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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 09/06/17 4:28 pm ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
ClayK wrote: |
Thanks pilight ...
As far as athletes go, the evidence in all sports is pretty clear: Don't trust anyone over 27. |
Which is below the average age of the two best teams in the league. |
Stars peak at an average of age 27 like anyone, but they are often better than most players even after their peak. Nobody with any sense would suggest Carolyn Swords is better than Sylvia Fowles just because Swords is 27 and Fowles is 31.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11403
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Posted: 09/07/17 9:50 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
PUmatty wrote: |
ClayK wrote: |
Thanks pilight ...
As far as athletes go, the evidence in all sports is pretty clear: Don't trust anyone over 27. |
Which is below the average age of the two best teams in the league. |
Stars peak at an average of age 27 like anyone, but they are often better than most players even after their peak. Nobody with any sense would suggest Carolyn Swords is better than Sylvia Fowles just because Swords is 27 and Fowles is 31. |
To expand on my misleading post ... in terms of trading for talent, or relying on talent, expecting improvement after age 27 is less likely to be justified than expecting improvement before age 27.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/08/17 11:44 am ::: |
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Average Age of the All WNBA Teams
Code: |
year avg 30+ under 25
1997 28.2 4 5
1998 29.5 6 1
1999 27.3 2 4
2000 28.2 3 1
2001 27.6 3 1
2002 26.8 2 3
2003 25.1 2 7
2004 26.4 2 4
2005 28.5 4 3
2006 27.7 3 3
2007 26.7 2 2
2008 27.6 2 2
2009 28.6 3 1
2010 26.5 2 4
2011 27.5 3 2
2012 27.0 2 2
2013 27.6 3 3
2014 26.6 3 3
2015 27.3 1 1
2016 27.6 3 2
2017 27.8 3 2 |
_________________ The truth is like poetry
Most people hate poetry
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 09/13/18 9:37 am ::: |
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Average age of the All WNBA teams
Code: |
year avg 30+ under 25
1997 28.2 4 5
1998 29.5 6 1
1999 27.3 2 4
2000 28.2 3 1
2001 27.6 3 1
2002 26.8 2 3
2003 25.1 2 7
2004 26.4 2 4
2005 28.5 4 3
2006 27.7 3 3
2007 26.7 2 2
2008 27.6 2 2
2009 28.6 3 1
2010 26.5 2 4
2011 27.5 3 2
2012 27.0 2 2
2013 27.6 3 3
2014 26.6 3 3
2015 27.3 1 1
2016 27.6 3 2
2017 27.8 3 2
2018 28.5 2 1 |
_________________ The truth is like poetry
Most people hate poetry
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11403
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Posted: 09/12/19 9:12 am ::: |
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That's a lot of data ...
And it's pretty clear, just like in other sports, that 27 is the prime age -- which means that after 27, the odds of decline are much greater than the odds of improvement.
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SDHoops
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 Posts: 1183
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007 Posts: 7365 Location: Underground
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Posted: 09/12/19 12:57 pm ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
That's a lot of data ...
And it's pretty clear, just like in other sports, that 27 is the prime age -- which means that after 27, the odds of decline are much greater than the odds of improvement. |
A significant driver of roster construction is the salary cap. In order to pay older stars, you have to keep some younger players around who are on rookie contracts. Also, rebuilding teams tend to load up on young players based on potential rather than their immediate ability to contribute. Both those factors reflect a bias toward youth that has nothing to do with optimal performance.
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Randy
Joined: 08 Oct 2011 Posts: 10911
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11403
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Posted: 09/12/19 4:17 pm ::: |
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In sports with a bias toward optimal performance, the peak age is 27. Bill James was the first to work this out a long time ago, with more than a century's worth of data points.
