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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 14550
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 Posted: 02/27/15 2:52 pm ::: |
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| ucbart wrote: |
| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
| ucbart wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
Oregon St is still a 7 hour drive from Spokane so I don't believe they will bring more than 300 fans. From an attendance perspective the NCAA would probably want Washington to win the Pac 12 tournament and somehow get to Spokane, or for either Gonzaga or Washington St to pull two upsets if they make the tournament. |
If that's truly the case, then Creme's rationale is nonsense. His explanation is to increase the ticket sales in Spokane. If that's not going to happen anyhow, then there is no reason for any geographical priority and they ought to get sent to Oklahoma City or Albany or wherever competition principles dictate they belong.
I would find it just as outrageous if, for example, Baylor were to get sent to Greensboro as a 1 seed while Duke was assigned to the same region as a 2 or 3 seed. Might be good for ticket sales, but it would be completely unfair to the higher seed. |
Does Oregon State now have a chance to be a #1 seed? Conference tournaments are going to be very important to the last #1 seed as I think 3 of the #1's are all locked up. |
Oregon State probably has little chance at a 1-seed, as they lost last night by 11 to Stanford in Corvallis. Now it looks like Maryland or Tennessee. Or maybe Florida State or Louisville if they win the ACC tournament (assuming that they beat Notre Dame along the way). Oregon is presently 13th in RPI with the 50th toughest schedule. Seems as if a 2-seed is their seeding ceiling, They face Cal in Corvallis to finish the regular season and then have the PAC12 tournament. |
My B. I hadn't seen that they lost at that time. If Oregon State had won out their schedule and won the Pac-12 tourney, I would have thought they would have a shot at a #1 seed, but not now. The interesting thing will be Baylor/Tennessee for the final #1. If Tennessee only loses to South Carolina and Baylor wins the Big 12 regular season and tournament title, who gets the #1 seed? Then, does the committee put them in the same bracket? I think it needs to go in seeded order, the #1 overall seed gets the #8 overall seed in their regional and go from there, regardless of location. |
You must have missed that Baylor lost this week to Oklahoma as well.
I think Maryland is the most likely fourth 1 seed, with Tenn and the winner of the likely semi-final ACC tournament showdown between FSU and Louisville remaining as possibilities depending on how the last games sort out.
And whether you wish it or not, the women's committee does not use a strict S curve for seeding.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
Posts: 5423
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| Posted: 02/27/15 2:57 pm ::: |
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| Duke's loss at Georgia Tech was its third in a row, and the Blue Devils could be playing themselves out of hosting. |
I'd say that loss at GT makes that a fact unless they can reach the ACC tournament final game.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 02/28/15 12:59 am ::: |
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| ajdawg7 wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
I hope ajdawg7 and fs02 are right. The posts made me look into Oregon St attendance. The Beavers have essentially doubled their attendance from last season to 4000 per game. Tonight's game vs. Stanford and Saturday's game vs Cal should both draw well.
As the number 1 seed and the second closest team to Seattle the team should have a large presence at the Pac 12 championships. If 1000 OSU fans come to the Key Arena I'll gladly revise my estimate upward for the regionals.
One last point. Two years ago when Cal and Stanford were both in Spokane (along with LSU and Georgia), the locals showed up in force and made for decent attendance (6000 per game). |
It's still much easier for someone from Cal and Stanford to get to Seattle than from Corvallis. It's a 2 hour and change flight rather than a 4+ hour drive. |
I will be driving up from Carson City, NV (nearly 750 miles) so by the time I get to Corvallis I'll be 2/3 of the way. Since I will be there for four days I'd rather have my car. Besides this will let me see the OSU and UO campuses as well as the Salem owl (or at least the sign).
My point was that if OSU can't bring 1000 fans to Seattle, a 4 hour drive, why should I believe they will get more than 300 to take a 7 hour drive to Spokane? I certainly hope they do.
