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Fighting Artichoke
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ArtBest23
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 Posted: 11/21/14 9:48 am ::: |
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I feel dumber for having read that entire column.
I particularly like the "logic" that Stanford losing the next game means voters will stay with UConn at the top. Doesn't the fact Stanford lost at home to a lower ranked team indicate the opposite, that the team to which UConn lost is not as good as previously thought and it's a worse loss than believed at the time?
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pilight
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| Posted: 11/21/14 10:12 am ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
I feel dumber for having read that entire column.
I particularly like the "logic" that Stanford losing the next game means voters will stay with UConn at the top. Doesn't the fact Stanford lost at home to a lower ranked team indicate the opposite, that the team to which UConn lost is not as good as previously thought and it's a worse loss than believed at the time? |
Poll Logic and actual logic are only tenuously related
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ClayK
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| Posted: 11/21/14 10:38 am ::: |
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My default is always head-to-head, regardless of home/away, whatever. The scoreboard doesn't lie.
So right now, the order for me has to be
Texas
Stanford
UConn
But let's say Stanford loses a couple more games and UConn doesn't -- then the Huskies can move back ahead of Stanford. But if Texas stays unbeaten, I couldn't move UConn past Texas.
Of course, it will all play out on the court in March ... or before.
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Shades
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| Posted: 11/21/14 11:07 am ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| Assuming no more losses by these teams through Sunday, if I was an AP voter probably I think I would probably go with |
Art, you're stuttering. I'd be nervous too if I ranked TENN that high. Why do people perennially overrate TENN? You're impressed by their wins over Penn and Oral Roberts? TENN obviously wasn't feeling too confident coming into their season if you look at their weaksauce schedule. They start out with 4 home games, all cupcakes, and they travel all the way to Chattanooga for their first road game. Then they take take on TX at Austin, which they probably didn't figure would be a top ten team, so this one will have them nervous.
After that, another cupcake at home. Another cupcake all the way out in Nashville, and then their final worthy road game before the conference schedule at Rutgers. They had the guts to put an Ogwumike-less Stanford club on the schedule for a home game, but with a start time of 1:00 pm ET. That's the equivalent of 10 am west coast time. Stanford players will be droggy at best at that time. Weak weak weak. I can't respect TENN at this time, and try to convince me you aren't overrating by basis of name. Penn and Oral Roberts.....really?
At least we have the same 10 teams and the first two the same, which is a pretty remarkable feat.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/21/14 11:28 am ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| Assuming no more losses by these teams through Sunday, if I was an AP voter probably I think I would probably go with |
Art, you're stuttering. I'd be nervous too if I ranked TENN that high. Why do people perennially overrate TENN? You're impressed by their wins over Penn and Oral Roberts? TENN obviously wasn't feeling too confident coming into their season if you look at their weaksauce schedule. They start out with 4 home games, all cupcakes, and they travel all the way to Chattanooga for their first road game. Then they take take on TX at Austin, which they probably didn't figure would be a top ten team, so this one will have them nervous.
After that, another cupcake at home. Another cupcake all the way out in Nashville, and then their final worthy road game before the conference schedule at Rutgers. They had the guts to put an Ogwumike-less Stanford club on the schedule for a home game, but with a start time of 1:00 pm ET. That's the equivalent of 10 am west coast time. Stanford players will be droggy at best at that time. Weak weak weak. I can't respect TENN at this time, and try to convince me you aren't overrating by basis of name. Penn and Oral Roberts.....really?
At least we have the same 10 teams and the first two the same, which is a pretty remarkable feat. |
So I get it. You dislike Tenn. But regardless of where you think they belonged, the AP voters had them at #4. I may or may not have put them there, but working off of that poll, there is no concievable rationale for them dropping several spots after two 40 pt wins or being placed behind two one loss teams. You're eager to yell about their cupcake wins, but what has UConn done? They haven't beaten anyone. They killed a cupcake and lost their other game. I'm dying to hear an explanation of why that deserves a higher ranking.
What are you going to be saying about cupcakes when UConn begins its run of of 25 high school teams after Christmas?
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Shades
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| Posted: 11/21/14 11:41 am ::: |
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| beknighted wrote: |
| Shades wrote: |
ThIs is going to outrage Art, but I'll go
1. USC
2. UND
3. STAN
4. UCONN
5. DUKE
6. UT
7. TENN
8. MARY
9. KEN
10. TAMU |
I will be very surprised if Stanford ends up as high as 3 in the next round of polls. The Texas loss will be the thing most on the minds of the voters. |
Like myrtle said before, this is more of a personal placement over guessing how 38 less than passionate media types combine to pick the rankings.
SC seems a little better than they were last year while ND is a shell of themselves last year. Michigan St was probably overrated.
The Stanford win over previously untouchable UCONN should stay with them for at least a little while. The loss to TX wasn't all that gut wrenching. Orrange only played 8 min in the first half, some of the younger players seem to be letting down after the UConn win, and they let a win slip away. I still say Stanford is pretty worthy.
