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elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 02/13/17 11:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

who has Drake beat to get them ranked?....Gonzaga is 21-4 with wins against Stanford and Northwestern....


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 02/14/17 12:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:
who has Drake beat to get them ranked?....Gonzaga is 21-4 with wins against Stanford and Northwestern....


Northwestern doesn't earn you much. Iowa is a better win for Drake. Stanford is a far better win than anything on Drake's resume.

BUT, and it's a big BUT. . .

Gonzaga also has two horrific losses to RPI 200+ teams (including #292 Pepperdine). Drake has no losses even to any 100+ teams, and all but 1 of its losses are to top 50 teams. I expect that's why Drake is higher ranked. Also worth noting that Drake's RPI and SOS are both quite a bit better than Gonzaga's.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 02/14/17 12:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Durantula wrote:
linkster wrote:
It will be interesting if the NCAA still thinks that Maryland is still the 8th best team. They say that the RPI and SOS are 2 of various ratings/factors they look at but in practice they never seem to mention anything but those 2 numbers.


Isn't putting them 8th making use of other ratings/factors? Their RPI is in the teens and their SOS is almost 100 so if it was straight RPI they'd be like a 4-5 seed.


They plainly consider other things. Notre Dame is another example. ND has remained #2 in the RPI ( were briefly #3) even as they have been 6th and 7th in the committee rankings. It works both directions. ND is ranked lower than their RPI, Maryland is much higher than theirs.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 02/14/17 4:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The committee faces 2 tough decisions. Who the last 5 at-large teams will be and how to seed the top 16. The problem with the first is that there are 350+ teams in DI and the teams competing for the last 5 spots usually have few common opponents. RPI & SOS is a very good tool for dealing with that.

As far as seeding the top 16 let's not forget that the whole purpose of seeding is to separate the best teams so they don't face each other until late in the tournament. Using seeding for an ulterior motive corrupts the system. "penalizing" MD for a weak OOC schedule corrupts the seeding process. Besides, take a look at MSSt's schedule and find all the elite level OOC games they scheduled. It's a very very short list. They did however schedule less mediocre teams than did MD. So while some are saying that the NCAA is encouraging teams to schedule more games against top competition, what they are really saying is schedule more games against mid-low range P5 teams because that's what MSSt did. It's the secret of scamming the RPI.

One benchmark to measure elite teams it is in how they do against UConn. The Huskies' level of performance varies less than any other elite team in the country. And of all their elite opponents, Maryland competed the best. They were within 5 pts of UConn with 3.5 mins left in the game. While that's not definitive it tells me more than all the wins MSSt had against RPI 30-80 teams, which is the key to their RPI & SOS rating.

The fans of the three remaining 1 seed contenders (Baylor, S Carolina, Notre Dame, Fla St. & Texas) will be more concerned with getting Maryland in their region than they will any other team other than the two of them that get 2 seeds. And that's because MD is as good as any of them. And not acknowledging that because of some flawed algorithm is simply pig-headedness.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 02/14/17 5:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:

As far as seeding the top 16 let's not forget that the whole purpose of seeding is to separate the best teams so they don't face each other until late in the tournament. Using seeding for an ulterior motive corrupts the system. "penalizing" MD for a weak OOC schedule corrupts the seeding process.
.


They're not being "penalized". Their shitty schedule creates significant doubt about how good they actually are. All there is is the so-called "eye test" but it's a lot easier to look good against lousy opponents. The committee has to ask what Maryland's record would be if they had played in the ACC or PAC12 or SEC. I expect they conclude the same thing I do - they'd have more than one loss.

When your schedule stinks and your entire claim to a #1 seed is "well our margin of loss to UConn was slightly less than that of these other teams", you don't deserve a number one seed.

They made their own bed, now they have to sleep in it.

Oh, and I 'm not worried about Miss St. That will take care of itself in upcoming games vs aTm, KY, Tenn and the SEC tourney, probably vs SCar. If they win out, then they will have earned it.

As an aside, your notion that MD's UConn game was materially closer than everyone else's is nonsense. To start with, FSU only lost by two points. They, not Maryland were the closest. And while I haven't checked every game, ND was only down 6 with 5:50 to go and 8 with 3:30 to go. You think that insignificant difference proves anything about Maryland? Ridiculous.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 02/14/17 7:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
They're not being "penalized". Their shitty schedule creates significant doubt about how good they actually are.


