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CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
Posts: 1054
Location: PA


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PostPosted: 05/20/16 2:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

#Occasionalwnbafan wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
SCGamecock wrote:
Nixtreefan wrote:
Don't accuse me of something you don't know. It is my opinion, and in my opinion SC are just tall and had a lot of tall bodies against teams that had no height. Against teams that could shoot and run they were out hustled. They lost to Syracuse Wink


Who also played in the national championship game.

You bring up the Syracuse game without realizing that it wasn't SC's defense that failed them in that game.. it was their offense. SC allowed Syracuse's zone to dictate them offensively. SC lost that game because they forgot about their post players... not because they don't play hard enough on defense. Wink


They lost because their guard play stinks. And predicting championship calibre improvement at the guard positions based on some amazing transformation by Bianca Ceuvas or a miraculous rescue by a freshman seems somewhat, shall we say, optimistic?


I think people are over rating ND a little, Turner is inconsistent, doesn’t take over games like she could, and Allen isn’t a big time scorer. It sounds like they will be depending on a freshman in Young to step in and take over. They have question marks at both, the shooting guard, and small forward position next year.


You mean a sophomore player who was playing with a shoulder injury was inconsistent? How shocking!

Allen is a PG. She isn't supposed to be a big time scorer when you have a guard lineup with the likes of Cable, Marina Mabrey, and Ogunbowale.

ND has question marks at shooting guard? Are you on drugs? Did you see Marina Mabrey against UConn? They had to switch their lockdown senior defensive guard onto a FRESHMAN guard playing in her eighth game in order to stop her. You have two freshmen guards who averaged 11.4 ppg and 10.7 ppg, with ND adding the Indiana all time scoring record holder, and you are suggesting that their position is a question mark? Huh?


CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
Posts: 1054
Location: PA


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PostPosted: 05/20/16 3:08 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:


You, like many Irish fans like to hang your hopes on those two based on what they did against UConn, but fail to bring up the less than stellar numbers they put up when it counted. I just looked up that Stanford game box score and noticed they combined for 13 points, 3 rb's, 2 assists and 3 turnovers. This after an entire season of experience. Of course if they can shoot 86% from the arc as they did against UConn then Notre dame may go undefeated. Very Happy
.


You forget to mention that Marina Mabrey and Ogunbowale weren't even starters for ND while 2 of the 3 UConn players I mentioned were starters for UConn.

You use one game against ND's freshmen. Is that really fair? I used the season stats for ND in order to balance things out. The reason I bring up the UConn game was because it was a big game. I was comparing that to UConn's bigger games.

As I said in response to another post mentioning ND's game vs Stanford...How did UConn do the last time they played Stanford? Was it indicative of how their overall season was that year? Well?

For UConn, I mentioned NINE games. You mentioned ONE for ND. Is that a fair comparison?

Just so that I won't be comparing just 1 ND game to UConn's 9, here are some more against ranked opponents:

Against DePaul, Marina Mabrey and Ogunbowale both had 16 points.

Against Tennessee Marina Mabrey had 13 points and Ogunbowale had 14 points.

Against Louisville Marina Mabrey had only 2 points, but Ogunbowale had 15 points.

Against Oregon State, it flipped, with Marina Mabrey scoring 13 and Ogunbowale having just 6.

Against FSU Marina Mabrey had 13 points and Ogunbowale had 11 points.

I'd say that body of work is a better indication of how a pair of FRESHMEN will be moving forward than one game vs Stanford (as I said, what happened the last time UConn played Stanford? Right...)




Last edited by CBiebel on 05/20/16 3:37 am; edited 1 time in total
CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
Posts: 1054
Location: PA


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PostPosted: 05/20/16 3:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

bballjunkie wrote:


Was there a reason you left out the Miss State game lol

Against Miss State KLS had 21, Nurse had 6, Williams had 7, rest 16

Btw not sure what point you are making, the question is how many did Ogunbowale and Mabrey give up.... A lot more than the Uconn players and the reason they played less as NDs season wound down.


I went with Elite Eight on wards. I went with top level OOC teams (ND, Maryland, and USC), the only good team in their conference, and Elite Eight and further teams.

Adding one more to that list would suggest more that the Sweet Sixteen was an outlier. One game is hardly proof against an overall general analysis since you have the "on any given day" aspect of the sport.


CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
Posts: 1054
Location: PA


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PostPosted: 05/20/16 3:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
UConn still has three USA Basketball high school national team players


ND has at least 4 (Turner, Allen, Mabrey, Ogunbowale) coming back. Ali Patberg (out with ACL this year) was on one of the 2015 teams. That makes 5 overall.


CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
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Location: PA


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PostPosted: 05/20/16 3:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

bballjunkie wrote:


Btw not sure what point you are making, the question is how many did Ogunbowale and Mabrey give up.... A lot more than the Uconn players and the reason they played less as NDs season wound down.


How exactly do you go back into the stats and say how much individual players "give up" in a given game? I don't see that in the stats.

Also, remember you are talking about two FRESHMEN here. As the saying goes, "the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores..."

ND actually had a lot of hardships this year (backup PG being injured before the season even started, Turner's nagging shoulder injury that kept her out of a few games, and Reimer at first injured and then leaving the team). Considering those things, ND's season was amazing (Stanford game non included, obviously). Even with the Stanford game, it was fitting in the pattern of the "ND coming from behind" game. The only difference was that Stanford was both able to hold onto the ball for longer possessions and was shooting extremely well.


CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
Posts: 1054
Location: PA


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PostPosted: 05/20/16 3:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:


If anyone wants to dismiss UConn by comparing UConn 2016 with UConn 2017 I respond by asking that you compare the other 2017 squads with the 2016 UConn team. Everyone comes up short. There may not be even one 30 point MOV all season. The horror!



Wow, I think you are completely missing the point. It's about who is returning, not comparing teams to 2016.

Generally speaking a team that is in the top 5 that returns 6 of it's top 7 scorers will do better than a team that loses it's top 3 scorers, especially when those 3 scorers account for 48.8% of their points.

This has nothing to do with "comparing 2017 to 2016" (That's a red herring on your part). This is about who is returning with not only experience, but experience doing well.

It doesn't matter how ND's team next year would do against UConn's team last year. What matters is how ND's team next year will do against UConn's team next year and frankly, based on the stats that we have to date, it doesn't look good for UConn.

Sorry. I know you guys have gotten used to have a huge talent differential vs other teams, but now things look like they are evening out, possibly even favoring other teams.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 05/20/16 4:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

double post




Last edited by linkster on 05/20/16 4:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 05/20/16 4:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wow, I think you are completely missing the point. It's about who is returning, not comparing teams to 2016.

UConn has a lot of talent returning. They simply were standing too close to a supernova for it to show. Wink

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Generally speaking a team that is in the top 5 that returns 6 of it's top 7 scorers will do better than a team that loses it's top 3 scorers, especially when those 3 scorers account for 48.8% of their points.

Generally that's true, but the 2016 UConn senior class was arguably the best of all time. You are comparing a 6 of 7 that couldn't get past the S16 game vs a team that steamrolled through the NCAA's. I'm not suggesting that UConn isn't going to lose games or that it's unlikely another team will win the NC but this idea of them "returning to the pack" is wishful thinking if by "pack" you mean 6-8 teams. I just don't see UConn entering the NCAA's as less than the 5th seeded team.


This has nothing to do with "comparing 2017 to 2016" (That's a red herring on your part). This is about who is returning with not only experience, but experience doing well.

True. But how about experience playing well in the NCAA's? How did those freshmen perform against Stanford? Where was their deadly shooting and that great defense under pressure? And you say the ND freshmen had more experience?

KLS 24min/g
Collier 17min/g
vs
mabrey 19m/g
ogunbowale 19m/g
Patberg - 0.0m/g

Sorry, I just don't see it. And as far as scoring, your point would be valid if the seniors were forced to score because the rest of the team couldn't, but that's simply not true. The truth was that the three seniors were so efficient together that any other option paled in comparison. That in no way meant that Nurse, Williams, Collier and Samuelson were inept at scoring. Geno, unlike other coaches, believes in shrinking his roster in big games. Some have criticised him for not expanding his bench more, but who can argue with his results? And if ever a coach had a reason to focus his offense on a few players it was last year at UConn. Samuelson and Collier are both proven high volume shooters and high percentage scorers. The other 2 projected starters, Nurse and Williams have also proven to be effective scorers. I will admit that there is a question about how they will score now that other teams will be focussing on them but it's plain to me that UConn will put 5 players on the court who all can score and have all scored. Unlike most other teams, UConn creates it's offense by moving the ball until they find a player at a spot where she can score. last year that was ridiculously easy. Next year it won't be that easy but the projected starters have all shown an ability to score from different places on the court. They will get good looks and they will score.