UConn's best win is UC Davis, so above where the coaches put them at #4 would be too much of a gift, but they're still the one of scariest teams out there.
Where I put Duke is where I suspect I'll differ the most with the voters. I'm projecting a bit because I'm liking them this year with the positive reports on EWill and the perennial McCallie haters actually feeling content with her. Texas probably deserves that #5 spot more in the minds of the voters.
Then I have TENN and MARY, which really haven't shown us enough to gauge them. Let them take a back seat until they do.
KEN beat BAY so maybe they should be higher, but BAY might be more of a shell than I expected.
TAMU's coach said it himself that they were overrated. I suspect the media types will read that and be swayed.
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Phil
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| Posted: 11/21/14 11:58 am ::: |
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Sorry Mel, but UConn will not be #1, nor should they be.
It will be (barring something weird happening between now and voting time, which cannot be fully discounted) either SC or ND. Those two were essentially tied in the first coaches poll. They flipped, due to ND looking strong that SC in their first game. But then ND followed up with a less than stellar win over MISt, while SC beat an admittedly weak Clemson team convincingly.
In the AP, there were votes for both ND and SC for #2. Probably 14 of the 37 voters picked ND second. They now have two more more, with mixed results. I expect more for ND, but if voting today, maybe not enough to put ND in first.
We will have SC at San Diego State, which is likely to tell us nothing. However, ND plays a decent Chattanooga team, which may be key. A very convincing win might push some voters into the ND camp. I think that will happen, but I now think it may not be enough, bit for reasons having little to do with basketball strength. I think the writers will find the SC in first place a better story line than ND, and that may be enough to put SC in the top spot.
ND will be close behind.
Texas will move up, but not to #1.
The big questions will be whether Stanford stays ahead of UConn (I think they should) and whether TAMU or TAMU and TN move ahead of one or both.
I think Texas moves up maybe to fifth
One option:
SC
ND
Stanford
UConn
Texas
TN
TAMU
Duke
MD
UNC
Another option
SC
ND
Texas
TN
TAMU
Stanford
UConn
Duke
MD
UNC
The second option makes more sense, but I doubt it will happen.
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Shades
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GEF34
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| Posted: 11/21/14 12:59 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
Some people would vote for UConn regardless of who beat them.That's just how it is. |
I was just thinking, maybe the 4 votes for Connecticut were submitted before the Connecticut-Stanford game, after all very few people here and around the world even thought Stanford had a chance.
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ArtBest23
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/21/14 1:34 pm ::: |
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| GEF34 wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
Some people would vote for UConn regardless of who beat them.That's just how it is. |
I was just thinking, maybe the 4 votes for Connecticut were submitted before the Connecticut-Stanford game, after all very few people here and around the world even thought Stanford had a chance. |
Maybe, but did you read the Mel Greenberg column Artichoke posted above? Greenberg thinks some voters are going to continue to vote for UConn as #1, so there may indeed be some people who stubbornly refuse to allow facts to get in their way.
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GEF34
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| Posted: 11/21/14 4:05 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| GEF34 wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
Some people would vote for UConn regardless of who beat them.That's just how it is. |
I was just thinking, maybe the 4 votes for Connecticut were submitted before the Connecticut-Stanford game, after all very few people here and around the world even thought Stanford had a chance. |
Maybe, but did you read the Mel Greenberg column Artichoke posted above? Greenberg thinks some voters are going to continue to vote for UConn as #1, so there may indeed be some people who stubbornly refuse to allow facts to get in their way. |
I just read it, and I could see that happening more in the AP or other media polls more than in the Coaches poll.
And a quick edit I should have said maybe some or all of the 4 votes.
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myrtle
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| Posted: 11/21/14 5:05 pm ::: |
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Texas beat Stanford on Stanford's home floor, so they really oughta be in front of them. I'm not convinced about TAMU yet, they need to beat somebody real first (more real than DePaul, who is good but not great). Of course the same can be said for other top teams.
SC
ND
Texas
TN
Stanford
UConn
TAMU
Good games coming up!
Will be interesting to see Texas and TN battle it out next week. Will Texas now have the proverbial let down and lose to UCLA?
TAMU gets Duke next week
Texas-TAMU in December should be telling.
Stanford - Tenn mid Dec.
UConn - ND in early December and UConn- Duke later and UConn - So Caro in January
Tenn also gets ND and TAMU early Jan. and of course So Caro gets to play Tenn and TAMU later.
Until league, it looks like SoCaro's only test will be at Duke in early Dec. so maybe they should be favored to come thru the next 6 weeks unscathed.
If anybody comes thru this whole morass without a loss they will clearly deserve #1. I expect everybody to get at least one loss and possibly the difference in seeding at the end of the year will be between one and two losses. Wahoo! Great stories yet to come. Bring 'em on!