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ajdawg7
Joined: 19 Aug 2005
Posts: 479
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| Posted: 03/01/15 2:40 pm ::: |
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| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
| This assumes flying. Why do you assume Cal and Stanford fans are all wealthy? Or even LIKE flying, for that matter? |
It's a 12 hour drive (800 miles) from the Bay area to Seattle. Nonstop flights are $267 round trip. Unless you've got a vanload of poor students, it makes sense to fly. |
Exactly. I don't assume the fans are wealthy, but I've seen how well Cal & Stanford travel for years (Stanford perennially and Cal in the last 8-10 years with how good they've been). Winning's new to OSU and while the fan-base has grown considerably it's not to Cal or Stanford's level yet.
Regarding the Spokane regional, yes, Spokane's a longer drive, but of the 2 I'd rather attend the NCAAs than the conference tourney if I had to choose between the two. Even though Seattle has much, much more to do/see than Spokane.
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
Posts: 5223
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| Posted: 03/01/15 7:45 pm ::: |
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Can someone explain the factors that go into seeding other than RPI and Strength of Schedule? After today's games here is the RPI and SOS of potential 1 and 2 seeds. I have gone back and also added record vs. top 50 teams because ESPN keeps referring to this on their college broadcasts, so I presume it is another key variable.
Notre Dame: 28-2 record, #1 RPI, #3 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Tennessee: 25-4 record, #2 RPI, #2 SOS. 9-4 vs. Top 50
Baylor: 26-4 record, #3 RPI, #8 SOS. 8-3 vs. Top 50
South Carolina: 27-2 record, #4 RPI, #21 SOS. 7-2 vs. Top 50
Connecticut: 28-1 record, #5 RPI, #43 SOS. 8-1 vs. Top 50
Maryland: 27-2 record, #6 RPI, #35 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Iowa: 23-6 record, #7 RPI, #10 SOS. 10-5 vs. Top 50
Louisville: 24-5 record, #8 RPI, #17 SOS. 7-4 vs. Top 50
Kentucky: 21-8 record, #9 RPI, #1 SOS. 7-5 vs. Top 50
Florida State: 27-3 record, #10 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
Oregon State: 25-3 record, #11 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
It is basically assumed by all that Baylor can no longer be a #1 seed because of their 2 losses this week. But even with their 2 losses, they have the #3 RPI and their SOS is higher than every other team ranked 4-11 in RPI except for Kentucky. So in trying to understand why they are automatically out, what else is looked at, because I am just looking at RPI and SOS.
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
Posts: 4040
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| Posted: 03/01/15 11:51 pm ::: |
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| Durantula wrote: |
Can someone explain the factors that go into seeding other than RPI and Strength of Schedule? After today's games here is the RPI and SOS of potential 1 and 2 seeds. I have gone back and also added record vs. top 50 teams because ESPN keeps referring to this on their college broadcasts, so I presume it is another key variable.
Notre Dame: 28-2 record, #1 RPI, #3 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Tennessee: 25-4 record, #2 RPI, #2 SOS. 9-4 vs. Top 50
Baylor: 26-4 record, #3 RPI, #8 SOS. 8-3 vs. Top 50
South Carolina: 27-2 record, #4 RPI, #21 SOS. 7-2 vs. Top 50
Connecticut: 28-1 record, #5 RPI, #43 SOS. 8-1 vs. Top 50
Maryland: 27-2 record, #6 RPI, #35 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Iowa: 23-6 record, #7 RPI, #10 SOS. 10-5 vs. Top 50
Louisville: 24-5 record, #8 RPI, #17 SOS. 7-4 vs. Top 50
Kentucky: 21-8 record, #9 RPI, #1 SOS. 7-5 vs. Top 50
Florida State: 27-3 record, #10 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
Oregon State: 25-3 record, #11 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
It is basically assumed by all that Baylor can no longer be a #1 seed because of their 2 losses this week. But even with their 2 losses, they have the #3 RPI and their SOS is higher than every other team ranked 4-11 in RPI except for Kentucky. So in trying to understand why they are automatically out, what else is looked at, because I am just looking at RPI and SOS. |
Here are a few other factors:
1) Maybe they are considering records vs. the RPI top 25:
Notre Dame: 7-1
Tennessee: 4-4
Baylor: 3-2
South Carolina: 3-2
Connecticut: 4-1
Maryland: 3-1
Iowa: 1-2
Louisville: 3-4
Kentucky: 4-4
Florida State: 2-2
Oregon State: 4-2
That makes ND and UConn look more deserving, and Maryland and Oregon St. look good, too.
