RebKell's Junkie Boards

[njjosh]

So it's here. The two heavy favorites made it. So did two unlikely teams.

Both Stanford and UConn (obviously!) should win their semifinal games. But I wonder if Stanford's great escape against Xavier was just an abberation, or did Xavier expose some weaknesses? If it was the latter, can Oklahoma take advantage of them. Oklahoma doesn't have Xavier's size, but they are pretty quick. The Sooners will have to hope their guards shoot close to the way they did tonight and that Olajuwon can at least hold her own inside.

The Griner-Charles matchup will get lots of hype this week. But Charles has a big edge in experience and should win that matchup in the end. And even if you put that aside, Baylor will have no answer for Maya Moore and UConn's guards (who does?). Griner will have to have the game of her life, even better than what she did against Tennessee, for Baylor to have a chance.

[TheWildJacko]

[TheWildJacko]

Some other factors for Stanford:

- Appel's minutes. The two games in which Appel fouled out of the game this season were Stanford's two closest wins of the season--at UCLA and against Xavier. She played 30 minutes against UCLA, but only 18 against Xavier. Can she stay in the game? 30 minutes may seem like a good amount in the UCLA game, but in that game Nneka also had 4 fouls and played only 22 minutes. So, fairly obvious, but Stanford needs its stars on the floor.

- Ros. Who will she guard? Robinson? Stevenson? Can she shut down her defensive assignment? Katie Rutan went scoreless against Stanford, and Ros was a big part of that--including her huge block of Rutan's 3 with 5 minutes left. If Ros can take either one of OU's primary ball-handlers out of her offense, OU will struggle.

- Stanford's outside shooters. One game, red hot--they can't miss. The next, back to normal, maybe a little worse. The one after that? Ice cold. Will they shoot lights out, just OK, or really poorly? It largely depends on whether they're able to move around and get into their spacing, which could be tough against the quick OU guards.

- Amanda Thompson. Sometimes, her mid-range jumper looks sweet as strawberries. Other times, she can't hit the broad side of the barn and the Sooners just keep giving her the ball to chuck up and miss. Will Thompson hit her shots or go cold? Will Sherri Coale be on her coaching game and make adjustments if the latter occurs?

- Can OU turn Stanford over? OU really tore Kentucky apart by forcing turnovers and scoring wide open layups in transition (either dribbling up the court or with outlet passes. Sometimes that's easier to do against a team that's always looking to push tempo like the Wildcats. Stanford tends to play more in control, but they are likely a step slower than OU at the guard position (although Jeanette "Tyrus Edney" Pohlen would beg to differ). Also, Stanford has been known to make a lazy pass or three if they're not thinking clearly. If OU can pick off some passes, they will have a big boost against the Cardinal. If not, they better hope Stanford misses their shots. Otherwise, the Trees will likely advance.

[pilight]

Oklahoma vs Stanford

I've picked against the Sooners in each of the last three rounds, why would I change now? No reason I can think of. Jayne Appel isn't going to be limited to 18 minutes, like she was against Xavier, and the Card size will be too much for Oklahoma to handle. More fundamentally, Stanford wants a crack at UConn on a neutral floor and they're not going to let the Sooners get in their way.


Baylor vs Connecticut

I know what you want. You want me to tell you that Griner can dominate the paint and the rest of the Bears can ugly the game up enough to keep it close so she can win it for them at the end. Not happening. Baylor may make it a game for a while, but Maya Moore is unstoppable. We're going to get the finals matchup everyone wanted and expected from Day One.

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[32-lefty]

I agree with pilight. Stanford is too big for OU, plays under control, and will be able to handle the speed. I think it will be a close game, but Stanford will pull it out.

As for the other game, I like that ESPN is getting all on board with this Griner vs. UConn thing, they have to hype something. Unfortunately, you know Geno is in Charles' ear motivating her to destroy Griner. I liked his response after the game when Lobo asked him about the challenge of preparing for Griner. He laughed, then gave a textbook response. I took the laugh as " are kidding, you think she's going to get in our way!" I predict Griner will be on the bench with two fouls before the first tv timeout, and won't be a factor in the game. I actually hope I'm wrong on that. But I have a hard time seeing otherwise. UConn wins easily. Again.

[justynkarr]

As an OU fan I obviously want them to win. But I really like and respect this Stanford team. They are a very strong team with an extremely strong group of players underneath the basket. And while many may argue Oklahoma doesn't have the talen that Stanford does, you cannot deny that the Sooners have more heart. The way they are playing lately, and really played all year, is really just a joy to watch. They all want this to never end, to never have to say goodbye to their seniors, to never break this team up. And that is what has propelled them to somewhere no one really thought they could get. So I would have to say that that drive and determination will help them out against Stanford even if it doesn't result in a win. I think this team is a true testament to what this OU program is, and they are here to stay. They may not get the best recruits every year and may not have the superstars but they have the heart. They have, in my opinion, one of the greatest coaches in the country. They recruit well and build a strong team bond that helps them to achieve the greatest they can. So no matter what the outcome in the final four, I just have to say that I am extremely proud of the way this OU team has played this year.