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/21/14 5:53 pm ::: |
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| I'm no Ky fan but I'm surprised at the lack of respect they're getting here. That-come-from-behind win over Baylor was one of the better wins of this young season.
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Shades
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| Posted: 11/21/14 7:15 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| I'm no Ky fan but I'm surprised at the lack of respect they're getting here. That-come-from-behind win over Baylor was one of the better wins of this young season. |
Did you watch the game, Art? It was pretty sloppy play from both teams. Hardly an inspiring win.
I guess you were talking mostly to Phil, because he doesn't have them in the top 10, and myrtle just made a top 7. I explained my position on Kentucky better than you did on Tennessee, the slayers of Penn and Oral Roberts.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/21/14 7:23 pm ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| I'm no Ky fan but I'm surprised at the lack of respect they're getting here. That-come-from-behind win over Baylor was one of the better wins of this young season. |
Did you watch the game, Art? It was pretty sloppy play from both teams. Hardly an inspiring win.
I guess you were talking mostly to Phil, because he doesn't have them in the top 10, and myrtle just made a top 7. I explained my position on Kentucky better than you did on Tennessee, the slayers of Penn and Oral Roberts. |
It was for most of the game horrible by both teams. I was particularly disappointed in Baylor. I expected better from them, and in particular I expected Davis to step up into a starring role, which didn't happen.
But Ky played pretty well - better than I thought they were capable of playing in fact - during their comeback run. Considering the other options, I think that win earns them a spot in the top 10, while Baylor plummets out.
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beknighted
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| Posted: 11/21/14 9:53 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Poll Logic and actual logic are only tenuously related |
Exactly. Mel's column (which admittedly could have used some editing) simply points out all of the ways voters could analyze the situation.
I, for one, won't be surprised at all if some people decide to put UConn at #1, using some of the same arguments I've seen here.
In any event, using logical arguments to decide who *will* be ranked where (as opposed to who *should* be ranked where) is a mug's game in this situation - every voter has an individual way of looking at the facts, and you don't know what each voter will consider most important.
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Shades
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| Posted: 11/22/14 12:31 am ::: |
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| beknighted wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| Poll Logic and actual logic are only tenuously related |
Exactly. Mel's column (which admittedly could have used some editing) simply points out all of the ways voters could analyze the situation.
I, for one, won't be surprised at all if some people decide to put UConn at #1, using some of the same arguments I've seen here.
In any event, using logical arguments to decide who *will* be ranked where (as opposed to who *should* be ranked where) is a mug's game in this situation - every voter has an individual way of looking at the facts, and you don't know what each voter will consider most important. |
How useful is RPI at this time of year?
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Women.html
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 11/22/14 12:39 am ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| beknighted wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| Poll Logic and actual logic are only tenuously related |
Exactly. Mel's column (which admittedly could have used some editing) simply points out all of the ways voters could analyze the situation.
I, for one, won't be surprised at all if some people decide to put UConn at #1, using some of the same arguments I've seen here.
In any event, using logical arguments to decide who *will* be ranked where (as opposed to who *should* be ranked where) is a mug's game in this situation - every voter has an individual way of looking at the facts, and you don't know what each voter will consider most important. |
How useful is RPI at this time of year?
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Women.html |
Not at all.
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beknighted
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ClayK
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| Posted: 11/22/14 10:57 am ::: |
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How can Texas be ranked behind Stanford? The 'Horns beat Stanford -- unless you practice what the late great Joe Smith called "result nullification," Stanford has to be behind Texas.
If not, please explain ...
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 11/22/14 11:22 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
How can Texas be ranked behind Stanford? The 'Horns beat Stanford -- unless you practice what the late great Joe Smith called "result nullification," Stanford has to be behind Texas.
If not, please explain ... |
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Shades
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| Posted: 11/22/14 11:24 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
How can Texas be ranked behind Stanford? The 'Horns beat Stanford -- unless you practice what the late great Joe Smith called "result nullification," Stanford has to be behind Texas.
If not, please explain ... |
The last time Texas defeated an AP Top 10 opponent was then #4 Baylor, 58-55, on 2-1-2009 in Waco. This is the first time Stanford and Texas have been in the AP Top 10 at the same time. Texas is not a name you're used to seeing at the top of the charts in recent years. I wouldn't blame people for having a healthy dose of skeptism towards them. I am a bit. Is this just a head fake or anomaly or are they for real? Stay tuned and find out.
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beknighted
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| Posted: 11/22/14 11:46 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
How can Texas be ranked behind Stanford? The 'Horns beat Stanford -- unless you practice what the late great Joe Smith called "result nullification," Stanford has to be behind Texas.
If not, please explain ... |
I am not advocating this, and I think it makes more sense later in the season, but if there's a sufficient gap between two teams, voters often tend to think of an upset as partly a fluke, and so neither punish the higher team nor reward the lower team as much as you'd think the result would justify. If you want an extreme example, I seem to remember a #1 Duke team losing its first game of the season to a team that had no votes at all in the poll, and not dropping out of the top 5.
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