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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 07/29/10 11:21 am ::: How old is the WNBA? |
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More specifically, how old are the players? Are they older or younger than players in past seasons? Is there a trend? Let's take a look!
First, we need a standard of how old a player is in a given season. I decided to use their age as of 1 July, midway through the year. Next, criteria. I counted three areas for each season: mean age of players, median age of players, and percentage of players who are under 30. Results...
Code: |
Year mean age median age % under 30
1997 26.51 25.5 74.2
1998 26.31 26 75.6
1999 26.64 25 75.3
2000 26.07 25 81.4
2001 26.09 25 80.2
2002 26.22 25 78.9
2003 26.68 26 79.1
2004 26.13 25 81.7
2005 26.10 25 80.3
2006 25.98 25 79.7
2007 26.15 25 79.7
2008 26.08 25 81.3
2009 26.49 26 78.0
2010* 26.50 26 80.4 |
* season incomplete, numbers could change
I'm somewhat surprised that the mean age has remained so stable. The high (in 2003) and the low (in 2006) are just 0.7 different. The median has been even more unchanging, sitting at 25 or 26 every year.
You can see the effect of the great expansion of 2000, as the mean age dropped and percentage of players under 30 jumped. By the time teams started folding (after 2002) many of the older, original players were done. That's why the percent of under 30s has remained higher than it was the first few years and why the jump in mean age in 2003 washed out almost immediately.
You can also see the effect of the 11 player roster. Mean and median ages have jumped as teams are less able to keep an extra rookie or developmental player. In fact, the only years (besides 1997) when the league has been older than it is now were 2003, when two teams folded, and 1999, when there was an influx of players from the recently folded ABL. Both those events squeezed out younger players, much like the shorter roster is doing now.
EDITED to correct 1997 for a dumb circular reference in my spreadsheet.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
Last edited by pilight on 07/29/10 12:51 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Bretter
Joined: 31 May 2009 Posts: 1502 Location: Paradise
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BGfangirl
Joined: 19 May 2010 Posts: 577
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Posted: 07/29/10 11:45 am ::: |
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Holy smokes did you actually go though hundreds of players ages and add them/ divide them, go through them to find which age is in the middle etc? How did you do that and how long did it take?
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 07/29/10 11:50 am ::: |
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BGfangirl wrote: |
Holy smokes did you actually go though hundreds of players ages and add them/ divide them, go through them to find which age is in the middle etc? How did you do that and how long did it take? |
Yes.
It didn't take that long. I already had the seasonal ages databased. Spreadsheets are wonderful things.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11205
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Posted: 07/29/10 12:34 pm ::: |
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What's interesting to me is that the average age doesn't change much over time. It tells me that the physical and mental combination that results in a WNBA player is pretty much a constant. You have to be young enough to be quick and fast, but old enough to be smart and strong.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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StevenHW
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 10983 Location: Sacramento, California
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Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
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Posted: 07/29/10 12:40 pm ::: |
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And of course we have the statistical outlier - Nancy Lieberman - who played one whole game so she could be "the oldest player to play in the WNBA." Sorry, Nancy, but in my mind it is Taj McWilliams-Franklin.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 07/29/10 12:53 pm ::: |
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Nerd2 wrote: |
And of course we have the statistical outlier - Nancy Lieberman - who played one whole game so she could be "the oldest player to play in the WNBA." Sorry, Nancy, but in my mind it is Taj McWilliams-Franklin. |
There have been a couple of other players who were older than Taj is now when they played.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
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Posted: 07/29/10 12:59 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Nerd2 wrote: |
And of course we have the statistical outlier - Nancy Lieberman - who played one whole game so she could be "the oldest player to play in the WNBA." Sorry, Nancy, but in my mind it is Taj McWilliams-Franklin. |
There have been a couple of other players who were older than Taj is now when they played. |
Cool, I did not know that. Teresa Edwards is clearly one, who were others? And were they starters?
