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seaspell
Joined: 25 Sep 2004
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mabell3368
Joined: 06 May 2006
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Location: Dallas
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 Posted: 03/11/08 10:54 pm ::: |
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| Wow. Strong stuff. Maybe all those close losses and losses that shouldn't have been (yes, I'm talkin' Tennessee) have finally taken the heart out of these scrappy warriors.
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bballjunkee212
Joined: 07 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/08 7:55 am ::: |
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Or maybe they are college kids and it was the end of a long, hard season, and the losses didn't really affect their post-season position. I would still consider RU as a final four pick, and maybe the hungriest team at the Dance.
Still-- if it takes just 60 points to beat you, maybe you ought not give up 60 points.
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njjosh
Joined: 07 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/08 9:19 am ::: |
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| bballjunkee212 wrote: |
| Or maybe they are college kids and it was the end of a long, hard season, and the losses didn't really affect their post-season position. I would still consider RU as a final four pick, and maybe the hungriest team at the Dance. |
Depends very much on their seed and bracket placement, and the resulting matchups. If they get placed in Tennessee's or Connecticut's bracket, they're not getting past the Elite 8. This doesn't look like the same team (either physically or emotionally) that beat Connecticut and should have beaten Tennessee earlier in the season.
But if they are in a bracket with Virginia or Oklahoma or other teams that have had very good regular seasons but (due to suspect defense, ball-handling, coaching or other flaws) are vulnerable, they certainly can get to Tampa. And if they get there, maybe by that point they've regained the confidence and momentum necessary to overcome their physical shortcomings and beat Tennessee and/or Connecticut to win it all.
| Quote: |
| Still-- if it takes just 60 points to beat you, maybe you ought not give up 60 points. |
That is a very big problem. Whatever the reason for the low point totals, when a normal scoring night is in the high 50s or low 60s, you're probably not going to be blowing a lot of teams, even lesser ones, out. That leaves you more vulnerable to an underdog staying in range, getting hot late and pulling off an upset.
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004
Posts: 11050
Location: Lost in D.C.
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| Posted: 03/12/08 11:51 am ::: |
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| njjosh wrote: |
| bballjunkee212 wrote: |
| Or maybe they are college kids and it was the end of a long, hard season, and the losses didn't really affect their post-season position. I would still consider RU as a final four pick, and maybe the hungriest team at the Dance. |
Depends very much on their seed and bracket placement, and the resulting matchups. If they get placed in Tennessee's or Connecticut's bracket, they're not getting past the Elite 8. This doesn't look like the same team (either physically or emotionally) that beat Connecticut and should have beaten Tennessee earlier in the season.
But if they are in a bracket with Virginia or Oklahoma or other teams that have had very good regular seasons but (due to suspect defense, ball-handling, coaching or other flaws) are vulnerable, they certainly can get to Tampa. And if they get there, maybe by that point they've regained the confidence and momentum necessary to overcome their physical shortcomings and beat Tennessee and/or Connecticut to win it all.
| Quote: |
| Still-- if it takes just 60 points to beat you, maybe you ought not give up 60 points. |
That is a very big problem. Whatever the reason for the low point totals, when a normal scoring night is in the high 50s or low 60s, you're probably not going to be blowing a lot of teams, even lesser ones, out. That leaves you more vulnerable to an underdog staying in range, getting hot late and pulling off an upset. |
If they're in a bracket with Virginia or Oklahoma as the #1 seed, I'll be pretty darned happy. 
Seriously, I think they'll be okay in the first two rounds. It's not like Louisville was, oh, Ohio State or Wyoming, two teams that Jerry Palm has picked as possible #7 seeds. The Cardinals have last year's Big East POY, among other things.
After that, it depends on a lot of factors, but that's true for about half the teams that will get to the Sweet 16. One of the factors definitely is whether RU can shake off the little funk that seems to have hit the team since the Tennessee game. (Yes, I know they beat Notre Dame, DePaul and Syracuse after that, but there's definitely been something a little off.)
And about the 60 point thing, I think in RU's case that the key indicator really is not points scored, but points allowed. In all but one of RU's losses this year, they've given up 57 or more points, and they are just 5-5 in those games. When they've given up fewer than 57 points, they're 19-1 (and, for what it's worth, they loss was the Duke game, where Stringer seemed to be trying to make a point with her starters by taking them out for huge chunks of the game when they weren't playing the way she wanted them to play).
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bballjunkee212
Joined: 07 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/08 1:27 pm ::: |
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So I was pretty close with the "60 points" thing.
Even so, if RU comes to play with the right attitude, they could be the toughest team to beat in the tournament. I really expect to see them in the final four.
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fancy_daniel
Joined: 12 Oct 2005
Posts: 4489
Location: Los Angeles
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| Posted: 03/12/08 3:01 pm ::: |
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| bballjunkee212 wrote: |
So I was pretty close with the "60 points" thing.
Even so, if RU comes to play with the right attitude, they could be the toughest team to beat in the tournament. I really expect to see them in the final four. |
Well, it does seem like they've lost their mojo by a lot. Yes, they've had some disappointments. I still strongly think it's because their bench is so thin. When they lost McCurdy, they lost their ability to take bigger risks on defense and that is their backbone. I'll personally be surprised if they make the Final Four.
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IllogicalVulcan
Joined: 18 Mar 2006
Posts: 27
Location: Brooklyn
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| Posted: 03/12/08 5:06 pm ::: |
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| fancy_daniel wrote: |
| When they lost McCurdy, they lost their ability to take bigger risks on defense and that is their backbone. |
Bingo! IMO, anyway. It's not so much that they lost an integral part of their defense. The other players are good enough that the deficit could be made up. But they've lost the extra body to put on the court when two of their players rack up three fouls running the defense.
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thesixthwoman
Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 6296
Location: NYC
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| Posted: 03/12/08 5:57 pm ::: |
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| IllogicalVulcan wrote: |
| fancy_daniel wrote: |
| When they lost McCurdy, they lost their ability to take bigger risks on defense and that is their backbone. |
Bingo! IMO, anyway. It's not so much that they lost an integral part of their defense. The other players are good enough that the deficit could be made up. But they've lost the extra body to put on the court when two of their players rack up three fouls running the defense. |
Myia was particularly adept at playing the top of the "55." It's a bigger loss than just a body. I hate to say it, but CVS' book just coming out can't be helping right now. There's a lot of press attention on her, her 800 wins, her book, and the whole team -- and a lot of pressure on RU, and people are still asking Imus questions. The whole Imus thing has brought some good things, like enough attention to get some recruits who otherwise might have chosen to go elsewhere, but it is still somewhat of an albatross.
This is not to dismiss the given that if RU wins a game by 8-10 points, it's practially a blow-out, so they are often in a down-to-the-wire position and that can go against you with a little late-game luck for an opponent, or a thousand little things (like stopped clocks).
Maybe the loss to Louisville will wake them up.
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