2) The all-important eye test
UConn looks the best by far, so they should be above Baylor (and every other team).
3) The "What have you done for me lately" category. Baylor has lost its last 2 games, whereas UConn has won 27 straight, Maryland 21 straight, and ND 14 straight.
4) The real SOS. Baylor has a tough SOS based on the RPI, but that's largely because almost the entire B12 conference achieved gaudy records by playing patsies OOC (giving mediocre teams high winning percentages), so the whole conference benefits. (Kudos to Texas and OK for not following this plan.) Baylor has only played 4 games against teams in Sagarin's top 25: #20 Syracuse, #24 Texas twice, and #25 Kentucky. No other top 15 team has faced fewer top 25 Sagarin teams (and Texas is likely to drop out tomorrow, leaving Baylor with only 2 games against top 25 Sagarin teams). The committee probably counted Baylor's weak schedule against them earlier when they left 1-loss Baylor out of the top 4 but put 3-loss Tennessee in.
Steven Bell has a great blog called the S-factor where he considers several factors that he perceives may influence who the committee selects for the dance. He has been tweaking his formula to better predict the field, and the input for his algorithm includes:
- Conference W-L % weighted against conference strength
- RPI
- Record against top 25 RPI teams
- Elite conference factor (see his site for a description)
- Record against top 50 RPI teams
- Overall record against NCAA Div. I teams
- Conference tournament performance
- Not having losses to sub-100 RPI teams
- Not having losses to sub-200 RPI teams
You should check out his blog if you haven't yet: http://collegewomenshoops.blogspot.com/
Note, however, that his algorithm is best at predicting inclusion to the tournament, rather than seeding. For example, there is no way in hell that UConn is a 3-seed, but UConn is being penalized for being a "mid-major" when they are clearly an exception to the mid-major rule!
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Durantula
Joined: 30 Mar 2013
Posts: 5223
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| Posted: 03/02/15 5:21 pm ::: |
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| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
| Durantula wrote: |
Can someone explain the factors that go into seeding other than RPI and Strength of Schedule? After today's games here is the RPI and SOS of potential 1 and 2 seeds. I have gone back and also added record vs. top 50 teams because ESPN keeps referring to this on their college broadcasts, so I presume it is another key variable.
Notre Dame: 28-2 record, #1 RPI, #3 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Tennessee: 25-4 record, #2 RPI, #2 SOS. 9-4 vs. Top 50
Baylor: 26-4 record, #3 RPI, #8 SOS. 8-3 vs. Top 50
South Carolina: 27-2 record, #4 RPI, #21 SOS. 7-2 vs. Top 50
Connecticut: 28-1 record, #5 RPI, #43 SOS. 8-1 vs. Top 50
Maryland: 27-2 record, #6 RPI, #35 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Iowa: 23-6 record, #7 RPI, #10 SOS. 10-5 vs. Top 50
Louisville: 24-5 record, #8 RPI, #17 SOS. 7-4 vs. Top 50
Kentucky: 21-8 record, #9 RPI, #1 SOS. 7-5 vs. Top 50
Florida State: 27-3 record, #10 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
Oregon State: 25-3 record, #11 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
It is basically assumed by all that Baylor can no longer be a #1 seed because of their 2 losses this week. But even with their 2 losses, they have the #3 RPI and their SOS is higher than every other team ranked 4-11 in RPI except for Kentucky. So in trying to understand why they are automatically out, what else is looked at, because I am just looking at RPI and SOS. |
Here are a few other factors:
1) Maybe they are considering records vs. the RPI top 25:
Notre Dame: 7-1
Tennessee: 4-4
Baylor: 3-2
South Carolina: 3-2
Connecticut: 4-1
Maryland: 3-1
Iowa: 1-2
Louisville: 3-4
Kentucky: 4-4
Florida State: 2-2
Oregon State: 4-2
That makes ND and UConn look more deserving, and Maryland and Oregon St. look good, too.
2) The all-important eye test
UConn looks the best by far, so they should be above Baylor (and every other team).
3) The "What have you done for me lately" category. Baylor has lost its last 2 games, whereas UConn has won 27 straight, Maryland 21 straight, and ND 14 straight.
