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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8234 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 07/17/14 10:50 am ::: What do the Geno tweets say about Asia Durr? |
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Now that we've analyzed the bejeepers out of Geno Auriemma's two tweets seemingly regarding Arike Ogumbowale's cutting out of UConn from her final five list, it's time to go even further out on the limb. If these tweets were made in response to Ogumbowale, can they be squeezed further to tell us something about the probability of Asia Durr's signing with UConn.
UConn had been recruiting both Arike Ogumbowale and Asia Durr, the two most prominent guards in the 2015 class. But could Auriemma reasonably have expected to get both? I doubt it, especially since he recruited four highly ranked guards from the 2014 class. Therefore, it would be a reasonable assumption that only one of those two 2015 guards was his primary target, his best hope, his basket of eggs.
Which one?
Well, the first of Auriemma's two tweets in Twittergate reads: "Stay tuned for my list of the 5 players I saw the past 7 days that I have zero interest in recruiting.... #whatajoke". This could be interpreted as evidence that Auriemma was not particularly interested in Ogumbowale and that he has all his cards on Durr. If he was mocking Ogumbowale's "press conference" in his second tweet, that could be further evidence that Auriemma had little interest in her.
But there's a counter-interpretation.
It starts with the premise that by the July before their senior year, a mere four months prior to the NLI signing deadline, most top recruits have decided on their final school and have probably visited it, unofficially if not officially. Durr has never visited UConn that I'm aware of.
In fact, Durr declined to visit UConn in April at the same time as Katie Lou Samuelson, Napheesa Collier and De'Janae Boykin, citing AAU commitments. In May she said, “I know, I should have gone but my schedule is so hard. I think I am going to schedule it (a visit to UConn) soon.” But she hasn't yet visited UConn.
So, how much interest has Durr showed in UConn? She still has chaff list of 13 schools decoying the media. Surely Auriemma has picked up on these signals, and perhaps has never had much expectations of success with Durr. Perhaps his eggs had been in the Ogumbowale basket after all.
There is evidence. UConn showed a lot of interest in Ogumbowale. Auriemma and Dailey made a home visit with her in September 2013, Dailey traveled all the way to Jakarta, Indonesia, to watch her play in the FIBA 3x3 tournament that same month, and Ogumbowale's father even discussed the details of academic course work with Dailey.
Thus, the counter-interpretation of Auriemma's Twittergate messages is that he had his cards on Ogumbowale, and that he was stunned to realize he wouldn't get Ogumbowale--or Durr--when he saw the Ogumbowale tweet rejecting UConn. In this mental state, he impetuously reacted with two mocking tweets out of frustration.
This is all a thin gruel of speculation, I know. But I've speculated both ways, and what else is a slow summer chat board for. |
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5424
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Posted: 07/17/14 2:14 pm ::: |
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How to turn a couple of tweets into a Broadway score. LOL
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5424
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Colerr
Joined: 16 Mar 2012 Posts: 569 Location: Missouri
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Posted: 07/17/14 3:22 pm ::: |
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linkster wrote: |
Quote: |
It starts with the premise that by the July before their senior year, a mere four months prior to the NLI signing deadline, most top recruits have decided on their final school and have probably visited it, unofficially if not officially. Durr has never visited UConn that I'm aware of.
In fact, Durr declined to visit UConn in April at the same time as Katie Lou Samuelson, Napheesa Collier and De'Janae Boykin, citing AAU commitments. In May she said, “I know, I should have gone but my schedule is so hard. I think I am going to schedule it (a visit to UConn) soon.” But she hasn't yet visited UConn. |
I can't see where Durr has visited any of her 13 schools so if Glenn is on the right track maybe she is planning on joining the army. |
I've seen a video where she said she's visited Rutgers, Tennessee, & I believe Duke. Don't know if she's visited any others.
EDIT: Here it is: https://socialcam.com/v/5t1tSkXp?autostart=true&fs=twitter&fsk=IEO8KHlI this was back in April.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5424
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Posted: 07/17/14 4:06 pm ::: |
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Colerr wrote: |
linkster wrote: |
Quote: |
It starts with the premise that by the July before their senior year, a mere four months prior to the NLI signing deadline, most top recruits have decided on their final school and have probably visited it, unofficially if not officially. Durr has never visited UConn that I'm aware of.
