RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

The games have all been played (except for 4 conference championships) so all that is left is to evaluate the resumes of the 16 bubble teams for the last 6 bids:

Penn St. (NET 27, overall record 19-12, Q1 record 3-9, 3 Q2 losses, best win: Nebraska)

If the Committee likes the NET ranking Penn St will get a bid but their overall resume looks a little short. the same number of Q1 wins and non-Q1 losses is generally not good enough.

Washington St (NET 29, 18-14, Q1: 6-11, 3 Q2 losses, wins over UCLA, Gonzaga and Colorado)

Washington St has a very good resume but will 3 losses to Cal, including a 65-44 drubbing in the Pac 12 Tournament knock them out. WSU lost Charlisse Leger-Walker to an injury and went 3-8 afterwards. If the Committee considers the injury WSU may get left out.

Arizona (NET 34, 17-15, Q!: 5-14, 1 Q2 loss, wins over Stanford and Utah)

Arizona should get a bid unless the Committee doesn't like the overall record.

Texas A&M (NET 40, 19-12, Q1: 4-8, 4 Q2 losses, wins over Tennessee and Mississippi)

Charlie Creme has the Aggies in but no top 25 wins, 4 Q2 losses and a 6-10 conference record are all rweasons that I believe A&M will come up short.

Washington (NET 42, 16-14, Q1: 4-11, 2 Q2 losses and 1 Q3 loss, wins over Utah, USC and Oregon St)

The wins are very good but Washington lost any chance at a bid whem they lost to Arizona in the first round of the Pac 12 tournament.

Auburn (NET 45, 20-11, Q1 3-8, 3 Q2 losses, win over LSU)

If Auburn gets in it will be because of their win over LSU. The rest of the resume is quintessential bubble but that 1 win may be enough for a bid.

TCU (NET 46, 19-11, Q1 1-8, 3 Q2 losses, best win over Nebraska)
This was a good team early on but injuries ruined the season and will keep them out of the tourney.

Mississippi St (NET 47, 21-11, Q1: 4-6, 4 Q2 losses and 1 Q3 loss, win over LSU)

MSU has one chance of getting a bid and that is the win over LSU. Otherwise the resume is weak with 5 non Q1 losses. Their loss to Texas A&M in the SEC tourney likely makes them a WBIT team.

Michigan (NET 48, 20-13, Q1: 5-10, 3 Q2 losses, wins over Ohio St and Indiana) This is the best overall resume of the bubble teams. They should be in.

Miami (NET 51, 19-12, Q1: 5-8, 4 Q2 losses, best win over North Carolina St)

Not quite as good as Michigan, but this looks like a tournament resume. The win over North Carolina in the ACC tourney probably locked up the bid.

Villanova (NET 52, 18-12, Q1: 2-8, 3 Q2 losses and 1 Q3 loss)

Villanova came within 2 points of beating Marquette for a third time, and those 2 points mean no bid.


Columbia (NET 54, 23-6, Q1: 0-4, 3 Q2 losses, best win over Princeton)

Without a Q1 win Columbia is destined to miss out on the NCAA tournament yet again, unless their are a lot of eggheads on the Committee.

Vanderbilt (NET 57, 22-9, Q1: 4-5, 3 Q1 losses and 1 Q3 loss, best win over Iowa St)

Vanderbilt is another SEC team that is right on the bubble. The Commodores best claim to a bid is that they finished 6th in the SEC, but a loss to Florida in their first tourney game makes them a tough call. With no top 30 wins and a Q3 loss this may be the toughest call.

California (NET 59, 18-14, Q1: 5-11, 3 Q2 losses, best wins, 3 wins over Washington St)

Cal has an 18-14 record, they are only 59 in the NET and they have not beaten a top 25 team. On the plus side they have 5 Q1 wins and only 3 Q2 losses. The Bears will probably be just short but they could make it.

St Josephs (NET 62, 26-5, Q1: 1-2, 2 Q2 losses and 1 Q4 loss, best win over Villanova)

Three weeks ago St Jos' looked like an NCAA team but a loss to Fordham and then a loss to Rhode Island in the A 10 tourney will keep them out.

Drake (NET 65, 28-5, Q1: 1-3, 2 Q2 losses, best win over Creighton)

Drake can get in by beating Missouri St. If they don't they are a bubble team, but unless the Committee wants a mid major they will likely be out.