Yes there is doubt, but better some doubt than none. S Car, Stan and Notre Dame losing to Tenn leaves NO doubt. Rolling Eyes lol
And from what I read and see in both poll rankings, the media and the coaches say that they ARE being penalized. The media generally accepts that MD is an elite team and that the only reason they aren't a one seed is because of their OOC schedule. Massey's algorithm has them 3rd in the country and their ratings factor in strength of schedule. IMO MSSt also has played a shitty schedule as far as elite level teams. They have faced 2, (THAT's 2) currently ranked teams up to this point in their season. Only one OOC. That shouldn't earn them a one seed either but no one mentions that.

Quote:
The committee has to ask what Maryland's record would be if they had played in the ACC or PAC12 or SEC. I expect they conclude the same thing I do - they'd have more than one loss.


The SEC? If MD played in the SEC then it's likely that a few top level SEC teams would also have one more loss. Same with the ACC & the P12.

Quote:
Oh, and I 'm not worried about Miss St. That will take care of itself in upcoming games vs aTm, KY, Tenn and the SEC tourney, probably vs SCar. If they win out, then they will have earned it.


TAMU? KY? Tenn? All mediocre teams with whom a putative 1 seed should wipe the floor. And the committee usually doesn't make a big deal of the tournaments. Remember 2001 when UConn and ND tied for the regular season BE title and UConn won the BET? The "committee", in their wisdom, made ND a higher seed. That was the year I learned that the committee decides whatever they want and then picks which "policy and practice" suits their decision.

Quote:
As an aside, your notion that MD's UConn game was materially closer than everyone else's is nonsense. To start with, FSU only lost by two points. They, not Maryland were the closest. And while I haven't checked every game, ND was only down 6 with 5:50 to go and 8 with 3:30 to go. You think that insignificant difference proves anything about Maryland? Ridiculous.


My point is that it's a better measure of a team than how they play against some RPI 50 team. And being down 8 may not be measurably worse but 8 is still more than 6. Plus, UConn was a much better team at MD in late December than they were in their first game at Fla St. Sure, it's just an eye test but I simply don't see how watching MSSt playing Arkansas vs MD playing MD Eastern Shore is any better.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 02/14/17 7:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If Tenn can beat Stanford, ND and SCar, they can CERTAINLY beat Maryland as well.

The media way overvalues record. You lose you drop; you play nobody and therefore keep winning, you just keep creeping up the list as others playing real opponents lose. It has nothing to do with any actual analysis that you belong that high. Patsy schedules assure you'll be overrated. Which is why the committee ignores the polls.

I'd be happy to see Maryland in ND's bracket. Frese has beaten McGraw once ever, and that was ten years ago. ND's biggest problem is height, but Maryland has no height advantage. I'd rather play MD than Tenn.

You want eye test in common opponents? Maryland struggled mightily to eke out a win vs Louisville. Notre Dame rolled Louisville. And we're not talking an insignificant single 3 pt basket difference like you're relying on.


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: 02/14/17 9:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How well a team does against UConn by itself, or as a main factor, is irrelevant, as Stanford ultimately wasn't the best non-UConn team in the country two seasons ago.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 02/14/17 10:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
If Tenn can beat Stanford, ND and SCar, they can CERTAINLY beat Maryland as well.

The media way overvalues record. You lose you drop; you play nobody and therefore keep winning, you just keep creeping up the list as others playing real opponents lose. It has nothing to do with any actual analysis that you belong that high. Patsy schedules assure you'll be overrated. Which is why the committee ignores the polls.

I'd be happy to see Maryland in ND's bracket. Frese has beaten McGraw once ever, and that was ten years ago. ND's biggest problem is height, but Maryland has no height advantage. I'd rather play MD than Tenn.

You want eye test in common opponents? Maryland struggled mightily to eke out a win vs Louisville. Notre Dame rolled Louisville. And we're not talking an insignificant single 3 pt basket difference like you're relying on.


Just 2 points Art. First, Louisville lost at Notre Dame and lost to Maryland at home. You also seemed to conveniently forgotten that Hines-Allen was injured at Notre Dame and played but 1 minute. I guess it slipped your mind.

Second, as for "If Tenn can beat Stanford, ND and SCar, they can CERTAINLY beat Maryland as well" I would ask how Stan, ND and S Car can lose to a team that lost to Penn State, V Tech, Mississippi, Auburn, Georgia & TAMU? I watched the ND-Tenn game and Tenn didn't win that game. The choking of the Irish could be heard all the way to Connecticut. And while Stanford can plead jet lag S Carolina lost at home to an 9 loss (so far) team.














i




Last edited by linkster on 02/14/17 10:37 pm; edited 2 times in total
ArtBest23



Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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PostPosted: 02/14/17 10:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
If Tenn can beat Stanford, ND and SCar, they can CERTAINLY beat Maryland as well.

