RebKell's Junkie Boards

[linkster]

There is more to being a legitimate contender that how good a team is when they play their "A" game. A team has to win 5 games in a row. (I don't count the 1st round) In those 5 games a team is likely to only play their "A" game at most 3 times. And most teams play one B- or C game. If they play a C game against an opponent who plays an A game they lose.
I look for teams that win their games games decisively. And avoid teams that too often need 4th period comebacks to beat mediocre teams or who collapse late to lose or barely win.

UConn is truly consistent, with Baylor, Maryland & Florida St the three closest to UConn as far as being consistent and winning decisively.

The rest of the field is deep with teams that are good enough to beat most anyone with their A game but who don'y play that well often enough.

I think Tenn & tOSU are wild card teams that almost certainly won't make the FF but who could end up as spoilers. Then there are at least a dozen, any of whom could go on a roll like teams did last year. It's impossible to do anything but guess who those teams will be.

[J-Spoon]

The reason I think Ohio St is more of a contender than some other better teams (that I did not list) is that sometimes a great player can carry a team in the right moment. Even if it hasn't happened yet for Ohio ST a player like Mitchell (or Deshields or Plum) can elevate their play and then you have a Louisville in the McCoughtry days, Delaware the last season with EDD (don't remember how far the gout in the tourny) or Jackie Stiles team situation. And in the case of Mitchell (and Deshields and Plum) there are other talented players on those teams as well, so while Ohio St hasn't lived up to potential I can still see them catching fire in a way other teams might not simply because Mitchell is a transcendent talent.

[Phil]