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How Many Career Points will Kelsey Plum End Up With? |
2418-3000 |
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22% |
[ 2 ] |
3001-3283 |
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22% |
[ 2 ] |
3284-3393 |
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33% |
[ 3 ] |
3394-3667 |
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22% |
[ 2 ] |
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Total Votes : 9 |
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awhom111
Joined: 19 Nov 2014 Posts: 4255
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Posted: 11/10/16 11:45 pm ::: How Many Career Points will Kelsey Plum End Up With? |
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Simple enough question.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8249 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 11/11/16 12:02 am ::: |
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It would be helpful if you state how many points she has now. |
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Jet Jaguar
Joined: 11 Feb 2014 Posts: 1111
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Posted: 11/11/16 2:49 am ::: |
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Plum currently has 2,417 points through her Junior year
_________________ Oderint dum metuant - Let them hate, so long as they fear
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1275
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Posted: 11/11/16 9:19 am ::: |
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She'll have 3341 when she finishes.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 11/11/16 11:31 am ::: |
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I guess whoever voted under 3000 thinks she will get injured.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63872
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Posted: 11/11/16 12:04 pm ::: |
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It's interesting that Plum took the exact same number of shots (544) in her freshman and sophomore years. In her junior year, the number of shots bumped up to 760. All other things being equal, I'd expect her to maintain that junior level output, and most likely playing at least a couple less games.
I'll put her at 35 games * 24 pts/gm output (840 pts) for her senior year as a liberal guess. That puts her at about 3257 for career.
So breaking down the choices
2418-3000 ~ Disappointing senior year
3001-3283 ~ Most likely outcome
3284-3393 ~ Great senior year
3394-3667 ~ Irrational exuberance
I had no idea Plum's ato numbers were so abhorrent until I looked into it now. She was 154/159 in her junior year, even though it was her first year playing PG in earnest. If she's serious about becoming a PG at the next level, she'll have to show a stark improvement her senior year. At least get into 1.5 ato territory.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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awhom111
Joined: 19 Nov 2014 Posts: 4255
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Posted: 12/24/16 1:39 pm ::: |
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After non-conference play, Plum sits at 2811, leaving her needing to score 583 more points to surpass Stiles. As usual, I forgot to pay attention when adding the last poll option, but it seems unlikely that anyone would have picked her to surpass Maravich.
Washington should have a minimum of 20 games left, which would require 29.15ppg to break the record. The maximum number of games possible would be 28, which would only need a pace of slightly above 20.82ppg. The most realistic number of games is somewhere between that.
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PickledGinger
Joined: 04 Oct 2013 Posts: 1371
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Posted: 12/24/16 4:08 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
I had no idea Plum's ato numbers were so abhorrent until I looked into it now. She was 154/159 in her junior year, even though it was her first year playing PG in earnest. If she's serious about becoming a PG at the next level, she'll have to show a stark improvement her senior year. At least get into 1.5 ato territory. |
Through the non-conference schedule, she has 73 assists (5.6 per game) to 26 turnovers (2.0 per game) for a 2.8 ratio.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63872
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Posted: 12/24/16 4:16 pm ::: |
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PickledGinger wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
I had no idea Plum's ato numbers were so abhorrent until I looked into it now. She was 154/159 in her junior year, even though it was her first year playing PG in earnest. If she's serious about becoming a PG at the next level, she'll have to show a stark improvement her senior year. At least get into 1.5 ato territory. |
Through the non-conference schedule, she has 73 assists (5.6 per game) to 26 turnovers (2.0 per game) for a 2.8 ratio. |
That's definitely the improvement I was looking for. I hope she can keep it up through conference play.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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awhom111
Joined: 19 Nov 2014 Posts: 4255
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Posted: 12/28/16 12:41 am ::: |
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Accounting for her 21 points tonight, here are the averages she would need depending on games played in order to surpass Stiles.
Code: |
19 29.6
20 28.1
21 26.8
22 25.5
23 24.4
24 23.4
25 22.5
26 21.6
27 20.8 |
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awhom111
Joined: 19 Nov 2014 Posts: 4255
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Posted: 12/31/16 12:47 am ::: |
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44 points is certainly going to change the numbers a bit.
Here are the updated averages that would be needed to break the record:
Code: |
18 28.8
19 27.3
20 25.9
21 24.7
22 23.5
23 22.5
24 21.6
25 20.7
26 19.9
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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bcdawg04
Joined: 12 Apr 2016 Posts: 575 Location: Seattle
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Posted: 12/31/16 1:54 am ::: |
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Her third 44-point game of the year. She's ridiculous.
