07/30/22 9:04 pm ::: |
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| threadkiller1201 wrote: |
https://sports.yahoo.com/blinken-lavrov-have-frank-conversation-about-proposed-brittney-griner-prisoner-swap-230544699.html
“Experts who spoke to Yahoo Sports on Thursday are skeptical that a deal exchanging Bout for Griner and Whelan is imminent. Dartmouth University foreign policy fellow Danielle Gilbert contends that the U.S. wouldn’t have publicly revealed its offer if it thought Russia was poised to accept.
“My hunch is that this is not going to be the final deal,” Gilbert said. "The fact that the administration is announcing they put this on the table and the Russians didn't agree to it makes it feel like we're a few steps away from this being completed."" |
That was my fear. I hope they continue to work on a deal.
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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| Posted: 07/30/22 10:02 pm ::: |
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If people in here could chill that would be great.
Also a reminder that there's a whole section of the forum - Area 51 - where bickering over politics is right at home.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 07/30/22 10:06 pm ::: |
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| Bob Lamm wrote: |
| Glenn's endless long posts are so far from reality--so "blindingly" far from reality.... All nonsense. |
Truth be told, there's a TON of 'nonsense' floating throughout this thread, and it ain't all Glenn. Frankly - and in all fairness to him - Glenn's legal background lends more credibility to his theories than those of most.
Media - ALL media, the very best included - can manipulate 'reality'. Yet, what else do any of us have to inform us? We'd do well to take all accounts or theories with a grain of salt, and muster positive vibes for those most affected, i.e., Brit & Co.
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Bob Lamm
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
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| Posted: 07/30/22 10:22 pm ::: |
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| Howee wrote: |
Truth be told, there's a TON of 'nonsense' floating throughout this thread, and it ain't all Glenn. Frankly - and in all fairness to him - Glenn's legal background lends more credibility to his theories than those of most.
Media - ALL media, the very best included - can manipulate 'reality'. Yet, what else do any of us have to inform us? We'd do well to take all accounts or theories with a grain of salt, and muster positive vibes for those most affected, i.e., Brit & Co. |
Is it a shock that the person here with (apparently) the deepest legal background again and again takes at face value the criminal justice system OF A DICTATORSHIP? Too many attorneys in the U.S. can't face the endless, agonizing injustices of OUR legal system. Indeed, six of them currently sit on the U.S. Supreme Court.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: 07/30/22 11:57 pm ::: |
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| Quote: |
| Is it a shock that the person here with (apparently) the deepest legal background again and again takes at face value the criminal justice system OF A DICTATORSHIP? Too many attorneys in the U.S. can't face the endless, agonizing injustices of OUR legal system. Indeed, six of them currently sit on the U.S. Supreme Court. |
In proclaiming someone to be innocent, there are two things involved.
1) Some reason to believe the person charged would never commit the crime.
2) Some reason to believe the people charging are making a false charge.
No one here who is sure of her innocence can provide (1) since they don't know her, and I haven't seen any WNBA players who have played with her stating that she never takes drugs of any kind. With regard to (2), Griner has been playing in Russia since 2014. If we make an assumption that they charged Griner because of the invasion of Ukraine that was going to take place 7 days later, then something is missing. That is Russia saying we will give you back Griner if you remove such and such sanction. Or exchange her for such and such Russian prisoner in Ukraine. If Russia isn't asking for anything war related then there is no good link between Griner being charged - for the first time in 8 years of playing in Russia - because of an impending invasion.
The people who are upset about the USA legal system are victims. Attorneys are paid to claim injustice for their clients. Criminals will claim innocence unless caught red handed. While victims are unhappy at the leniency
of sentencing , failure to prosecute and failure to convict. And we didn't hear "defund the legal system" a few years ago.
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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| Posted: 07/31/22 8:50 am ::: |
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| Luuuc wrote: |
If people in here could chill that would be great.
Also a reminder that there's a whole section of the forum - Area 51 - where bickering over politics is right at home. |
One other thing. Please stay on topic.
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undersized_post
Joined: 01 Mar 2021
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| Posted: 07/31/22 9:45 am ::: |
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| Motion to unpin this dumpster fire of a thread. It was done with good intentions but I for one feel it has run its course.