4) The real SOS. Baylor has a tough SOS based on the RPI, but that's largely because almost the entire B12 conference achieved gaudy records by playing patsies OOC (giving mediocre teams high winning percentages), so the whole conference benefits. (Kudos to Texas and OK for not following this plan.) Baylor has only played 4 games against teams in Sagarin's top 25: #20 Syracuse, #24 Texas twice, and #25 Kentucky. No other top 15 team has faced fewer top 25 Sagarin teams (and Texas is likely to drop out tomorrow, leaving Baylor with only 2 games against top 25 Sagarin teams). The committee probably counted Baylor's weak schedule against them earlier when they left 1-loss Baylor out of the top 4 but put 3-loss Tennessee in.
Steven Bell has a great blog called the S-factor where he considers several factors that he perceives may influence who the committee selects for the dance. He has been tweaking his formula to better predict the field, and the input for his algorithm includes:
- Conference W-L % weighted against conference strength
- RPI
- Record against top 25 RPI teams
- Elite conference factor (see his site for a description)
- Record against top 50 RPI teams
- Overall record against NCAA Div. I teams
- Conference tournament performance
- Not having losses to sub-100 RPI teams
- Not having losses to sub-200 RPI teams
You should check out his blog if you haven't yet: http://collegewomenshoops.blogspot.com/
Note, however, that his algorithm is best at predicting inclusion to the tournament, rather than seeding. For example, there is no way in hell that UConn is a 3-seed, but UConn is being penalized for being a "mid-major" when they are clearly an exception to the mid-major rule! |
Thanks for the response. A few things:
I think they went away with the "last ten games" or any similar metric that examines recent play. Now all games are seen as equal, at least on the men's side.
I hope they don't use the eye test because it is too subjective. Who is on the selection committee, how many games do they watch, which games do they watch, and isn't that going to be biased for or against the teams that are televised a lot?
-"Real" SOS: From my understanding Sagarin, KenPom and other tools are not used on the men's side so I assume it is the same on the women's. The regular RPI is what I assumed was used, and Baylor ranks very high on that compared to the other 1/2 seed candidates
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
Posts: 4040
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| Posted: 03/02/15 6:40 pm ::: |
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| Durantula wrote: |
| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
| Durantula wrote: |
Can someone explain the factors that go into seeding other than RPI and Strength of Schedule? After today's games here is the RPI and SOS of potential 1 and 2 seeds. I have gone back and also added record vs. top 50 teams because ESPN keeps referring to this on their college broadcasts, so I presume it is another key variable.
Notre Dame: 28-2 record, #1 RPI, #3 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Tennessee: 25-4 record, #2 RPI, #2 SOS. 9-4 vs. Top 50
Baylor: 26-4 record, #3 RPI, #8 SOS. 8-3 vs. Top 50
South Carolina: 27-2 record, #4 RPI, #21 SOS. 7-2 vs. Top 50
Connecticut: 28-1 record, #5 RPI, #43 SOS. 8-1 vs. Top 50
Maryland: 27-2 record, #6 RPI, #35 SOS. 11-1 vs. Top 50
Iowa: 23-6 record, #7 RPI, #10 SOS. 10-5 vs. Top 50
Louisville: 24-5 record, #8 RPI, #17 SOS. 7-4 vs. Top 50
Kentucky: 21-8 record, #9 RPI, #1 SOS. 7-5 vs. Top 50
Florida State: 27-3 record, #10 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
Oregon State: 25-3 record, #11 RPI, #49 SOS. 5-3 vs. Top 50
It is basically assumed by all that Baylor can no longer be a #1 seed because of their 2 losses this week. But even with their 2 losses, they have the #3 RPI and their SOS is higher than every other team ranked 4-11 in RPI except for Kentucky. So in trying to understand why they are automatically out, what else is looked at, because I am just looking at RPI and SOS. |
Here are a few other factors:
1) Maybe they are considering records vs. the RPI top 25:
Notre Dame: 7-1
Tennessee: 4-4
Baylor: 3-2
South Carolina: 3-2
Connecticut: 4-1
Maryland: 3-1
Iowa: 1-2
Louisville: 3-4
Kentucky: 4-4
Florida State: 2-2
Oregon State: 4-2
That makes ND and UConn look more deserving, and Maryland and Oregon St. look good, too.
