RebKell's Junkie Boards

[beknighted]

As promised, here’s an update to last week’s post.

First, here’s the list of automatic bids decided so far:

ACC – Duke
America East - Vermont
Atlantic 10 – Xavier
Atlantic Sun – East Tennessee State
Big East – Connecticut
Big Sky - Portland State
Big Ten – Ohio State
Big West – UC Riverside
Conference USA – Tulane
Ivy – Princeton
Metro Atlantic – Marist
Mid-American – Bowling Green
Mid-Eastern – Hampton
Mountain West – San Diego State
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay
Patriot – Lehigh
SEC – Tennessee
Southern – Chattanooga
Southland – Lamar
SWAC – Southern
Summit – South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Middle Tennessee
West Coast – Gonzaga
WAC - Louisiana Tech (welcome back!)

That’s 24, leaving the following conference champions to be decided:

Big 12
Big South*
Colonial
Horizon*
Missouri Valley
Northeast*
Pac-10

That’s 7 more, for 31 total. The conferences with asterisks were on my previous list of one-bid conferences, and nothing has changed.

Last time I also identified teams from the major conference plus the A-10 with RPIs of 35 or better and that had at least .500 records in conference. Historically, teams that meet those standards always make the tournament. That list, modified to eliminate the teams that have won automatic bids (since they won’t be at large entries), is as follows:

ACC: Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech, NC State
A-10: Temple
Big XII: Nebraska, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas
Big East: West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, St. John’s, DePaul, Rutgers
Big Ten: Michigan State, Wisconsin
Pac-10: Stanford, UCLA
SEC: Kentucky, Georgia, LSU, Vanderbilt

Temple was not on this list last week, but now is at RPI 34. No teams dropped off the list.

Last week I wrote that Rutgers might test the top 35/major conference/winning conference record rule. With two wins in the Big East tournament, including over Georgetown, it looks to me like the Scarlet Knights are safe.

There are 26 teams on this list, but you should subtract 2 to account for the likely winners in the Big XII and the Pac-10 (and we know for sure that the Big XII winner will come from this list). So, 31 plus 24 equals 55, leaving 9 at large spots for other teams.

Here’s last week’s list of teams that are in the RPI top 75 but not slotted into the tournament or eliminated for other reasons yet, adjusted for tournament results:

27. Hartford
34. Fresno St
36. Southern California
37. James Madison*
38. Dayton
39. North Carolina
42. TCU
44. Iowa
46. Maryland
49. Illinois St
50. Mississippi St
52. Old Dominion*
53. Boston College
56. California
57. UA Little Rock
69. St. Bonaventure

Teams that still haven’t finished playing in their conference tournaments are indicated with asterisks.

Bowling Green, Gonzaga, Marist, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Tulane, San Diego State and Vermont are off the list because they won their conference tournaments and are in the NCAAs. Temple and North Carolina State are off the list because they have moved into the RPI top 35. Also, either Old Dominion or James Madison will come off the list as a conference winner.

Then there’s the bad way to get off the list. Texas Tech and Kansas were on the list last week, but after losing in the first round of the Big XII tournament, they don’t look like they have any chance to get into the tournament thanks to the combination of a losing conference record and an RPI below 50. Michigan dropped out of the top 50 with its loss in the Big Ten tournament, and also had a losing conference record, so the Wolverines are gone, too. Meanwhile, I’m not entirely sure why I included Providence last week, but they’re in the same situation as Texas Tech and Kansas, except with a much worse RPI, so they’re gone, too. I’m also dropping Arizona State, which lost in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney and now has an RPI in the 60s and 3 sub-RPI 100 losses. SMU drops out because the Mustangs now have an RPI of 68, outside the range where you’d expect a non-major to get a bid, especially after losing in the first round of the C-USA tournament. In case you’re wondering, I kept BC because of how they did in the ACC tournament.

Unlike most years, no teams were added to the list, either by dropping off the top 35/major conference-A-10 list or by improving their situations.

That leaves us with 16 teams for 9 slots. This looks like much better odds than the last two years – 23 teams for 8 slots last season and 33 teams for 12 slots in 2008, but I’m doing the analysis later than usual, and there’s only one automatic bid left for teams in this group. That means that there are 15 teams for 9 at large bids, or about a 60% chance, which is pretty normal. Breaking things down the same way as last week, here are the teams with a good chance, the teams with some chance and the teams looking for help from above. In each group, the teams are listed in current RPI order.