[Chip]

One Prediction:Griner dunks on Charles

[TheWildJacko]

[bballfan2005]

I don't think that Gold-Onwude can guard Robinson and might not have much success slowing down Stevenson, so she'll have to get the job done offensively if Stanford is to advance.

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[coffy73]

Okay, I'm gonna go with Oklahoma over Stanford, cause I just love D-Rob and Thompson! Plus they were really impressive against Kentucky and Stanford was so uninspired and just blah against Xavier. Griner might be amazing, but the rest of those Baylor girls are terrible offensively, they were just standing around against Duke and waiting for her to score points! UConn's super tough defense can easily take care of them, while Maya can keep being the scoring machine she is.

[mekanos]

The Stanford-Xavier game was the most oddly ref'd game of the tournament. Expecting Stanford to return to form.

Looking to see if Baylor via Griner can put Uconn under any stress.

Baylor is the only new team in the final 4 this year.

[RavenDog]

A lot can depend on the officiating. There was a wide variance among the various games. In some games, a player had to take another players head off, bring blood or cause broken bones to get a foul called. In others, touch and bogus fouls were called. Official calls determine all close games one way or the other.

Should Tina Charles foul out of a game, McClaren can't make it up and down the floor in less than 3 minutes. She looks like she's getting bigger and slower each game. The other UConn secondary post players are less than remarkable. Losing Maya to fouls would definitely put UConn at risk.

Hope they let them play.........

[snichols]

Except for the Stanford-Xavier game, I think the officiating has been pretty reasonable this year, and I didn't think the officiating in Stanford-Xavier was one-sided, it was just off. The officiating forced a different style of play than the rest of the tournament. It was especially jarring after having watched the Baylor-Duke game immediately prior.

Assuming the officiating doesn't keep all the post players on the bench, I go with Stanford over Oklahoma and UConn over Baylor.

And is there something in the air about the 1-3-1? I don't remember seeing it that much lately, but suddenly in the tournament, it seems like it's popping up everywhere, both men's and women's. Believe it or not, I actually commented to my husband before the tournament that I thought Stanford ought to dust off the 1-3-1 they used to run occasionally back in the day and put Ogwumike at the point!

[bridgehere]

Baylor does not beat Uconn. No way. I would like to see it as a Big 12 fan, but Uconn is just too good. They will make adjustments for Griner.

OU will beat Stanford. They will find a way as a team to do it. Amanda is the one that is going to have to be taking the shots and I am perfectly happy with that. As a rule, she is money with her short range jumper. Ny will be covered, Abi will be covered, so it will be D-Rob and Amanda who will need to score. Hopefully, they will get some help with some transition baskets and back door cuts, maybe some put backs and free throws. Jasmine may be able to get a couple of threes or twos if she is not guarded closely. OU will definitely have to work around the size issue. We have done it before.

Finally, as much as Amanda does to get the rebounds, I am surprised she has the legs to shoot at all. She usually does.

Oh, Ny dribbling the ball and shooting is new, except of course on steals. So, if she can and does continue to do this, then she could be a big factor in the scoring.

If my prediction is wrong, it will still be a great game to watch. I so wish I could talk someone into going down to San Antonio with me. I wouldn't enjoy going alone, that's an experience you need to share. Hope everyone here who gets to go has a blast.

[bballjunkee212]

Okay, I have been totally out of the loop this season-- and I figured if I was gonna be out of the loop, this was the season to do it, because UConn seems like a foregone conclusion.

So: What's the possibility/likelihood of another UConn/OU final? Will UConn win that game by 30, or will Geno keep it close so Sherri can save face?

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[njjosh]

[ScottS]

[PUmatty]

[stats47]

If Griner has 30 points and 10 blocks, Jones, Madden, and Condrey knock down three-pointers, and every Baylor player does what she needs to do, then Baylor stands a chance. Griner needs to do her best to neutralize Charles, and the other Bears need to get out and challenge perimeter shots. Baylor needs to play a near-perfect game, but they can beat Connecticut. But Baylor needs to keep the score at 65 or below if they want to win.

The Stanford-Oklahoma game could be close, but for some reason I doubt it. I'm thinking the Xavier game was just a detour, and the Cardinal will return to blowing away the competition.

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[calbearman76]