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canadaball



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 12:24 am    ::: Plum Saga Reply Reply with quote

Well the expected first shoe in the Plum saga has dropped with announcement that the Aces have cored their All Star Olympian. There are a ton of angles going on here. The 2025 season is unique in WNBA history b/c no players are signing multi-year contracts in expectation of big salary increases with the new CBA (no one wants to be like Big Syl, who foolishly signed multiyear max deal just before last new CBA which would have doubled her salary). This means that the trade value of all players, even All Stars like Plum (and Jewel Loyd for that matter) is very limited b/c they are all just one year rentals. No one will give up a high draft pick for a player gone the next year, and remember the one sure value in 2026 will be high draft picks still on rookie deals. In the past, players like Natasha Howard, Diggins, and Bonner brought in at least some value b/c their new teams could sign them to multi-year deals. Plum especially, can really put the squeeze on LV if she wants out b/c by coring her, the Aces can be forced to pay her the max ($250k) which would ruin their roster, given the salaries of Wilson, Young, and Chelsea. Paying Plum would mean no $ left to deal with players like Clark and Hayes (or equivalently talented replacements). Let's also remember that the ongoing investigation of the convention deal continues as well as the Hamby lawsuit that revealed the illegal payment methods used by LV to beat the salary cap (private school tuition hidden by using "donations; free year round housing etc.). The above named trio of current LV stars all signed way under market deals, probably juiced by similar illegal payments. Don't think that will go on now. This could be case of who blinks first. Assuming no team will give up value for any one year rental , the LV bargaining chip would be a threat to refuse no value trades for Plum thus forcing her to stay, but this would bust their cap space (plus one must wonder about team chemistry if Wilson/Gray @$50k, and Jackie Young, $80k, play for less than Plum); of course, not known how strong is Plum desire to leave. Next month going to be very interesting; similar issues in Seattle with Jewel demanding trade b/c, once again, she is also is unlikely to bring in trade value. Note a swap of Plum & Jewel won't work in LV b/c Loyd contract is max.


tfan



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 2:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I see that Plum didn’t sign a contract extension and her current contract is supposed to be $200,000. Does that have to mean she wants out or could she have been trying to get the max $250,000 that the Aces have now offered her after coring her? At least I don’t see any quotes from Plum regarding leaving Las Vegas.

https://www.thescore.com/wnba/news/3187330


canadaball



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 10:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I see that Plum didn’t sign a contract extension and her current contract is supposed to be $200,000. Does that have to mean she wants out or could she have been trying to get the max $250,000 that the Aces have now offered her after coring her? At least I don’t see any quotes from Plum regarding leaving Las Vegas.

https://www.thescore.com/wnba/news/3187330


Here is the latest from the hometown LV paper: The https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/aces/aces-put-core-designation-on-pending-all-star-free-agent-3263621/
Aces continue to be full of praise (justifiably) for Plum's role with team. Interesting that, unlike some other famous splits, there has been total silence from the Plum camp, but a fair assessment is that she wants out. Given she has taken the entire off season off, I doubt any of this is about the $.
In some ways this reminds me of Natasha Howard in Seattle 2021. The Storm had won titles in 2018 & 2020, failing in 2019 b/c absence of both Stew & Bird. Staying with Seattle (and making the supermax $) would have always consigned Natasha to being second fiddle behind Stew. In LV, Plum's role will always be behind Wilson, and also perhaps behind Young & Gray. She, like Howard, has won multiple titles and may want chance for main spotlight; also note that both were 30 yr olds at this juncture.
I have been thinking, and in WNBA history, I really cannot think of a situation where a request by a star who desires to leave her current team (no matter the reason) is not eventually honored. I do remember Chicago taking half a season to trade Syl to the Lynx, and the DelaDonne situation in Wash is a bit murky, but this history worth remembering when considering the eventual resolution with players like Plum, Sabolly & Jewel. Unlike many other team sports, WNBA teams do not keep unhapply star roster players.


Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 3:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

canadaball wrote:
Aces continue to be full of praise (justifiably) for Plum's role with team. Interesting that, unlike some other famous splits, there has been total silence from the Plum camp, but a fair assessment is that she wants out. Given she has taken the entire off season off, I doubt any of this is about the $.