2) The all-important eye test
UConn looks the best by far, so they should be above Baylor (and every other team).
3) The "What have you done for me lately" category. Baylor has lost its last 2 games, whereas UConn has won 27 straight, Maryland 21 straight, and ND 14 straight.
4) The real SOS. Baylor has a tough SOS based on the RPI, but that's largely because almost the entire B12 conference achieved gaudy records by playing patsies OOC (giving mediocre teams high winning percentages), so the whole conference benefits. (Kudos to Texas and OK for not following this plan.) Baylor has only played 4 games against teams in Sagarin's top 25: #20 Syracuse, #24 Texas twice, and #25 Kentucky. No other top 15 team has faced fewer top 25 Sagarin teams (and Texas is likely to drop out tomorrow, leaving Baylor with only 2 games against top 25 Sagarin teams). The committee probably counted Baylor's weak schedule against them earlier when they left 1-loss Baylor out of the top 4 but put 3-loss Tennessee in.
Steven Bell has a great blog called the S-factor where he considers several factors that he perceives may influence who the committee selects for the dance. He has been tweaking his formula to better predict the field, and the input for his algorithm includes:
- Conference W-L % weighted against conference strength
- RPI
- Record against top 25 RPI teams
- Elite conference factor (see his site for a description)
- Record against top 50 RPI teams
- Overall record against NCAA Div. I teams
- Conference tournament performance
- Not having losses to sub-100 RPI teams
- Not having losses to sub-200 RPI teams
You should check out his blog if you haven't yet: http://collegewomenshoops.blogspot.com/
Note, however, that his algorithm is best at predicting inclusion to the tournament, rather than seeding. For example, there is no way in hell that UConn is a 3-seed, but UConn is being penalized for being a "mid-major" when they are clearly an exception to the mid-major rule! |
Thanks for the response. A few things:
I think they went away with the "last ten games" or any similar metric that examines recent play. Now all games are seen as equal, at least on the men's side.
I hope they don't use the eye test because it is too subjective. Who is on the selection committee, how many games do they watch, which games do they watch, and isn't that going to be biased for or against the teams that are televised a lot?
-"Real" SOS: From my understanding Sagarin, KenPom and other tools are not used on the men's side so I assume it is the same on the women's. The regular RPI is what I assumed was used, and Baylor ranks very high on that compared to the other 1/2 seed candidates |
Thanks for the response, Durantula. It's fun to discuss stuff like this. I didn't know that they ignored recent games.
Officially, they do not examine Sagarin, Massey, etc., but it's hard to believe that they completely ignore them. Manipulating one's RPI rating is easy, and the method is well-known. See the B12 nonconference schedules to see how it's done. If the committee honestly only considered the RPI, then UConn would not be a 1-seed, but actually they are the top 1-seed. You can attribute that to the eye-test, rating systems such as Sagarin and Massey (who not only have UConn ranked first, but have them as prohibitive favorites), or the polls, which are also supposedly NOT considered. Crème (and the committee) had Baylor as the 5th team on the S-curve back before they lost those 2 games, based on the fact that their resume was not as impressive as that of Tennessee, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and UConn (see http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12309469/ncaa-selection-committee-top-20-reveals-surprises). Note that Baylor's RPI was 2nd with a top 15 SOS at the time, but Baylor lacked wins against top teams. I think that correlates to Baylor's record against Sagarin's top 25, which now stands at 1-1 (Texas fell out of the top 25 after the loss to West Virginia). No other Sagarin top 25 team has played so few games against other top 25 teams except for mid-majors Princeton, Green Bay, and FGCU (http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php).
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
Posts: 5423
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| Posted: 03/02/15 7:08 pm ::: |
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The committee has stated that they employ several analytic ratings systems, RPI being one. RPI gets talked about most because after the brackets are announced much of the discussion is about the bubble teams and RPI is especially useful in comparing teams with multiple losses and few common opponents.
Two other factors used to compare the top teams are marquee wins and bad losses. In UConn's favor are wins over Notre Dame and South Carolina. I don't think any other team has 2 wins to match those.
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