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willtalk
Joined: 13 Apr 2012
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| Posted: 07/31/22 12:03 pm ::: |
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| There is nothing like remarks by fans on sport related isues to assure that all reason and rational are abandoned.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 07/31/22 2:14 pm ::: |
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| Bob Lamm wrote: |
| Glenn's endless long posts are so far from reality--so "blindingly" far from reality--that a point-by-point refutation would take an hour. Not worth my hour or anyone else's. His "reliable" sources (ESPN???) are anything but. Glenn takes the Russian criminal justice system at face value. He takes public statements from Lavrov at face value. Etc. etc. All nonsense. |
Thank you Bob for stating the obvious.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007
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| Posted: 07/31/22 6:08 pm ::: |
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My two cents, I’m skeptical that Biden’s primary purpose, political or otherwise, are the upcoming elections.
There’s a segment of the right that very much dislikes Brittney Griner. As such, releasing this information is only going to be inflammatory to that group anyway. And otherwise most other people want her home regardless of politics. If anything, I’d think releasing this info would do more harm than good to the left’s election chances.
As for the public release of info bothering Russia, as Bob said, I would not take any of their posturing at face value. They’ll do what serves them.
As far as waiting till after sentencing to release the info, I see Glenn’s point to an extent, but to my knowledge BG had below the limit (0.7 grams) of hash oil for her act to be considered a criminal offense even according to Russian law. I could be mistaken about that. But if that info is accurate, then Russia is demonstrating a lack of adherence to its own law here anyway. BG’s sentencing wouldn’t likely change that.
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Bob Lamm
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
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Location: New York City
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| Posted: 07/31/22 9:59 pm ::: |
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| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| Bob Lamm wrote: |
| Glenn's endless long posts are so far from reality--so "blindingly" far from reality--that a point-by-point refutation would take an hour. Not worth my hour or anyone else's. His "reliable" sources (ESPN???) are anything but. Glenn takes the Russian criminal justice system at face value. He takes public statements from Lavrov at face value. Etc. etc. All nonsense. |
Thank you Bob for stating the obvious. |
I sent you a private message on Saturday. Please take a look whenever. No rush.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 08/01/22 1:47 pm ::: |
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| Bob Lamm wrote: |
| readyAIMfire53 wrote: |
| Bob Lamm wrote: |
| Glenn's endless long posts are so far from reality--so "blindingly" far from reality--that a point-by-point refutation would take an hour. Not worth my hour or anyone else's. His "reliable" sources (ESPN???) are anything but. Glenn takes the Russian criminal justice system at face value. He takes public statements from Lavrov at face value. Etc. etc. All nonsense. |
Thank you Bob for stating the obvious. |
I sent you a private message on Saturday. Please take a look whenever. No rush. |
Received and replied! Thank you. The Russian "legal system" is as big of a farce as pre Civil Rights reforms in US South "legal systems." Outcomes pre-ordained by those in power and the actual words said in court (or media) having little to no meaning. Any debate of BG possessing anything illegal in Russian law is like debating what Emmett Till did or didn't do. He was guilty of being a young black man being in the presence of a white woman in the US south, just as BG is guilty of being a black lesbian, which is illegal in Russia. Did Emmett smile, smirk or even whistle? IRRELEVANT.
The fact that the Russian government is also killing large number of civilians at this point in time is the only relevant factor in how they handle continuing to hold BG hostage.
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johnjohnW
Joined: 11 Aug 2020
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| Posted: 08/01/22 2:10 pm ::: |
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You: The Russian legal system is a farce!
Also you: debating the validity of the accusations is irrelevant!!
Not saying I disagree with you, but that's some pretty wild cognitive dissonance.
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Bob Lamm
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Posts: 5065
Location: New York City
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| Posted: 08/01/22 2:23 pm ::: |
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| johnjohnW wrote: |
You: The Russian legal system is a farce!
Also you: debating the validity of the accusations is irrelevant!!
Not saying I disagree with you, but that's some pretty wild cognitive dissonance. |
I don't think I'm meant to be YOU here, but I'll answer anyway. I have stated numerous times that in my view that the respect that some here show to the Russian legal and criminal justice system is ridiculous. Russia is a DICTATORSHIP. Is it that hard to grasp what that means?
As for "debating the validity of the accusations," it certainly would help if you weren't so vague. I for one have no clue as to what you're saying here. What accusations? By whom? Please be clear. Thanks.
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readyAIMfire53
Joined: 20 Nov 2004
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Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: 08/01/22 2:59 pm ::: |
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| johnjohnW wrote: |
You: The Russian legal system is a farce!
Also you: debating the validity of the accusations is irrelevant!!
Not saying I disagree with you, but that's some pretty wild cognitive dissonance. |
If you think this all the way through, you'll easily see there is no cognitive dissonance here. When the entire system is a farce, with every part (from kidnap to outcome) controlled by one maniac, the accusations have no correlation to the predetermined outcome.