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It doesn't matter how ND's team next year would do against UConn's team last year. What matters is how ND's team next year will do against UConn's team next year and frankly, based on the stats that we have to date, it doesn't look good for UConn.

Again, a fair statement. But everyone's forecast of UConn 2017 starts with comparing UConn 2017 with UConn 2016. UConn, they say, will fall because they aren't UConn 2016. Sure, they look vulnerable in that comparison. My point is that so does everyone else.

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Sorry. I know you guys have gotten used to have a huge talent differential vs other teams, but now things look like they are evening out, possibly even favoring other teams.

I agree that the last 3 years have been a mismatch but it's not just talent. A lot of it had to do with the way UConn out-executes most other teams.

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Last year I was one of the few that pointed out that Tenn would flounder until late in the season because they had to replace 3 seniors. Others said that the talent of those who were coming in or returning from injury made the loss of 3 seniors irrelevant. I think my view was the correct one. Tenn looked pretty bad till the NCAA's came around and then they made it further than even Notre Dame. UConn is facing a similar situation. But they are starting at a much higher plateau than the LV's were last year. IMO they have more talent, more committed talent and they have a better approach and better coaching. If UConn had been a 10-20th ranked team before Stewart/Tuck/Jefferson arrived I would agree that the party is over and UConn would slide back into the pack. But UConn had a top 4 team long before they arrived and while next year's leaders have yet to emerge and there needs to be a new chemistry formed, history tells us that like the great thoroughbred Carryback, they will be along in time.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 05/20/16 4:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
bballjunkie wrote:


Btw not sure what point you are making, the question is how many did Ogunbowale and Mabrey give up.... A lot more than the Uconn players and the reason they played less as NDs season wound down.


How exactly do you go back into the stats and say how much individual players "give up" in a given game? I don't see that in the stats.

Also, remember you are talking about two FRESHMEN here. As the saying goes, "the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores..."

ND actually had a lot of hardships this year (backup PG being injured before the season even started, Turner's nagging shoulder injury that kept her out of a few games, and Reimer at first injured and then leaving the team). Considering those things, ND's season was amazing (Stanford game non included, obviously). Even with the Stanford game, it was fitting in the pattern of the "ND coming from behind" game. The only difference was that Stanford was both able to hold onto the ball for longer possessions and was shooting extremely well.


The freshmen's defense isn't in the stats. All you have to do is go watch the Stanford game. Those 2 reminded me of the time my uncle butchered a chicken by chopping off it's head and then let it run around headless for a minute or so, flapping it's wings as it ran around aimlessly. UConn's freshmen don't play if they can't defend. MM is different, she lets them make mistakes and learn from them. Two different approaches and both seem to work. But I'd say that both Samuelson and Collier are further along as defenders than the Irish duo.

And yeah, Notre Dame dealt with injuries. But UConn lost their only center until almost New Years and Tuck dealt with a balky knee all season. Fortunately, Tuck was healthy at the end but Butler never caught up from nearly 3 months of missed practices and was almost useless. Add to that the loss of starter Samuelson in the FF. (of course ND never made it that far) UConn just had more alternatives to use than Notre Dame.


bballjunkie



Joined: 12 Aug 2014
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PostPosted: 05/21/16 8:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Biebel you are just manipulating numbers for your homerism. Any rational p
Basketball fan saw for their own eyes that Uconn including their freshmen were far superior on the defensive end. As the year progressed Uconns offense was amazing and that was also due to the progression and inclusion of KLS one of their freshmen. It had nothing to do with who they played as they beat teams before they were in that zone. Once they hit that zone, there was no one that could come close.

Geno gets the best out of his players, those that have the elite skill rise when he challenges them, and they always progress. You do not see many teams make the kind of improvement that Uconn does.

Looking forward to next year as I do any year but Uconn will be Uconn as long as Geno is there.


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