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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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 Posted: 04/13/23 4:21 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Within Putin's geopolitical and military strategic goals for Russia—goals that no one else has to accept, of course—he is not acting insane or with delusions, but rather quite rationally and effectively.
More specifically, if one accepts that his goals are to re-integrate parts of the former USSR back into Russia, via some level of influence or control, he has already made significant progress. He effectively controls Belarus. He has invaded and occupies parts of Georgia. He has invaded and controls the Crimean region of Ukraine, and now he wants more control/influence over the rest of that country, which requires a significant military action.
To effect his plan, Putin first had to get his party and government on board, which he seems to have done with political and legal maneuvering over the past several years.
Second, he has to get his populace on board or at least not in opposition. He seems largely to have succeeded in this via propaganda, suppression and criminalization of all critical mainstream and social media, and brutal crackdowns against protestors. A large portion of the Russian populace likely believes that the incursion into Ukraine is a righteous battle against "corrupt Nazis" who have taken over that country and are dangers to Mother Russia.
Third, Putin has to intimidate, threaten, bully and basically scare the West into military paralysis by whatever verbal means necessary. This is where the "insane" rhetoric and "nuke hints" play their role, and the rhetoric seems to have been effective in inducing paralytic intimidation.
Fourth, he has to be able to withstand the economic and other non-military sanctions. He knows he has long-term economic leverage by being a critical supplier of natural gas and oil to Europe and the U.S., which probably gives him confidence that he can withstand short- and mid-term sanctions. But we'll see.
Finally, Putin has to successfully take over Ukraine with a sufficient military incursion so as to obtain his desired degree of political control. So far, he has been holding back his military for some reason. He could easily devastate Kiev and other parts of Ukraine if he unleashes his fixed wing air power to rain down thousands of bombs and air missiles—just as the U.S. has done this century with so much destructive effect in Iraq, Afghanistan and some other places in the Middle East.
Instead, Putin so far has been relying on foot soldiers, armored vehicles and artillery, so the Western press keeps interpreting events as if there is some sort of military stalemate. Putin doesn't need to use nukes. Military success will be inevitable if Putin take his foot off the brakes of his air power. Why he hasn't yet, I'm not sure. And maybe there is some hope in this restraint.
If Putin is successful in achieving his military and geopolitical goals in Ukraine, I would expect him to do the same thing in a few other small places before he retires as the "Re-Uniter of Greater Mother Russia."
Just one current view of the situation, among others, which I might change tomorrow depending on events. |
Putin is responding to NATO's expansion since the they agreed to allow the re-unification of Germany, a country responsible for the deaths of over 30 million Russians in WWII. NATO promised Russia that if they allowed the German reunification there would be no further expansion of NATO into E.Europe. Well, by now the entire world knows that the US's promises are written on tissue and disolve quickly. When the CIA & MI6 supported the 2014 coup that overthrew the democratic government it started a civil war between Ukrainian speaking and Russian speaking Ukrainians. The coup leaders were bombing their own countrymen while the US was getting the coup leaders to sign massive trade agreements that were very favorable to western corporations. Imagine if you will that China did this in Mexico and then started armiong the Mexicans and building bio-labs near the US border? How would the US respond?
This dispute is actually over the plans to create an all-land trade route from China to Europe and replacing the petro-dollar with the petro-yuan. That is what we taxpayers are paying for as another 10-20 billion is shipped to the Neo-fascists of the despicable Azov Brigade. Google them and see who the US calls friends.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 04/13/23 4:45 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| Well, by now the entire world knows that the US's promises are written on tissue and disolve quickly. |
The assurances of non-expansion of NATO weren't written at all. According to Gorbachev it wasn't brought up in the negotiations for German reunification at all. The only issues involving NATO were about deploying military in the former East Germany, which has not happened.
https://rg.ru/2014/10/15/gorbachev.html
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Mikhail Gorbachev: The question of "NATO expansion" in those years was not discussed at all and did not arise. I say this with all responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised it, including after the termination of the Warsaw Pact in 1991. Western leaders did not raise it either.
We discussed another issue that we raised: that after the reunification of Germany there would be no advancement of NATO military structures and the deployment of additional armed forces of the alliance on the territory of the then GDR. In this context, Baker's statement mentioned in your question was made. Kohl and Genscher spoke about the same. |
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 04/13/23 8:22 pm ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
Putin is responding to NATO's expansion since the they agreed to allow the re-unification of Germany, a country responsible for the deaths of over 30 million Russians in WWII. NATO promised Russia that if they allowed the German reunification there would be no further expansion of NATO into E.Europe. Well, by now the entire world knows that the US's promises are written on tissue and disolve quickly. When the CIA & MI6 supported the 2014 coup that overthrew the democratic government it started a civil war between Ukrainian speaking and Russian speaking Ukrainians. The coup leaders were bombing their own countrymen while the US was getting the coup leaders to sign massive trade agreements that were very favorable to western corporations. Imagine if you will that China did this in Mexico and then started armiong the Mexicans and building bio-labs near the US border? How would the US respond?
This dispute is actually over the plans to create an all-land trade route from China to Europe and replacing the petro-dollar with the petro-yuan. That is what we taxpayers are paying for as another 10-20 billion is shipped to the Neo-fascists of the despicable Azov Brigade. Google them and see who the US calls friends. |
Ummm....the above sounds a LOT like talking points one might hear from Tucker Carlson. Most informed thinkers are unlikely to buy this as valid without seeing some credible sources named here.
I'm guessing that, like me, you're old enough to remember the *Old* Soviet Union and the Cold War. It seems pretty easy to believe that Putin is trying to re-create that old authoritarian state, and is merciless in doing so. For the LIFE of me, I cannot fathom how *our* generation can possibly believe that Russia is doing ANYTHING that's justifiable in this current war. WHY Fox News and other media are creating this narrative is incomprehensible - topped only by people in our generations that BELIEVE this.
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Beemer
Joined: 19 Jul 2014
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Stonington_QB
Joined: 05 Jul 2013
Posts: 764
Location: Siege Perilous
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| Posted: 06/06/23 4:27 pm ::: |
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| Wow, that sucks. She joined some elite company at UConn there, right alongside Tate George. Hope the list doesn't grow.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 06/26/23 7:52 pm ::: |
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This latest twist with Prigozhin's *mutiny* certainly led to some hope....and there still may be hope for this trick to undermine Putin to some helpful degree.
Being too lazy to research this, I'm curious if any of you know if/when/how the USA military has implemented mercenaries. I know mercenaries go all the way back in time, but I've never followed current happenings.
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Beemer
Joined: 19 Jul 2014
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| Posted: 06/27/23 3:52 pm ::: |
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| Howee wrote: |
This latest twist with Prigozhin's *mutiny* certainly led to some hope....and there still may be hope for this trick to undermine Putin to some helpful degree.
Being too lazy to research this, I'm curious if any of you know if/when/how the USA military has implemented mercenaries. I know mercenaries go all the way back in time, but I've never followed current happenings. |
The US hired a company called Blackwater to provide security in post-war Iraq. It didn't go well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nisour_Square_massacre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Fallujah_ambush
That's the only instance I remember US hiring mercenaries. I'm sure there's more somewhere. France gets around the mercenary issue by using its Foreign Legion which they use when using the regular French Army wouldn't be popular, politically or otherwise.
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