RebKell's Junkie Boards

[beknighted]

The Zahui B. and Loyd news over the past few days makes me wonder if we're going to start to see more players who are eligible both to keep playing college ball and to go to the WNBA declare for the draft.

With the Russian money, the very top women's players have something akin to the rationale that men's players have for leaving early: They can get paid real money to play. While Prince sort of set a precedent in 2009, it obviously didn't have much impact. Seeing two top players do it at once this year makes me think we'll see this more often than we might have before, and I wonder if some players might think about the Prince route - leave before you're eligible for the WNBA, get a year (or two) overseas, then enter the draft.

But the bigger question in my mind is how even a small, but steady outflow of players before their eligibility would run out would affect the game. Stewart, for instance, doesn't have much to prove in college now (and neither did Maya Moore before her); if the top players did start to leave, even in small numbers, how would that affect competitive balance? (Just think if Geno were losing Stewart and Jefferson this year, in addition to the players who are leaving already.) I don't really have an answer to this, but I think it's worth considering.

[NoDakSt]

Besides Russia, I'm guessing the other nations that pay significant money to their star womens players are China and Turkey (just looking at who ends up going where). I think it very feasible that top US players opt out of the WNBA and take the Taurasi option to just play overseas and save wear and tear. A situation I see likely is that the WNBA becomes the feeder program where young professionals prove their worth and Mettle and if the top EurAsian programs like what they see, they come a calling. In that scenario, it might make since to leave collegiate ranks early to get some exposure skill development in the WNBA so that they can access lucrative pro contracts at an earlier age.

[Luuuc]

This type of decision would only really affect the best of the best players, right? Meaning, it is unlikely to be causing large numbers of premature departures every year?
Those big overseas $$ seem to be less prevalent as well, both in terms of size of the contracts, and the number of such contracts.

Either way, I expect that it will level out into some kind of equilibrium situation. If more athletes leave early each year, then more get recruited each year, so the turnover becomes maybe a 3.5 year cycle rather than a 4 year cycle.
Maybe the end result of that is an even greater imbalance of talent in college basketball, because every year there is on average a slightly higher number of places to fill at the elite teams, so they will consume a larger proportion of the top high school players.

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[pilight]

I don't think the Epiphanny Prince/Schuye LaRue route will be popular. Untested rookies don't command large salaries overseas.

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I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[beknighted]

[pilight]

[ClayK]

One other factor to consider: The mayfly lifespan of a professional athlete.

A nice career, making six figures a year, awaits those good enough to play in the WNBA.

Even with a college degree, it takes time and some luck to make six figures in another career.

So, in your early 20s, you can look ahead, as an elite player, to ten years, maybe 15, of making a substantial amount of money playing basketball (as opposed to working in an office). If you stay in school when you could leave, you lose one of those years, and money you will never get back.

And if you get hurt at 25, you've lost 20%, say, of your potential income from basketball.

And of course it's hard to go back and get your degree, and many don't do it. It's also pretty hard to earn close to $100,000 as a 22-year-old.

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Oṃ T�re Tutt�re Ture Sv�h�

[kool-aide]

How many first round pick talent meets the eligibility requirements to enter the W early? I don't think it is a large enough group to impact the NCAA game overall. And I foresee even fewer American players leaving for overseas before they're WNBA eligible.

I do think Deshields will be the next potential #1 pick to do it. Unless she really doesn't want to play for the team with the #1 pick.

[ArtBest23]