That is an assessment, and it may prove to be accurate, but I dispute the claim that it's "fair."



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canadaball



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 4:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Silky Johnson wrote:
canadaball wrote:
Aces continue to be full of praise (justifiably) for Plum's role with team. Interesting that, unlike some other famous splits, there has been total silence from the Plum camp, but a fair assessment is that she wants out. Given she has taken the entire off season off, I doubt any of this is about the $.

That is an assessment, and it may prove to be accurate, but I dispute the claim that it's "fair."



When a player in Plum's position does not sign a contract, forcing the core, and makes no pronouncements of love for her current team, my guess is she wants out. I searched the LV Aces website & general internet sources for news, and can find no evidence that Plum has had anything to do with the Aces since end of last season. Substitute "logical" for "fair" if u like.


Shades



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 4:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

canadaball wrote:
Silky Johnson wrote:
canadaball wrote:
Aces continue to be full of praise (justifiably) for Plum's role with team. Interesting that, unlike some other famous splits, there has been total silence from the Plum camp, but a fair assessment is that she wants out. Given she has taken the entire off season off, I doubt any of this is about the $.

That is an assessment, and it may prove to be accurate, but I dispute the claim that it's "fair."



When a player in Plum's position does not sign a contract, forcing the core, and makes no pronouncements of love for her current team, my guess is she wants out. I searched the LV Aces website & general internet sources for news, and can find no evidence that Plum has had anything to do with the Aces since end of last season. Substitute "logical" for "fair" if u like.


Does Breanna Stewart want out? She was cored.

Pronouncing love for the team. How should she do that? It’s not exactly a great bargaining chip.

She signed with Unrivaled and backed out, so maybe she has personal stuff going on.



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Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 6:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

canadaball wrote:
When a player in Plum's position does not sign a contract, forcing the core, and makes no pronouncements of love for her current team, my guess is she wants out. I searched the LV Aces website & general internet sources for news, and can find no evidence that Plum has had anything to do with the Aces since end of last season. Substitute "logical" for "fair" if u like.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

The only thing we know for sure is that Kelsey Plum has not yet signed an extension to stay with the Las Vegas Aces. Nobody knows why. And, from my point of view, a whole lot of people seem overly eager to project their own biases into any possible reasoning; like they're trying to will Plum leaving the Aces into existence.



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canadaball



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PostPosted: 01/12/25 8:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
canadaball wrote:
Silky Johnson wrote:
canadaball wrote:
Aces continue to be full of praise (justifiably) for Plum's role with team. Interesting that, unlike some other famous splits, there has been total silence from the Plum camp, but a fair assessment is that she wants out. Given she has taken the entire off season off, I doubt any of this is about the $.

That is an assessment, and it may prove to be accurate, but I dispute the claim that it's "fair."



When a player in Plum's position does not sign a contract, forcing the core, and makes no pronouncements of love for her current team, my guess is she wants out. I searched the LV Aces website & general internet sources for news, and can find no evidence that Plum has had anything to do with the Aces since end of last season. Substitute "logical" for "fair" if u like.


Does Breanna Stewart want out? She was cored.

Pronouncing love for the team. How should she do that? It’s not exactly a great bargaining chip.

She signed with Unrivaled and backed out, so maybe she has personal stuff going on.


From NY Post: https://nypost.com/2025/01/11/sports/liberty-to-designate-breanna-stewart-as-core-player/
Key quote: "Stewart made it clear in 2024 that she planned to return on a one-year deal to defend the Liberty’s WNBA title."
The Stewart core is actually completely opposite from Plum who has said nary a word about her plans with LV.
Not sure what bargaining is involved with Plum's core. As I discussed above, it seems to me that she holds most of the cards. If she refuses to take less than the supermax, the only way LV can hold her or retain ability to trade her, is offering her $250k which busts their salary cap. If the Aces cannot get real value from a Plum trade (for reasons outlined, I doubt anyone will give up much for one year rental); the only threat LV has would be to dare Plum to sit out. but Plum's threat to show up & collect that max thereby ruining the roster seems stronger to me. Of course should Plum sit out & become DelaDonne II, the Ace's 2025 title hopes go down the drain.