Some players, of course, continue to improve after age 27, but there's no way to tell who those players are in advance. Your best pure talent strategy is to load up with players between 25 and 28 because that's the overlap between physical ability and game and personal maturity.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/07/19 8:55 am ::: |
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Average Age of the All WNBA Teams
Code: |
year avg 30+ under 25
1997 28.2 4 5
1998 29.5 6 1
1999 27.3 2 4
2000 28.2 3 1
2001 27.6 3 1
2002 26.8 2 3
2003 25.1 2 7
2004 26.4 2 4
2005 28.5 4 3
2006 27.7 3 3
2007 26.7 2 2
2008 27.6 2 2
2009 28.6 3 1
2010 26.5 2 4
2011 27.5 3 2
2012 27.0 2 2
2013 27.6 3 3
2014 26.6 3 3
2015 27.3 1 1
2016 27.6 3 2
2017 27.8 3 2
2018 28.5 2 1
2019 27.0 1 1 |
_________________ The truth is like poetry
Most people hate poetry
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11403
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Posted: 10/07/19 9:16 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Average Age of the All WNBA Teams
Code: |
year avg 30+ under 25
1997 28.2 4 5
1998 29.5 6 1
1999 27.3 2 4
2000 28.2 3 1
2001 27.6 3 1
2002 26.8 2 3
2003 25.1 2 7
2004 26.4 2 4
2005 28.5 4 3
2006 27.7 3 3
2007 26.7 2 2
2008 27.6 2 2
2009 28.6 3 1
2010 26.5 2 4
2011 27.5 3 2
2012 27.0 2 2
2013 27.6 3 3
2014 26.6 3 3
2015 27.3 1 1
2016 27.6 3 2
2017 27.8 3 2
2018 28.5 2 1
2019 27.0 1 1 |
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This is true across all sports, which is why you see more and more younger players and fewer and fewer 30+.
Also, they did a study on baseball umpires, and found that the older umpires made more mistakes than the younger ones.
Life is cruel ...
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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PickledGinger
Joined: 04 Oct 2013 Posts: 1390
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Posted: 10/07/19 6:24 pm ::: |
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For what it’s worth: I am 34 and playing the best basketball of my life and am I. The best shape I have ever been. Granted, I don’t have the wear and tear of a professional athlete, but in the right circumstances, age ain’t nothing but a number.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11403
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Posted: 10/08/19 9:12 am ::: |
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PickledGinger wrote: |
For what it’s worth: I am 34 and playing the best basketball of my life and am I. The best shape I have ever been. Granted, I don’t have the wear and tear of a professional athlete, but in the right circumstances, age ain’t nothing but a number. |
I was a much better player (softball, basketball, flag football) in my 30s than in my 20s, but that was mostly mental. And I was in better shape because I had started lifting, etc.
But most professional athletes are in excellent shape and have been lifting since (at least) college.
The margin for error at that level is very, very small, and between two well-conditioned professionals, the extra explosion and ability to recover from minor bumps quickly is, as the numbers show, significant.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12793 Location: Dallas , Texas
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24484 Location: London
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Posted: 09/15/20 3:29 pm ::: |
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Old teams have been through the filter. Once you're a few years older, you're only still in the league if someone has decided you're worth it. The younger players are still being tested out. So even before accounting for experience and developed skills, the better teams are never likely to be the youngest. |
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Stormeo
Joined: 14 Jul 2019 Posts: 4707
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/04/20 3:43 pm ::: |
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Average Age of All WNBA teams
Code: |
year avg 30+ under 25
1997 28.2 4 5
1998 29.5 6 1
1999 27.3 2 4
2000 28.2 3 1
2001 27.6 3 1
2002 26.8 2 3
2003 25.1 2 7
2004 26.4 2 4
2005 28.5 4 3
2006 27.7 3 3
2007 26.7 2 2
2008 27.6 2 2
2009 28.6 3 1
2010 26.5 2 4
2011 27.5 3 2
2012 27.0 2 2
2013 27.6 3 3
2014 26.6 3 3
2015 27.3 1 1
2016 27.6 3 2
2017 27.8 3 2
2018 28.5 2 1
2019 27.0 1 1
2020 28.2 4 4 |
_________________ The truth is like poetry
Most people hate poetry
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 10/15/21 2:12 pm ::: |
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Average age of All WNBA teams
Code: |
year avg 30+ under 25
1997 28.2 4 5
1998 29.5 6 1
1999 27.3 2 4
2000 28.2 3 1
2001 27.6 3 1
2002 26.8 2 3
2003 25.1 2 7
2004 26.4 2 4
2005 28.5 4 3
2006 27.7 3 3
2007 26.7 2 2
2008 27.6 2 2
2009 28.6 3 1
2010 26.5 2 4
2011 27.5 3 2
2012 27.0 2 2
2013 27.6 3 3
2014 26.6 3 3
2015 27.3 1 1
2016 27.6 3 2
2017 27.8 3 2
2018 28.5 2 1
2019 27.0 1 1
2020 28.2 4 4
2021 28.7 5 2 |
Five players in their 30's on the All WNBA teams is the most since 1998. Average age of the All WNBA team is also the highest since 1998.
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Most people hate poetry
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007 Posts: 7365 Location: Underground
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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