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StevenHW
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 10983 Location: Sacramento, California
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Posted: 07/29/10 1:02 pm ::: |
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Nerd2 wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Nerd2 wrote: |
And of course we have the statistical outlier - Nancy Lieberman - who played one whole game so she could be "the oldest player to play in the WNBA." Sorry, Nancy, but in my mind it is Taj McWilliams-Franklin. |
There have been a couple of other players who were older than Taj is now when they played. |
Cool, I did not know that. Teresa Edwards is clearly one, who were others? And were they starters? |
How old was Wanda Guyton when she last played in the WNBA? Maybe not quite 40, but she's gotta be fairly close. And there's Sheryl Swoopes and Yo Griffith, in response to Pilight's post.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 07/29/10 1:29 pm ::: |
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Nerd2 wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Nerd2 wrote: |
And of course we have the statistical outlier - Nancy Lieberman - who played one whole game so she could be "the oldest player to play in the WNBA." Sorry, Nancy, but in my mind it is Taj McWilliams-Franklin. |
There have been a couple of other players who were older than Taj is now when they played. |
Cool, I did not know that. Teresa Edwards is clearly one, who were others? And were they starters? |
The answer was a popular Trivia Time quiz a while back...
http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=57431
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16379 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 07/29/10 2:50 pm ::: |
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Are you factoring in the number of games played by a player, or does every player who played at least in one game count the same? I would imagine that this would effect the results - the players added in one-week contracts, etc., tend to be younger, which would skew the results younger.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 07/29/10 3:02 pm ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
Are you factoring in the number of games played by a player, or does every player who played at least in one game count the same? I would imagine that this would effect the results - the players added in one-week contracts, etc., tend to be younger, which would skew the results younger. |
I counted every player the same. A weighted average would probably be older and even more stable.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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ChasingRatDogmaSalade
Joined: 05 Apr 2008 Posts: 596 Location: Las Vegas, NV
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Posted: 07/29/10 8:28 pm ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
Are you factoring in the number of games played by a player, or does every player who played at least in one game count the same? |
I used to weigh based on minutes played.
From an old Full Court Press column ...
Age is only a number.
You know who says that? Old people.
But age, and the experience that comes with it, have proven to be valuable commodities over the years in the WNBA.
At the beginning of each season, the WNBA sends out some biological statistical information on each team, or at least they used to. I cant remember if I have seen it the past few years. This information included the average height, weight, and age of each team. When figuring the average age of each team, all they do (or did) was add up the ages of each player on the roster and divide by the number of players on the roster.
This makes sense, of course. That is the definition of average after all. However, from an analysis standpoint I prefer to determine the age of a team in a different manner. The reason being that each players contribution to the team is not necessarily equal to that of the other players on the team. Why should the 34-year-old who only plays five minutes a game off the bench carry as much weight as the 27-year-old who logs 32 minutes each night?
She shouldnt, which is why I prefer to determine a teams age by weighing each players age by the minutes they played in a given year.
From this point forward, when I refer to a teams age or the leagues age I am referring to my version of the term.
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ChasingRatDogmaSalade
Joined: 05 Apr 2008 Posts: 596 Location: Las Vegas, NV
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Posted: 07/29/10 8:28 pm ::: |
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The Success of Old vs. Young
So how do younger teams do vs. older teams?
It would appear that the older teams have the edge. The average age over the course of the league is 27.3. The average age of championship teams during that same time is 27.9. The average age of playoff teams is also 27.9 and the average age of teams with winning records is 28.0.
That might not seem like much, but lets look at it another way. Of the 70 teams that have made the postseason in the past 10 years, 60 percent have been older than average. Of the 65 teams that have posted winning records since the WNBAs debut, 67.2 percent have been older than average. The difference hasnt been quite as large over the past several years since the Comets stopped winning their championships, but it still exists in 2006, six of eight playoff teams were above the league age average.
Championship teams, however, have been slightly below the league average over the past four seasons: The Detroit Shock, at 24.2 years, were the youngest WNBA title winner in history. The following year, the Seattle Storm (28.3) were just under the league average of 28.4. The Sacramento Monarchs, at 27.9, were under the league average of 28.6, and in 2006 the Shock were right at the league average of 27.9.