Putin has no interest in "PR." He sees himself as the rightful ruler of planet earth and his only desire is to be feared by everyone on the planet because that shows his power. What BG says is scripted by him. Any variation from Putin's script equals no freedom ever.
You might benefit from reviewing the career of Stalin, the person Putin emulates. The belief in the supremacy of Imperial Russia is absolute. Every person falls into one of three categories 1) obedient citizen, 2) disobedient possession or 3) enemy. When he is feared by all three categories, he's won. Right now, the lack of fear shown by Ukraine (disobedient possession of Imperial Russia) leads to Putin demanding fear from all enemies. BG embodies his definition of enemy with her very existence (US/western, black, gay). The fact he can make her bend her head while in a cage is visual proof (to him) that he is all powerful. Stalin also used visuals to "prove" his supremacy.
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johnjohnW
Joined: 11 Aug 2020
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| Posted: 08/01/22 3:13 pm ::: |
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I'm going to go ahead and bow out of this conversation.
I want BG home. That's all that matters to me.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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Location: Heisenberg
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| Posted: 08/01/22 5:23 pm ::: |
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ABC News: Why the proposed prisoner swap may not quickly free detainees in Russia: Analysis
In the above article, a former Defense and State Department official comments on the likely reason for and effect of Biden's unprecedented publicity of an unconsummated prisoner swap deal, which is consistent with my interpretations:
| Quote: |
And while Moscow might say Bout is a high priority, former Defense and State Department official and ABC News contributor Col. Steve Ganyard says in reality, he isn't.
"He is not a spy who caused major damage to U.S. national security," Ganyard said. "They get more mileage out of poking a finger in the United States' eye, and more importantly, making the White House look desperate."
Publicity push?
The very revelation that the administration offered Moscow a deal may speak best to that desperation.
"A sensitive negotiation isn't made public before it's done if it's going well," said Ganyard. "Publicizing the offer is a way of deflecting U.S. domestic pressure, but it's actually hurting the White House negotiating position by admitting frustration and a weak hand." |
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Switching back to the trial, Griner is due in court tomorrow. If Griner's lawyers finish their defense case then, it's even possible that sentencing could be levied immediately, but I obviously can't predict that.
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| NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
| As far as waiting till after sentencing to release the info, I see Glenn’s point to an extent, but to my knowledge BG had below the limit (0.7 grams) of hash oil for her act to be considered a criminal offense even according to Russian law. I could be mistaken about that. |
NYL_WNBA_FAN, to summarize what I have reconstructed from available translations and scholarly commentaries on the Russian Criminal Code (which may not be fully up to date), possession of any amount of hash oil is illegal. However, the jail penalties for hash oil possession fall into three tiers:
• up to 0.4 grams → up to 15 days
• 0.4+ grams to 5.0 grams → up to three years
• over 5.0 grams → up to 10 years.
Because there has been consistent reporting that Griner was caught with 0.702 grams, that is why I say the maximum jail sentence should be the middle tier three years (not 10 years). There are also fines that can be levied as an alternative to jail sentences in the middle tier. |
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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| Posted: 08/01/22 7:30 pm ::: |
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| I appreciate what you're doing here GlennMacGrady, even with the number of people yelling at you about it. Even if the whole thing is essentially a scam, or corrupt, or a frame job, or redundant because Putin could step in and do what he wants with her, there's still value in looking at it from the legal perspective. They haven't just chucked her in a cell and thrown away the key. This isn't some third-world country making shit up as they go along. However many horrible things are going on in Russia, and however much we may disagree with some of their laws, they do appear to have stipulated laws. They have a legal system that's trying her. Could it all be bullshit? Absolutely. There's still value in trying to understand what they're doing to her within their own rules and how this could play out if they stick to them. It's also a perspective that I've seen very little of anywhere else (because most people have, somewhat understandably, heard the "wrongfully detained" designation and stopped caring about any of the legal processes). So yeah, thanks. |
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 08/01/22 9:14 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| Because there has been consistent reporting that Griner was caught with 0.702 grams, that is why I say the maximum jail sentence should be the middle tier three years (not 10 years). |
I should repeat a caveat to this.
Two weeks ago, I learned from the Griner case docket at the Khimki City Court—now blocked by the Russian government for "security reasons" (because of me?)—that Griner was also was initially charged under a second Russian criminal smuggling law that could impose up to a 20 year jail sentence. This is the law under which Marc Fogel was sentenced to 14 years for smuggling 8 grams of hash oil and 11 grams of cannabis buds.
I don't see how the reported Griner facts would trigger that more severe smuggling statute, but folks are right to say that much of everything in Russia is layered in murk. |
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