In fact, Durr declined to visit UConn in April at the same time as Katie Lou Samuelson, Napheesa Collier and De'Janae Boykin, citing AAU commitments. In May she said, “I know, I should have gone but my schedule is so hard. I think I am going to schedule it (a visit to UConn) soon.” But she hasn't yet visited UConn. |
I can't see where Durr has visited any of her 13 schools so if Glenn is on the right track maybe she is planning on joining the army. |
I've seen a video where she said she's visited Rutgers, Tennessee, & I believe Duke. Don't know if she's visited any others.
EDIT: Here it is: https://socialcam.com/v/5t1tSkXp?autostart=true&fs=twitter&fsk=IEO8KHlI this was back in April. |
I think she also mentioned she visited Maryland. Thanks for the info. My guess is she picks the Irish, aka Guard U.
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Oldfandepot2
Joined: 05 Jul 2013 Posts: 996 Location: Northeast
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Posted: 07/17/14 4:55 pm ::: |
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Social networks are dangerous indeed. At some point no matter what, evidentially, particularly if your a high profile individual a post will come back to bite you in the ass.
For most who post it is akin to a 4 year old with a lit match looking down the spout of a gasoline can.
_________________ Cave Canem!
We must listen to each other no matter how much it hurts. Bishop Desmond Tutu.
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012 Posts: 4053
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Posted: 07/17/14 5:04 pm ::: |
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Oldfandepot2 wrote: |
Social networks are dangerous indeed. At some point no matter what, evidentially, particularly if your a high profile individual a post will come back to bite you in the ass.
For most who post it is akin to a 4 year old with a lit match looking down the spout of a gasoline can. |
To what are you referring, oldfan?
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012 Posts: 4053
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Posted: 07/17/14 5:45 pm ::: |
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Glenn, I find your post very interesting, and here are some random thoughts on the subject. Given UConn's 2014 class was composed completely of elite guards/wings, it is not surprising that Geno went after size in 2015. Despite that, Lou and Napheesa may still take minutes at the 3. Thus it seems reasonable that the any guard considering UConn might question how soon they would see the floor. The typical argument is that any guard concerned about minutes is not UConn material, as they either lack the team-first mentality or they lack confidence in their abilities. But it is simply human nature to wonder such things and worry about minutes, especially if you look at the quantity and quality of elite guards in the preceding class.
It seems like Geno went after 3 guards in this class. Haley Gorecki visited with Lou, Napheesa, and Dejanae in April but later chose Duke. Arike and Asia were probably higher on Geno's guard list anyway, but now Arike has ruled out UConn. If Asia doesn't select the Huskies, Geno doesn't get a guard this year, but why would that really bother him? He already got his post in Butler (transfer) and his 3/4's with his trio of highly regarded 2015 verbals. How much more could he hope for? If he was actually angry with Arike's post (and it seems that way), then it may indicate that he's afraid that Durr is not likely either.
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Oldfandepot2
Joined: 05 Jul 2013 Posts: 996 Location: Northeast
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Posted: 07/17/14 6:01 pm ::: |
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Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
Oldfandepot2 wrote: |
Social networks are dangerous indeed. At some point no matter what, evidentially, particularly if your a high profile individual a post will come back to bite you in the ass.
For most who post it is akin to a 4 year old with a lit match looking down the spout of a gasoline can. |
To what are you referring, oldfan? |
Just in general, it seems like and it probably seems like that because its true as everyday some is being called out for posting something or doing something on the social networks. Today on the local sports talk radio Napier was called out for defriending Labron James on Twitter.
_________________ Cave Canem!
We must listen to each other no matter how much it hurts. Bishop Desmond Tutu.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 07/20/14 8:35 am ::: Re: What do the Geno tweets say about Asia Durr? |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Now that we've analyzed the bejeepers out of Geno Auriemma's two tweets seemingly regarding Arike Ogumbowale's cutting out of UConn from her final five list, it's time to go even further out on the limb. If these tweets were made in response to Ogumbowale, can they be squeezed further to tell us something about the probability of Asia Durr's signing with UConn.