Picking their dancing shoes

27. Hartford
36. Southern California
38. Dayton
44. Iowa


NC State and Michigan were on this list last week and left – NC State because they moved into the list of teams with RPIs in the top 35, etc. and Michigan because of the loss in the Big Ten tourney (and, in retrospect, I probably shouldn’t have had them on this list in the first place).

I added Iowa based on their performance in the Big Ten tournament. I know a lot of bracketologists have James Madison in regardless of the CAA result, but they have 4 sub-RPI 100 losses. I think they’re in, but I don’t think it’s nearly certain. I also thought about adding Fresno State to the list, but they have the opposite problem – no really good wins.

If all of these teams were to get in as at large entries, that would leave five slots for everyone else.

May well dance

34. Fresno St
37. James Madison
39. North Carolina
42. TCU
50. Mississippi St
53. Boston College

There’s a pretty good chance that James Madison will win the CAA (although it’s nowhere near certain) and therefore come off this list, but as noted above I think they’re in even with a loss.

I don’t think all of the remaining at large slots will go to this list, but I believe that most of them will. Call it three or four, which will leave one or two slots for the next list.

Hoping not to be wallflowers

46. Maryland
49. Illinois St
52. Old Dominion
56. California
57. UA Little Rock
69. St. Bonaventure

I moved Maryland down to this list in large part because of BC. If Carolina doesn’t get in, though, I think Maryland’s chances improve. (Yeah, I know the committee says it doesn’t think about teams in terms of their conferences, but it does have a lot of comparison points within conferences, including conference tournament results.)

Looking at this list, I’m having a hard time picking a team I think ought to be in the tournament. Cal and Maryland look to me to be the best of the bunch, but I don’t say that with any great enthusiasm. The truth is that each team in this group has at least one flaw that in previous years might have disqualified it from consideration. This year, every team seems flawed (except one), so they don’t look quite as bad.

[pilight]

UNC has more riding on today's post tournament game with UNCC than they probably expected when they scheduled it. If they lose, they're cooked in terms of making the tournament. No team in the last 10 years (at least) has gotten in going 2-8 over their last 10, which is where the Heels would be with a loss today. A win makes them 3-7 over the last 10, a record that has been good enough on rare occasions.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[beknighted]

I'm trying to think of the last major conference team that scheduled a game like that, but none come to mind.

[umbeta1455]

Pilight your post confused me at first until I looked at the schedule. Why would UNC play this type of game after the tournament is over. I'm not used to any team playing this type of game after their conference tourney? I am confused, why is this happening?

[pilight]

[beknighted]

[calbearman76]

I understand your position on Michigan, but taking them completely off from being likely in on the basis of 1 loss seems incredibly harsh. Michigan and BC are very similar, except that BC has two more losses. BC is 3-9 on the road vs. Michigan 7-8. Michigan and BC both have three sub-100 losses, but BC is 3-4 vs. 51-100 and Michigan is 8-2. Some of this is due to the natural bias for the ACC and against the Big 10 due to the number of conference games played. Moving Northwestern up to the top 100 from 101 would mean that Michigan's record vs. 51-100 would be 9-4 and the record vs the teams 101-200 would be 4-1. BC does have the better record vs. the top 50, 8-8 vs. 3-8. These two teams should be in the same category.

Otherwise I agree with your analysis. I have more affinity for UALR and would move them up one category, but either way they are definitely on the bubble.

[pilight]

You may recall that Carolina struggled mightily with SoDak last year, rallying from 15 down to win 74-69. UNCC is about as bad as SoDak was a year ago, but UNC is nowhere near as good as they were then. It could be an interesting game.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[beknighted]

[FS02]

Looks like Austin Peay got in with a losing record, but they're not even the highest RPI:

St. Francis 162
UC Riverside 164
Austin Peay 176
Portland State 184
Southern 186

[njjosh]

I'm not entirely sure Hartford gets in now. If Beverly hadn't gotten hurt, I'd agree that they'd still be in good shape (although losing a championship game at home to a team you beat twice already wouldn't look good). But her being injured could give the selection committee reason to believe Hartford won't perform as well in the tournament as another at-large candidate, especially one from a major conference.

Hartford may still get in, albeit as a much lower seed than they otherwise would have gotten. But I don't think it's a lock by any stretch.

[beknighted]

[beknighted]

[TheWildJacko]

OK, here's an RPI question for the ones in the know (not me):

Stanford and TN have the same RPI (down to four decimal places) on collegerpi.com. Yet TN is listed ahead of Stanford. I'm assuming if you go farther down the decimal line, TN comes out ahead, but if it's that close, and TN has an extra loss, including one to Stanford, which team is considered higher on the S-Curve?

[beknighted]