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Ay Mate
Joined: 12 Nov 2016 Posts: 1280
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Posted: 12/31/16 8:11 pm ::: |
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San Antonio has the 1st pick in the draft. They really need a post player. Do they go with Coates from SC? Or do they pick arguably the best player in the upcoming draft Kelsey Plum?
Do the Stars keep both Moriah Jefferson and their last years starting PG (Robinson right? I forget her name). McBride will also be back from a season missed with injury. Would a starting lineup of Jefferson, Robinson, McBride, Currie and Coates work? I never really pay any attention to San Antonio and don't know what position McBride plays. I think they'll be better than last year.
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awhom111
Joined: 19 Nov 2014 Posts: 4255
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Posted: 01/01/17 7:54 pm ::: |
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Update after today:
Code: |
17 29.2
18 27.6
19 26.1
20 24.8
21 23.6
22 22.5
23 21.6
24 20.7
25 19.8
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63872
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Posted: 01/02/17 4:49 pm ::: |
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Geno would have his team face-guarding Plum and let somebody else try to beat 'em. Unless other teams consider doing the same, Plum will most likely take enough shots to routinely put up 20+ ppg.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 01/02/17 5:01 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
Geno would have his team face-guarding Plum and let somebody else try to beat 'em. Unless other teams consider doing the same, Plum will most likely take enough shots to routinely put up 20+ ppg. |
That is what most teams do - put their best defender on her and bring lots of help. She's still doing what she does.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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SDHoops
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 Posts: 1183
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Posted: 01/02/17 5:12 pm ::: |
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Don't get too caught up in the college hype. Remember when Jimmer was the next big thing because he was averaging 30 a game with several 40 point games? Remember when there were those fans who said Banham was gonna prove people wrong and be that scorer at the WNBA level? Remember Kelly Mazzante, the big time scorer with some height for a guard who some thought might be a force at the next level? Plum will make a team no doubt and she could contribute to a team. But sure shot superstar or even big player right away, remains to be seen. She'd be better off going to a team like Minnesota and hitting some big shots a la Rogers to get some reps rather than go to a terrible team where she's a priority. When I watch her play, she works hard as it is to get her looks. Can you imagine guarding the likes of Skylar Diggins, then come down and try to get the ball (let alone an open look) then once you do try to get an open shot? Players like Fowles, Griner etc will be waiting in the paint for someone a foot shorter to try a floater and players like Augustus, McCoughtry, etc. could be checking someone like her off of a switch. I'm not saying it's not possible it just seems to be there's this sense of "she's tearing it up in college so she's easily going to do it in the W." A generously listed 5'8" guard, she could be a Hammon like player who can hit the three and weave her way to the basket with circus shots but I mean, isn't that a rarity?
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awhom111
Joined: 19 Nov 2014 Posts: 4255
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Posted: 01/07/17 1:09 am ::: |
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Obviously I might feel differently if this was my team, but I miss the version of Kelsey that would shoot regardless of how good of a choice it was. Her 34 points tonight push her up to 2932.
Here is the updated table:
Code: |
16 28.9
17 27.2
18 25.7
19 24.3
20 23.1
21 22.0
22 21.0
23 20.1
24 19.3
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Hoops9092
Joined: 04 Nov 2008 Posts: 1639
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Posted: 01/07/17 11:01 am ::: |
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It's most likely Kelsey has 20 games left. She should be able to do what she wants against the Pac-12 guards.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63872
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12572 Location: Dallas , Texas
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Posted: 01/08/17 8:06 pm ::: |
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39 tonight!
_________________ 3-Time WNBA Champion-3-Time National Champion-4-Time Olympic Champion....And Yes DT "We Got Confeti" lol
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63872
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Posted: 01/08/17 9:18 pm ::: |
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WNBA 09 wrote: |
39 tonight! |
If my math is right, only 29 pts away from the 3000 pt club. I wonder if ESPN will pick up the next game?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12572 Location: Dallas , Texas
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Posted: 01/08/17 9:41 pm ::: |
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At this rate she should surpass jackie around 14 games from now.
_________________ 3-Time WNBA Champion-3-Time National Champion-4-Time Olympic Champion....And Yes DT "We Got Confeti" lol
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