View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9816
Back to top |
Posted: 03/29/21 8:33 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Quote: |
Does this mean the Spanish Influenza just mutated itself into a far less deadly pathogen? |
Why the 1918 Flu Pandemic Never Really Ended
Quote: |
What’s even more remarkable about the 1918 flu, say infectious disease experts, is that it never really went away. After infecting an estimated 500 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919 (a third of the global population), the H1N1 strain that caused the Spanish flu receded into the background and stuck around as the regular seasonal flu.
But every so often, direct descendants of the 1918 flu combined with bird flu or swine flu to create powerful new pandemic strains, which is exactly what happened in 1957, 1968 and 2009. Those later flu outbreaks, all created in part by the 1918 virus, claimed millions of additional lives, earning the 1918 flu the odious title of “the mother of all pandemics.” |
SARS-CoV-2 may not end up as a tamer version. A less harmful variant doesn't have much advantage unless it stayed in the body longer or is much more contagious, since this virus affects people differently. This serious variant transmits very well through asymptomatic infectees, low-symptomatic infectees and pre-symptomatic infectees. I think the normal scenario to end up with a less severe variant is when people of all stripes are affected relatively the same - the more severe version(s) puts people out of commission early so they stay home and don't cause as much spread of that variant, versus the lesser versions that people power through and continue to go about their normal daily life and spread that variant widely.
|
|
Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15765 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
Back to top |
Posted: 03/31/21 3:44 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Thank you, tfan....interesting premise, that it can/does live on. Scary, too.
_________________ Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
|
|
tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9816
Back to top |
|
tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9816
Back to top |
|
GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8289 Location: Heisenberg
Back to top |
Posted: 04/09/21 2:00 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Don't know what this particular "expert" means, but the very next paragraph in the article says:
Quote: |
That is good news in at least one respect, because studies have shown that vaccines should work on the variant first identified in the United Kingdom. Ho and others said the U.K. variant is most susceptible to the immune response produced by vaccines . . . . |
In the UK, the source of the supposedly scary UK variant, both cases and deaths have plunged during the vaccine campaign (or maybe for other reasons, no "expert" really knows).
|
|
Luuuc #NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005 Posts: 21999
Back to top |
Posted: 04/09/21 7:21 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
It's a real mystery.
Sure, they have pretty much now attained a herd immunity level of (vaccinations + prior infections) in the UK, but who's to say whether that has had anything to do with their plummeting infection & death rates.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
_________________ Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.
|
|
tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9816
Back to top |
Posted: 04/09/21 7:41 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Don't know what this particular "expert" means, but the very next paragraph in the article says:
Quote: |
That is good news in at least one respect, because studies have shown that vaccines should work on the variant first identified in the United Kingdom. Ho and others said the U.K. variant is most susceptible to the immune response produced by vaccines . . . . |
|
I read it as the boxing match is with regard to variants fighting about their transmissibility from person to person. Which one transmits from one person to another the easiest (best) - goes out of a nose or mouth and flies through the air and takes hold in sufficient quantity in the nose/mouth/eye/throat/lungs of another person. As distinct from which one is best at fighting through the current vaccines once they have made it into a new person. So the UK variant would be best at getting into people's bodies and worst at fighting antibodies.
|
|
tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9816
Back to top |
Posted: 09/04/21 8:37 am ::: |
Reply |
|
There is a new variant - mu - that has mutated in a way that they think will make it difficult for antibodies to attack it. Antibodies from either a vaccine, having previously contracted it, or the man-made versions.
Mu Covid Variant: Los Angeles Officials Say First Cases Of New Strain Have Arrived
But before we get too disheartened:
Quote: |
Dr. Anthony Fauci on Thursday said U.S. public health officials are “keeping a very close eye” on a new variant of Covid-19 that was first detected in Colombia. |
|
|
tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9816
Back to top |
|
jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
Back to top |
Posted: 09/07/21 9:56 am ::: |
Reply |
|
tfan wrote: |
I have to wonder if we are going to see a mutation that has a very high fatality rate, say 25%, and "infectious disease specialists" will just monitor it closely as it travels between countries and throughout countries. |
You give good burn._________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
|
FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3519
Back to top |
Posted: 09/07/21 12:10 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Every time the US has tried to limit travel, US citizens have refused to obey. Fauci and the CDC said to stay home this weekend, and travel increased 3-fold over last year, despite having 4 times the number of COVID cases now. People were told not to travel during the last holiday season, did it anyway, and produced a huge surge resulting in a quarter of a million deaths.
Closing the borders is even more problematic. We've tried that to limit drug trafficking and illegal immigrants and have failed. We are in no way self-sufficient enough to halt imports of everything from computers to oil to food to pharmaceuticals and medical supplies nor will our economy survive a complete stoppage of our exports.
The long game is to get everyone on this planet vaccinated against the currently circulating COVID variants, and eliminate the pool of unvaccinated people that serve as incubators for new variants. Most of these new variants arose pre-vaccine release or more recently in places where the vaccination rate is 30% or less. Vaccinating people will cut down significantly (but not completely eliminate) the opportunities for the virus to mutate. We need to be more proactive about distributing vaccines. Our wasted doses could have vaccinated half the Caribbean this year, where vaccination rates are mostly <20%.
|
|
jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 21046
Back to top |
Posted: 09/07/21 3:52 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
So Fro. Hmm. A news anchor last night was leading into a report on COVID and at some point he uttered something like, “And it happened anyway.”
And I hit pause and sort of exploded on the sofa and to mrs jammer, “THAT’s THE CATCH PHRASE OF THE PANDEMIC GOD DAMMIT!”
lol. Point is… well… you know what the point is. It all happened anyway. It’s all going to happen anyway. Whatever it is, it’s going to happen anyway._________________ Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17 |
|
|
|