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Fate of the ACC in the coming years? |
0 schools depart; the conference stays completely intact |
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20% |
[ 3 ] |
1-3 schools depart; the conference may or may not backfill accordingly |
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60% |
[ 9 ] |
4-6 schools depart, but the conference survives; backfilling practically becomes a must |
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6% |
[ 1 ] |
7+ schools depart; the conference collapses like the Pac-12, leaving the remaining schools' futures hanging in the balance |
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13% |
[ 2 ] |
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Total Votes : 15 |
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4701
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Posted: 12/24/23 5:58 pm ::: ACC no more? |
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some would say it was long-awaited, but this week, Florida State University (FSU) filed an official complaint for declaratory judgment against the ACC, challenging the validity of the ACC's Grant of Rights (GOR) as well as the severity of its withdrawal penalties.
FSU's Board of Trustees (BOT) estimated exit fees to leave would be upwards of $572M. https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1738216363447955520
FSU's legal counsel also claims that ESPN has a "unilateral" right to extend the current GOR from 2027 to 2036, though importantly that it has not yet, and that current ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips back in 2021 gave ESPN in writing the right to decide on that extension by February 2025. https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1738218765681082608
legally, ESPN's media rights contract with the conference requires the conference to have a minimum of 15 members. (yes, Notre Dame counts as one.) consider the three recent additions of Stanford, SMU, and Cal.
and speaking of those additions, FSU's full list of "breach of contract"-related claims against the ACC (headlined by FSU's disapproval of those additions) can be found here: https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/1738261956677583043
the ACC anticipated this action taken by FSU, and one day earlier filed a lawsuit against the FSU BOT stating that any matters regarding both the university and the conference must be subject to jurisdiction of the state of North Carolina, where the ACC is headquartered – rather than, say, courts within the state of Florida friendlier to its flagship university. https://twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1738253803596488931
in the coming weeks, it is believed/rumored that at least one other ACC school will soon take on a pursuit similar to FSU in effectively challenging the GOR's validity thereby trying to initiate a departure from the conference. that school is Clemson University.
and the University of North Carolina is at least eventually expected to follow suit. (FSU, Clemson, and UNC were the three schools that voted against the additions of Stanford, SMU, and Cal – NC State also was going to vote against the additions but inexplicably flipped in the end, becoming the deciding vote.) beyond that, potentially at least one more university is looking heavily at ultimately departing in this same way – Miami (FL), Virginia, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State are all said to be in the mix, which wouldn't come as any surprise to those who are familiar with the conference's "Magnificent 7" incident from several months ago.
all ACC schools, including Notre Dame, will be watching to see how things play out – the full timeline of which is naturally impossible to predict – and where they themselves fit into this. to what should come as no surprise, there have been feelings of panic and mistrust between the ACC schools for months now; backdoor communications between ACC schools & other conferences have been set up. each entity is planning for the worst, especially after having witnessed what just happened to the Pac-12.
allegedly, FSU would be willing to pay more $ in a negotiated settlement in order to depart the conference as soon as possible. if that's not possible, everyone'll be in it for the long haul. but many believe this song & dance at least between the ACC & FSU only ends in a negotiated settlement. we shall see.
the poll lasts until the end of March, btw.
Last edited by Stormeo on 12/28/23 5:38 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4701
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Posted: 12/24/23 6:02 pm ::: |
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in terms of rumors, hereby dated the twenty-fourth day of December, 2023:
—FSU to the Big Ten, since the Noles at this point straight-up despise ESPN which fully sponsors the SEC's media rights, is as likely as ever.
—both the Big Ten & the SEC want UNC & UVA, but neither want NC State & Virginia Tech.
—it's likely that UVA & Virginia Tech are tied at the hip right now, unless UVA makes a political move to free itself [up]. that could determine where both schools' go, if anywhere.
—as the main sponsor of the Big Ten's media rights, Fox would prefer FSU be paired with Miami (FL) over Clemson if all three become available to the Big Ten.
—although the Big Ten & SEC supposedly have interest in Clemson, the Big 12 may become their landing spot should the Tigers follow through in pursuing an exit from the ACC. (that's what being in South Carolina vs. more densely populated states like Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia gets you.)
—the Big 12 would take whoever becomes available to them, aside from maybe Boston College, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and the new ACC additions.
—some believe the Big 12's most realistic targets outside of the 'Magnificent 7' schools are Louisville and Pitt.
—absolutely no one will forget in the end that Duke University exists.
—and the existence of the University of Notre Dame du Lac will not be forgotten about either, hard as we try.
—Big 12–ACC[–Pac-2] merger talks are ultimately as unsubstantiated as they are believable.
—speaking of the Pac[-2], even as the two schools just won the rights & assets to the conference, they will not be joining any conference until after the departing ten schools leave on August 2.
—speaking of August 2024, the deadline to withdraw from the ACC in time for the 2025-26 academic year is August 15. that's apparently a soft goal FSU has in getting their own baggage handled. the Noles of course won't be doing that though if the ACC continues to own the Noles' media rights by then.
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pilight
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Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66936 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 12/24/23 6:28 pm ::: |
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How many years are "coming years"?