In the past, the Aces have gotten their stars, and several key reserves, to all play for way under market value. Maybe they can convince Sabolly to play for relative peanuts & engineer trading Plum to Dallas, but the Hamby lawsuit revealed the LV illegalities, and, with the convention deal under investigation (u hear no mention of that $100k/roster player lately), I doubt LV dare go that route again. Aside: Notice that during the 2024 season, the Aces made no deals with any other team, despite having cap space to improve roster (it helps that Hayes, Stokes, and Clark were playing for rock bottom). I suspect there is plenty of anger throughout the league about LV contravention of cap, and teams just won't help them; thus see even more reason for no one to give up any real value for Plum. Perhaps Chicago or Golden State, both coached by former LV assistants might step up, but I suspect there is plenty of league sentiment that will enjoy the Aces troubles.


J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 1:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If Plum stay fro the super max, which I say why not everyone is waiting for the new CBA in 26 and while she hasn't said anything I'm not sure if there is a problem with returning or not on her end, if there isn't take the money
It doesn't completely destroy their cap

assuming she comes back for the 250k super max
they keep their current six contracts
C, Gray, Young, Wilson, Stokes, Bell and Gustafson (they can always swap Gustafson out for a similar priced player vet minimum).
And they bring in a hopefully healthy Kitley on her inexpensive 70k contract they have about 340k left for 3 more players

You can do a lot with 340k
maybe not bring back both Clark and Hayes but it is not out of the question last year they played for 200k combined. You could pay them both 130k a piece and round out the roster with a vet minimum or a 2nd round draft pick.

Or if you want to go in another direction you could do two vet minimums about 80k a piece and have about 180k left over for one closer to top tier player

or do something in-between like bring in one draft pick, give Clark or Hayes 120k and have about 160k bring in a decent free agent

LV could realistically do something like

Gray/Vet minimum or draft pick 70 or 80k
Plum/Hayes or Clark 120k
Young/Bell
Wilson/Gustafson or equivalent vet post around 80k
Stokes/Kitley

and depending on how much they spend on Hayes or Clark have about 160 left for one more player stay the course with both Hayes and Clark returning

or see if 160k is enough for someone like N. Howard or M. Russell or G. Williams or Parker-Tyus to go ship hunting for a year, or if that is enough to out bid Conn for Carrington or Chicago for Carter or LA McDonald

Any team with Gray, Plum, Young and Wilson is going to be a contender, and while not rich enough to go after the biggest names LV would still have the cap to reload with decent role players or slightly past their prime stars around that top core.

Now of course if Plum wants out then so be it. But if she stays even at the super max it shouldn't destroy the team and all the top players are getting extra money from unrivaled or Athletes unlimited or over seas and will be able to cash in in 26 with the new CBA, so hopefully jealousy wouldn't be an issue.


J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 1:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Now if Plum wants to be traded and specifically wants to be traded to GS as the rumor mills implies maybe something like

K. Thornton, The return of K. Martin and the #5 pick for Plum?

Vegas fets Martin back, Thornton is the perfect role player for Vegas off the bench and pick 5 gives them a young player for the future. It would also give Vegas enough cap to go with 12 players instead of 11, or consolidate at 11 with one more decent priced free agent

GS gets a new star in Plum, and hopefully Plum and a ton of cap is enough for GS to pull in a couple more top free agents two or three of say Bri Jones, A. Thomas, Bonner, N. Ogwumike, Sloot, N. Howard, EDD, G. Williams, Carrington, would be an interesting place to start.


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PostPosted: 01/13/25 9:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Iirc, Plum was the last LV player to sign last year.



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 9:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Why does anyone think Kate Martin is a valuable WNBA player?



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eyevolley4



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 10:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With Hammon, A’ja, and Chelsea in Vegas, the only mission is solving how to win now.

For Hammon, it’s how she’s wired. A’ja is the MVP and she will want to be competing for titles. Chelsea isn’t getting any younger, and I perceive those three to be the primary pieces of the current roster from the standpoint of dominant personalities who will dictate how the team operates.

I am willing to bet that the love of Plum will be there forever, but there has to be recognition that if she can’t stop Sab, she’s a defensive liability that the Aces have to overcome. Considering New York outclasses them in the paint by virtue of A’ja’s tandem being one of Kiah, Clark, or Meg - they are just given up too much ground in two places to be seen as the front runner. Two years ago they junked together a plan but honestly took advantage of New York’s lack of readiness to handle complete unknowns and find safety valves like Leonie and JJ with regularity.