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ChasingRatDogmaSalade
Joined: 05 Apr 2008 Posts: 596 Location: Las Vegas, NV
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ChasingRatDogmaSalade
Joined: 05 Apr 2008 Posts: 596 Location: Las Vegas, NV
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Posted: 07/29/10 8:30 pm ::: |
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Below is the information from each WNBA season. W = a winning record; P = a playoff team; C = a championship team.
THESE COLUMNS WON'T WORK HERE
1997
Team Age W P C
Houston 28.8 w p c
Cleveland 28.1 w
Phoenix 28.0 w p
Sacramento 27.7
New York 27.6 w p
Charlotte 27.1 w p
Los Angeles 25.6
Utah 25.4
Average 27.3
1998
Team Age W P C
Houston 29.1 w p c
New York 28.5 w
Detroit 28.0 w
Cleveland 28.0 w p
Phoenix 27.5 w p
Los Angeles 26.8
Charlotte 26.5 w p
Utah 25.6
Sacramento 25.1
Washington 25.0
Average 27.0
1999
Team Age W P C
Houston 29.7 w p c
New York 29.3 w p
Phoenix 29.2
Charlotte 28.3 p
Utah 28.1
Cleveland 27.2
Detroit 27.1 p
Minnesota 27.1
Sacramento 26.3 w p
Orlando 25.8
Los Angeles 24.9 w p
Washington 24.9
Average 27.3
2000
Team Age W P C
Houston 29.6 w p c
New York 28.4 w p
Phoenix 28.3 w p
Charlotte 27.5
Sacramento 27.2 w p
Utah 27.0 w
Seattle 26.6
Miami 26.6
Washington 26.3 p
Orlando 26.1 p
Cleveland 26.0 w p
Detroit 25.7
Portland 25.6
Indiana 24.8
Los Angeles 24.8 w p
Minnesota 24.2
Average 26.5
2001
Team Age W P C
New York 29.3 w p
Utah 28.2 w p
Houston 28.1 w p
Miami 27.8 w p
Charlotte 27.7 w p
Phoenix 27.6
Washington 27.3
Sacramento 27.0 w p
Los Angeles 26.3 w p c
Detroit 26.2
Portland 26.1
Seattle 25.6
Orlando 25.6
Indiana 25.2
Cleveland 25.1 w p
Minnesota 24.3
Average 26.7
2002
Team Age W P C
Utah 29.0 w p
Houston 28.7 w p
Sacramento 28.7
New York 28.3 w p
Charlotte 28.0 w p
Miami 27.6
Los Angeles 27.1 w p c
Orlando 26.5
Washington 26.2 w p
Indiana 26.0 p
Phoenix 26.0
Portland 25.6
Cleveland 25.4
Seattle 24.5 w p
Detroit 24.2
Minnesota 24.0
Average 26.6
2003
Team Age W P C
New York 29.9
Houston 29.2 w p
Sacramento 28.7 w p
Charlotte 28.7 w p
San Antonio 28.4
Los Angeles 28.1 w p
Connecticut 27.9 w p
Minnesota 27.3 w p
Indiana 26.9
Seattle 26.6 w
Washington 25.4
Cleveland 25.2 p
Phoenix 25.1
Detroit 24.2 w p c
Average 27.3
2004
Team 2004 W P C
Charlotte 30.8
Sacramento 30.3 w p
New York 29.8 w p
Los Angeles 29.5 w p
Houston 29.1
San Antonio 29.0
Connecticut 28.7 w p
Seattle 28.3 w p c
Minnesota 27.6 w p
Indiana 27.4
Washington 26.9 p
Detroit 26.3 p
Phoenix 25.5
Average 28.4
2005
Team 2005 W P C
Houston 32.0 w p
New York 30.2 w p
Charlotte 30.0
Indiana 29.3 w p
Washington 28.9
Connecticut 28.6 w p
Los Angeles 28.5 p
San Antonio 28.1
Sacramento 27.9 w p c
Minnesota 27.3
Detroit 27.2 p
Phoenix 26.8
Seattle 26.5 w p
Average 28.6
2006
Team Age W P C
Houston 31.9 w p
Washington 29.7 w p
Sacramento 28.9 w p
Connecticut 28.6 w p
Indiana 28.5 w p
Los Angeles 28.2 w p
Detroit 27.9 w p c
Charlotte 27.4
San Antonio 27.4
Phoenix 27.2
Seattle 27.0 w p
New York 26.7
Chicago 25.7
Minnesota 25.4
Average 27.9
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 07/29/10 8:37 pm ::: |
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ChasingRatDogmaSalade wrote: |
At the beginning of each season, the WNBA sends out some biological statistical information on each team, or at least they used to. I cant remember if I have seen it the past few years. |
They used to send out a lot of things they don't send out anymore.