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4701
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Posted: 12/24/23 9:03 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
How many years are "coming years"? |
between now and 2027 was honestly the range i had in mind.
especially if one considers that ESPN apparently has a choice to make in about 14 months or so for something that would take effect in 2027, schools may have to act in a more timely manner than some would expect.
some still think the whole process could play out beyond 2027, though not by a whole lot longer than that. we should know where the current trajectory of college sports is leading to by the 2029-30 academic year.
Last edited by Stormeo on 12/28/23 5:39 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021 Posts: 456 Location: Oklahoma
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Posted: 12/26/23 11:16 am ::: |
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There are three truths. The B1G and SEC are nearing a status that completely separates them from the Big 12 and ACC. The Big 12 diluted their product in a panicked move to add G5 schools, and the ACC raiding of the Big East ultimately watered their brand to the product it is now. There are no schools left with the brand value and market that could for sure pass an expansion vote outside of ND. FSU is the next closest, but don't think they move the needle enough in a superconference to not reduce payouts. There is only one solution that combats both of these truths and restores some level of balance to college sports: a Big 12/ACC Merger. Big 12 drops the G5 schools, 8 ACC schools join, and 4 schools join in non-football sports with a 5 game scheduling agreement in football. This would make the P3 that would be:
B1G:
USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa
Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Northwestern Illinois
Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers, Wisconsin
SEC:
West: OU, Texas, TAMU, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou, Ole Miss, Miss St
East: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, SCar, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy
Big 12:
East: FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Virginia, VA Tech, WVU, Louisville, Iowa St(Duke and ND in non-football sports)
West: TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, OK State, Kansas, Kansas St, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona St(Oregon St, Stanford in non-football sports)
_________________ okstateguy
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Michael
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Joined: 23 Mar 2006 Posts: 602
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Posted: 12/26/23 12:34 pm ::: |
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okstateguy wrote: |
There are three truths. The B1G and SEC are nearing a status that completely separates them from the Big 12 and ACC. The Big 12 diluted their product in a panicked move to add G5 schools, and the ACC raiding of the Big East ultimately watered their brand to the product it is now. There are no schools left with the brand value and market that could for sure pass an expansion vote outside of ND. FSU is the next closest, but don't think they move the needle enough in a superconference to not reduce payouts. There is only one solution that combats both of these truths and restores some level of balance to college sports: a Big 12/ACC Merger. Big 12 drops the G5 schools, 8 ACC schools join, and 4 schools join in non-football sports with a 5 game scheduling agreement in football. This would make the P3 that would be:
B1G:
USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa
Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Northwestern Illinois
Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers, Wisconsin
SEC:
West: OU, Texas, TAMU, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou, Ole Miss, Miss St
East: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, SCar, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy
Big 12:
East: FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Virginia, VA Tech, WVU, Louisville, Iowa St(Duke and ND in non-football sports)
West: TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, OK State, Kansas, Kansas St, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona St(Oregon St, Stanford in non-football sports) |
For the Big Ten if the ACC were to explode, I think they would take up to 4 more teams, in this order; ND, UNC, UVa, Miami, GaTech, Syracuse. All 6 are good adds for the academic arm and bring more cable subscriptions to the BT network pool of money. FSU and Clemson are just football teams with mediocre colleges attached and I do not think the BT will find that compelling.
You also left Purdue and IU out of the BT which I don't think ever happens as founding members and the top two teams in BT basketball titles and both premiere research institutions. That often gets ignored by sports writers that don't have a real understanding of the Big Ten. The academic arm of the conference is nearly as old as the athletic arm shares out over 2 billion dollars in research grants to the member schools every year. You have to add to that pot as well as the athletic pot to get considered. Its why in the 90s ND got offered a partial membership to the BT, athletics only. It became the sticking point in the negotiations. ND has since added a lot more research facilities and gained AAU membership, which all new schools have had to have and only Nebraska is not as there is an ongoing discrepency about counting their med school in the valuations for AAU membership which got them booted.
_________________ Michael
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4701
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Posted: 12/26/23 9:53 pm ::: |
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Michael wrote: |
For the Big Ten if the ACC were to explode, I think they would take up to 4 more teams, in this order; ND, UNC, UVa, Miami, GaTech, Syracuse. All 6 are good adds for the academic arm and bring more cable subscriptions to the BT network pool of money. FSU and Clemson are just football teams with mediocre colleges attached and I do not think the BT will find that compelling. |
these realignment decisions factor in the tv executives virtually as much as they do the university presidents. FSU and Clemson may or may not join the Big Ten, but their football teams' respective storied histories & recent successes matter. and fwiw, both FSU and Clemson are supposedly higher up the public universities list than new Big Ten school Oregon.
maybe it's just a hunch but i think the Big Ten will find FSU in particular very compelling, even as everyone wants North Carolina & Virginia. i also hear that FSU may be close to becoming an AAU school in the next year or two.