I am willing to bet that Vegas wants to retain Tip but I actually think they need to just move Jackie to the shooting guard position. Then they can source a true shooter (DeWanna Bonner perhaps?) and a new option in the post. Natasha Howard comes to mind.

Swap Plum out for future picks.

PG - Chelsea/
SG - Jackie/Tip
SF - DB/Clark
PF - Howard/Meg
C - A’ja/Liz

I’m sure this involves people like Tip and Clark and DB and maybe Howard playing for less than market value, but this feels like a way to claw back to championship level if they can sell people on it.



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 12:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Why does anyone think Kate Martin is a valuable WNBA player?


You don't think her two points a game are worth much in a trade?


J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 3:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
ClayK wrote:
Why does anyone think Kate Martin is a valuable WNBA player?


You don't think her two points a game are worth much in a trade?


GS has no one to trade why not take back the player that already knows your system and has played with everyone. Every team needs players 9-12 Martin is fine for that. And GS took her in the dispersal draft over other players so she must have a little value.

Thornton and pick 5 are the more valuable assets in that trade (probably still not enough for Plum but this scenario assume there is a trade request which always lowers the value of the return) why not bring back a familiar face who seemed to fit in. (Martin actually made the LV roster while other first year and camp players were cut so they must have liked working with her).


tfan



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 3:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Why does anyone think Kate Martin is a valuable WNBA player?


I didn't realize Martin played as much as she had - 34 games at 11.5 mpg. Her PER of 6.4 was less than stellar but Natalie Nakase selected her and said she was looking for players who had:

1) “ultra competitiveness” Real competitive players who hate losing and love winning.
2) “high character” Good body language leaving and returning to the bench. Players who will put team above themselves.
3) Never satisfied mindset. They want to play as if they have something to prove.


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PostPosted: 01/13/25 3:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Valkyries selected a bunch of players they can cut without remorse so they can sign free agents this year and next.

An average PER is 15.0



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tfan



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 4:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
The Valkyries selected a bunch of players they can cut without remorse so they can sign free agents this year and next.

An average PER is 15.0


Are you saying Valkyries (that is Nakase and GM Ohemaa Nyanin) took Martin specifically because they felt she was not WNBA worthy and others on the Vegas roster they could have chosen were? That they were choosing "less than the best available".

I put up Martin's PER ("less than stellar" was being cute but saying "not good") to show that her play - at least statistically - didn't make her an expansion pick from #7 on the team players. That was the lowest PER on the Aces. But Nakase ignored that for her other criteria which made her think Kate Martin is a "valuable" WNBA player. (I don't know if Nakase would choose "valuable" as her adjective.)


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PostPosted: 01/13/25 5:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't think they really cared who they took. They need to be cheap, and Martin, as mentioned, could be a fine #11 (break glass in case of emergency) on a cheap deal. And people know who she is, and she's white, and cute.

With no bad contracts, a full salary cap, and a horde of 2026 free agents-to-be, all they need to do this year is sign Nneka and point to the future.



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PostPosted: 01/13/25 9:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
Now if Plum wants to be traded and specifically wants to be traded to GS as the rumor mills implies maybe something like

K. Thornton, The return of K. Martin and the #5 pick for Plum?

Vegas fets Martin back, Thornton is the perfect role player for Vegas off the bench and pick 5 gives them a young player for the future. It would also give Vegas enough cap to go with 12 players instead of 11, or consolidate at 11 with one more decent priced free agent

GS gets a new star in Plum, and hopefully Plum and a ton of cap is enough for GS to pull in a couple more top free agents two or three of say Bri Jones, A. Thomas, Bonner, N. Ogwumike, Sloot, N. Howard, EDD, G. Williams, Carrington, would be an interesting place to start.


The Valkyries would have to be brain dead to make that trade. Even if it came with Plum on a 5 year deal, why would you do that instead of drafting Morrow, Miles, Citron, or a potential great player like that to build around. I don't see Plum as a player GS can spend 5 years building the team around. They might give up Martin and a 2nd round pick for a one year rental of Plum, but even that seems sketchy.