The media way overvalues record. You lose you drop; you play nobody and therefore keep winning, you just keep creeping up the list as others playing real opponents lose. It has nothing to do with any actual analysis that you belong that high. Patsy schedules assure you'll be overrated. Which is why the committee ignores the polls.

I'd be happy to see Maryland in ND's bracket. Frese has beaten McGraw once ever, and that was ten years ago. ND's biggest problem is height, but Maryland has no height advantage. I'd rather play MD than Tenn.

You want eye test in common opponents? Maryland struggled mightily to eke out a win vs Louisville. Notre Dame rolled Louisville. And we're not talking an insignificant single 3 pt basket difference like you're relying on.


Just 2 points Art. First, Louisville lost at Notre Dame and lost to Maryland at home. You also seemed to conveniently forgotten that Hines-Allen was injured at Notre Dame and played but 1 minute. I guess it slipped your mind.

Second, as for "If Tenn can beat Stanford, ND and SCar, they can CERTAINLY beat Maryland as well" I would ask how Stan, ND and S Car can lose to a team that lost to Penn State, V Tech, Mississippi, Auburn, Georgia & TAMU? I watched the ND-Tenn game and the choking of the Irish could be heard all the way to Connecticut. And while Stanford can plead jet lag S Carolina lost at home to an 9 loss (so far) team.
i


And of course Maryland has no upset losses because they've played no one with a pulse.

Had they played Tenn, Duke, NCSt, Miss St, FSU, Texas, aTm, etc, they would have multiple losses.


Durantula



Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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PostPosted: 02/14/17 11:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creme has Tennessee as a 5 seed in his new bracket. I guess that's fair. They would face Baylor in the Sweet 16 if they won out and Baylor already beat them by 22 in Knoxville, so not an ideal matchup for them.

Creme has Maryland as a 2 seed in UConn's region. I still don't think Maryland should be a 2 or 3 seed with that low of a SOS because of the bad precedent it sets, but this shows how much the matchup matters more than seed. I'm guessing Maryland would rather be a 3 or 4 seed and not in UConn's region, than to get a 2 seed and have to potentially play UConn in Bridgeport, not exactly the most neutral of neutral site games.


linkster



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PostPosted: 02/14/17 11:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creme has Notre Dame & Louisville in the west while no ACC 1-4 seeds are in Bridgeport, a no no to the NCAA.

An odd coincidence is that the Massey nos. 1,2 & 3 offensive teams are all in Bridgeport. I guess after the Miss St fiasco last year he didn't want to expose those mighty defensive teams. A game between Washington and Maryland might have an O/U of 175+.

edited to add "offensive" to the first sentence of the 2nd paragraph.


elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 02/14/17 11:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SOS?......if a team plays a top 10 at their place and wins it should mean something....and if they go into the hell and brimstone of a tourney with two other top teams WILLINGLY (Michigan and Florida state) shouldn't they be given some props for playing strong opponents.....everybody can schedule cupcakes...they also scheduled another Pac12 team plus Northwestern....

well, we'll see.....


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: 02/15/17 12:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:
SOS?......if a team plays a top 10 at their place and wins it should mean something....and if they go into the hell and brimstone of a tourney with two other top teams WILLINGLY (Michigan and Florida state) shouldn't they be given some props for playing strong opponents.....everybody can schedule cupcakes...they also scheduled another Pac12 team plus Northwestern....

well, we'll see.....


I'm going to say beating Stanford is cancelled out by losing to Pepperdine & Pacific and the cupcakes Gonzaga did play in non-conference skewed their non-conference SOS so much that it doesn't look good despite having played Michigan, Florida St, and Stanford.


Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 02/20/17 2:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Week 16:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/16/seasontype/2

Same Top 4 as last week
ND up 2 to #5 with close victories over Clemson & SYR
TEX up 2 to #6 with victory over FSU and loss to OKLA Confused
SC down 1 to #7 with losses to UConn & Mizz
FSU down 4 to #8 with losses to TEX & VA
STAN up 2 to #8-T with 2 wins over CAL
WAS down 2 to #11 after loss to UCLA
UCLA up 3 to #15 after wins over the Washingtons
OKLA up 3 to #16 after edging out TEX
NCSU down 3 to #18 after loss to WAKE
DEP down 2 to #19 after loss to MARQ
Drake up 4 to #21 after wins over venerable clubs Indiana St & Loyola-Chicago
KEN up 4 to #22 after lossless week
TEM up 3 to #23 after win over USF
Mizz up 2 to #24 after win over SC
MICH down 5 to #25 after losses to IND & MSU



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 02/20/17 2:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Why is Stanford ahead of Ore St?


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