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4701
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Posted: 12/26/23 9:58 pm ::: |
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okstateguy wrote: |
There is only one solution that combats both of these truths and restores some level of balance to college sports: a Big 12/ACC Merger. Big 12 drops the G5 schools, 8 ACC schools join, and 4 schools join in non-football sports with a 5 game scheduling agreement in football. |
i don't think it's realistic to see the Big 12 drop the Cincy/UCF/Houston trio [or anyone else] now that they're in it. so long as the schools have FBS-level football programs, trimming the 'excess' off a conference is nice in theory but just not feasible in real life. that'd also be a dubious, legally or otherwise, practice for a conference commissioner seeing as they're supposed to represent/advocate for all of the schools in the conference... theoretically, anyway.
i like the idea of a Big 12/ACC merger, but i'm not sure it'll ever get to that point. like most conferences, the ACC is only as valuable as its teams at the top are. every 'valuable' team aka brand that departs is a shot to the ACC's heart. if even only 2-3 of its top 6-7 brands leave, any departure devalues the conference and only makes it that much likelier that others will too if the calculus is right. as USC/UCLA and then later Colorado has shown, it only takes 1-2 to get the ball rolling.
if the best ACC brands leave for the Big Ten or SEC, why wouldn't Yormark/the Big 12 just wait for any remaining valuable brands to reach back out for him? (virtually all of them have already...) is taking another conference's assets such as the ACC Network worth taking in all its excess? SMU, BC, Wake, etc. it could all depend on how many ACC schools initially leave.
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Michael
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Joined: 23 Mar 2006 Posts: 602
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Posted: 12/27/23 8:26 am ::: |
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Stormeo wrote: |
Michael wrote: |
For the Big Ten if the ACC were to explode, I think they would take up to 4 more teams, in this order; ND, UNC, UVa, Miami, GaTech, Syracuse. All 6 are good adds for the academic arm and bring more cable subscriptions to the BT network pool of money. FSU and Clemson are just football teams with mediocre colleges attached and I do not think the BT will find that compelling. |
these realignment decisions factor in the tv executives virtually as much as they do the university presidents. FSU and Clemson may or may not join the Big Ten, but their football teams' respective storied histories & recent successes matter. and fwiw, both FSU and Clemson are supposedly higher up the public universities list than new Big Ten school Oregon.
maybe it's just a hunch but i think the Big Ten will find FSU in particular very compelling, even as everyone wants North Carolina & Virginia. i also hear that FSU may be close to becoming an AAU school in the next year or two. |
There certainly are compelling reasons to add FSU to the Big Ten. But the BT is a pretty tight group. Rutgers was a head scratcher for outsiders to join the BT, but they have for years been partners with Purdue and Illinois in apple breeding and developing new varieties. Anything with the PIR brand is from that joint research. There were similar connections with Nebraska and Penn State to existing members when they were added. Oregon and Washington were publicly and privately politely rebuffed many times when they asked to join the BT. It was only when they came with their hats in their hands begging and offering to take half a share of revenue that they got a seat at the kiddies table. I don't see FSU accepting that. I also do not believe OU and UW got invited to the academic arm of the conference, which is sharing out billions in research grants to the members which are the established BT members which includes founding member UIC who left in athletics but stayed in the academic arm about 100 years ago. Many schools over the years have begged to join the BT, and been politely rebuffed as not adding enough athletically, academically, or recently financially to merit their inclusion. All that being said, I did not expect OU and UW to get in even as half share members so I could be wrong on FSU, but that is where I stand on it.
_________________ Michael
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4701
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Posted: 12/28/23 12:05 pm ::: |
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not to say the Big Ten presidents aren’t a tight-knit group, but they did just add four schools and became the first ‘Power’ conference to 18. seems that they’ve at least been interested in expanding their circle.
that FSU made this move seems to imply they [think they] have a landing spot in either the SEC or the B1G once they get out of the GOR. maybe the Noles are still interested in the ESPN-sponsored SEC – or will be in the future when tensions have maybe calmed – but it’s hard to see that right now. nevertheless, we’ll just have to wait & see how this unfolds, as no one knows for sure given how uncharted these waters are for school and conference alike.
Clemson’s future in either the B1G or SEC is a bit harder for people to see, which might be why the Tigers haven’t made an official move yet even as they – like the Noles – have been expected to for a little while now. the landing spot naturally is the most important part of this for these schools. (not to say Clemson for sure wouldn’t raise the Big 12’s payouts though if they joined, cuz they might – but probably not enough to really compete with the B1G/SEC if they even did.)
Last edited by Stormeo on 12/30/23 1:54 am; edited 1 time in total |
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tfan
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Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9635
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Posted: 12/28/23 12:50 pm ::: |
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okstateguy wrote: |
The Big 12 diluted their product in a panicked move to add G5 schools |
What is a G5 school?
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Queenie
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Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18032 Location: Queens
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Posted: 12/28/23 12:54 pm ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
What is a G5 school? |
Group of 5, the five FBS conferences that *aren't* considered Power 5. The five conferences are the American Athletic Conference (American or AAC), Conference USA (C-USA or CUSA), Mid-American Conference (MAC), Mountain West Conference (MW or MWC),[b] and Sun Belt Conference (SBC).
We can discuss the math further once we know what's happening with the Pac-# and the ACC.
_________________ Ardent believer in the separation of church and stadium.
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