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PostPosted: 01/14/25 9:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Olivia Miles indeed looks like a future great player, but will she be there at 5?

Citron seems like a solid rotation player/starter, but very good would seem to be her ceiling. (I really like her game but I think she's limited by athleticism.)

As for Morrow, she can't shoot, and at her size, I can't see a non-shooter being a star.

But I agree it would be a bad deal for the V's. But this is not a deep draft.



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Rock Hard



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PostPosted: 01/14/25 10:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Olivia Miles indeed looks like a future great player, but will she be there at 5?

Citron seems like a solid rotation player/starter, but very good would seem to be her ceiling. (I really like her game but I think she's limited by athleticism.)

As for Morrow, she can't shoot, and at her size, I can't see a non-shooter being a star.

But I agree it would be a bad deal for the V's. But this is not a deep draft.

Morrow averages 18 points per game with a 53% shooting percentage. Those numbers reveal that she can shoot. Now if you mean that she is not a great THREE POINT shooter, then yes. She is not a great three point threat.



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canadaball



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PostPosted: 01/14/25 11:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

https://www.si.com/onsi/womens-fastbreak/news/aces-reporter-reveals-why-kelsey-plum-leaving-team-seems-to-be-most-likely-scenario-01jhjq02wpst

Here is another indication (from a hometown reporter with close links) that it is highly likely Plum wants out of LV.

At this point, I am going to assume Plum is gone. You know it is interesting that just this year, Cappie Pondexter is being inducted into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame (Plum a sure thing when she retires). I think there are parallels between the 2 careers. Cappie was a great #2 pick (Plum was #1) for Phx in 2006. She joined with DT, but, like Plum, was a vital second fiddle when team won titles in 2007 & 2009. Like Plum, she was both an All Star & Olympian. After the 2009 season, Cappy demanded a trade to NY, and as we have seen so often, her original team complied. It took Phx several years to recover from loss of Cappy, and I believe the great Taurasi would have won more titles had Pondexter stayed. Plum was perfect fit for the LV title teams. If she leaves, I believe another All Time great, Wilson, might have difficulty getting more rings, especially this year.
Note also how the Aces are treating Plum with kind kid gloves. Remember that a disgruntled Hamby, who knew of all the rule breaking, created big problems for the Aces. Consider also that that original (shoddy) in house WNBA investigation never even interviewed the other players (for starters would love to know who paid the private school tuition for Parker's kid, when Candace took $100k pay cut to sign with LV). I seriously doubt there will be any hardball tactics from LV in dealing with Plum, who, like Hamby, for multiple years supposedly played for contracts way under her market value. Worth repeating that none of the 4 LV Olympians were in the top 15 WNBA salaries, and key reserves Stokes, Clark, & Hayes were all paid in bottom 13 of all W veterans.


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PostPosted: 01/15/25 6:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Plum to Los Angeles for Azurá Stevens.



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canadaball



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PostPosted: 01/15/25 9:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

eyevolley4 wrote:
Plum to Los Angeles for Azurá Stevens.


Given that all these trades involving veterans are one year deals, this makes sense in many ways. LV brings in a much needed front line player, making $195k to pair with Wilson, thus saving $55k over Plum. The new LA coach is one of these 3 point shooting devotees and her current LA roster features some of the weakest outside shooting in the league; of course, losing Stevens, with a rehabbing Brink would severely weaken the one LA strength: its front court. I maintain that Plum is calling the shots here, and we do not know if LA is a desired destination.
Mention of an LA-LV trade brings to mind how disastrous, for LV, was the last trade between these teams. LV traded (unloaded) a pregnant Hamby plus their 2024 first round pick for Zowee B (immediately cut) and LA's 2nd round pick. The Aces then signed Parker who magically took a $100k+ pay cut. Parker's injuries and the followup loss of their 2025 first round pick in the Hamby penalties reveal how bad this move turned out, especially b/c Hamby has returned to superstar status. Note that the Aces did win the 2023 title helped greatly by 6th woman of year, Clark, who magically (there's that word again) took a $60k/yr pay cut. Is there any other professional team in any sport that has that magic wand to convince all its key players to play for way under market value????


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