I was planning to work on weighted averages this weekend. It will take a little more work than the straight numbers.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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ChasingRatDogmaSalade
Joined: 05 Apr 2008 Posts: 596 Location: Las Vegas, NV
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Posted: 07/29/10 8:45 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
ChasingRatDogmaSalade wrote: |
At the beginning of each season, the WNBA sends out some biological statistical information on each team, or at least they used to. I cant remember if I have seen it the past few years. |
They used to send out a lot of things they don't send out anymore.
I was planning to work on weighted averages this weekend. It will take a little more work than the straight numbers. |
Shoot me your email addy. I have XL sheets through 2007 I believe.
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TDAO
Joined: 11 Jun 2005 Posts: 555
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Posted: 07/30/10 2:11 pm ::: |
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I can do weighted averages pretty easy. Let me look at that this afternoon.
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TDAO
Joined: 11 Jun 2005 Posts: 555
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67096 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 08/24/10 2:24 pm ::: |
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I did weighted averages for all the seasons. Got slightly different results, probably because I used ages as of 1 July instead of September. The pattern holds fairly well, however...
Code: |
Year mean age median age weighted average % under 30
1997 26.51 25.5 27.22 74.2
1998 26.31 26 26.91 75.6
1999 26.64 25 27.29 75.3
2000 26.07 25 26.51 81.4
2001 26.09 25 26.77 80.2
2002 26.22 25 26.74 78.9
2003 26.68 26 27.21 79.1
2004 26.13 25 26.75 81.7
2005 26.10 25 26.99 80.3
2006 25.98 25 26.51 79.7
2007 26.15 25 26.68 79.7
2008 26.08 25 26.85 81.3
2009 26.49 26 27.07 78.0
2010 26.50 26 27.32 80.6 |
This season has the highest weighted average age in league history. That's the effect of the 11 player roster, thin drafts the last few years, and the injury prone-ness of the of 2008 class. The difference between the highest and lowest is 0.81 years, a little under 10 months, and has been extremely stable.
_________________ I'm sick and tired of the stories that you always tell
Shakespeare couldn't tell a story that well
See, you're the largest liar that was ever created
You and Pinocchio are probably related
Full of criss-crossed fits, you lie all the time
Your tongue should be embarrassed, you're a threat to mankind
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FS02
Joined: 19 Jul 2006 Posts: 9699 Location: Husky (west coast) Country
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Posted: 08/24/10 2:51 pm ::: |
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I'm guessing the 11 player roster made it harder for young players to make it, but the lowered salary cap squeezed out some vets and so the net effect was zero.
The recent drafts might seem weaker than they really are because of the stiffer competition.
_________________ @dtmears2
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8261 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 08/24/10 2:57 pm ::: |
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Interesting, but the league stats divorced from any correlations don't seem significant to me in a subjective sense and, I suspect, in any statistical sense.
When correlated with specific teams and then championships, for example, it gets more interesting.
What would we expect to see if we correlated age with a performance stat such as scoring or rebounding -- a slope, a bell curve, ???
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