UConn had been recruiting both Arike Ogumbowale and Asia Durr, the two most prominent guards in the 2015 class. But could Auriemma reasonably have expected to get both? I doubt it, especially since he recruited four highly ranked guards from the 2014 class. Therefore, it would be a reasonable assumption that only one of those two 2015 guards was his primary target, his best hope, his basket of eggs.
Which one?
Well, the first of Auriemma's two tweets in Twittergate reads: "Stay tuned for my list of the 5 players I saw the past 7 days that I have zero interest in recruiting.... #whatajoke". This could be interpreted as evidence that Auriemma was not particularly interested in Ogumbowale and that he has all his cards on Durr. If he was mocking Ogumbowale's "press conference" in his second tweet, that could be further evidence that Auriemma had little interest in her.
But there's a counter-interpretation.
It starts with the premise that by the July before their senior year, a mere four months prior to the NLI signing deadline, most top recruits have decided on their final school and have probably visited it, unofficially if not officially. Durr has never visited UConn that I'm aware of.
In fact, Durr declined to visit UConn in April at the same time as Katie Lou Samuelson, Napheesa Collier and De'Janae Boykin, citing AAU commitments. In May she said, “I know, I should have gone but my schedule is so hard. I think I am going to schedule it (a visit to UConn) soon.” But she hasn't yet visited UConn.
So, how much interest has Durr showed in UConn? She still has chaff list of 13 schools decoying the media. Surely Auriemma has picked up on these signals, and perhaps has never had much expectations of success with Durr. Perhaps his eggs had been in the Ogumbowale basket after all.
There is evidence. UConn showed a lot of interest in Ogumbowale. Auriemma and Dailey made a home visit with her in September 2013, Dailey traveled all the way to Jakarta, Indonesia, to watch her play in the FIBA 3x3 tournament that same month, and Ogumbowale's father even discussed the details of academic course work with Dailey.
Thus, the counter-interpretation of Auriemma's Twittergate messages is that he had his cards on Ogumbowale, and that he was stunned to realize he wouldn't get Ogumbowale--or Durr--when he saw the Ogumbowale tweet rejecting UConn. In this mental state, he impetuously reacted with two mocking tweets out of frustration.
This is all a thin gruel of speculation, I know. But I've speculated both ways, and what else is a slow summer chat board for. |
Valid speculation, imo, and welcome in July.
Here's hoping UConn gets Durr.
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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Oldfandepot2
Joined: 05 Jul 2013 Posts: 996 Location: Northeast
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Posted: 07/20/14 11:58 am ::: |
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I think IMHO, Notre Dame gets Asia Durr.
_________________ Cave Canem!
We must listen to each other no matter how much it hurts. Bishop Desmond Tutu.
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Ladyvol777
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 248
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Posted: 07/21/14 7:47 pm ::: |
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Asia Durr is going to Tennessee
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FollowtheCardinalRule
Joined: 12 Oct 2011 Posts: 5153 Location: Denver
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Posted: 07/21/14 8:35 pm ::: |
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Ladyvol777 wrote: |
Asia Durr is going to Tennessee |
Based on what?
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8234 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 07/22/14 12:05 pm ::: |
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My general rule of thumb is that, by the mid-spring of their junior year in high school, a top recruit will go to a school they have visited.
This rule of thumb may not apply to recruits who live far away from their preferred school and have families that cannot afford the expense of an unofficial visit. Now, however, official (paid-for) visits--which previously could only be made during a recruit's senior year--can be made as early as the Thursday in April following the women's national championship game.
If we can accurately reconstruct Ogumbowale's and Durr's visits to date, I'd favor one of those schools. |
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ridor
Joined: 18 Oct 2005 Posts: 1055 Location: Frederick, Maryland
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Posted: 07/25/14 4:05 am ::: |
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Do you know why Geno tweeted like that? Sure, you DO know why he did do that. I'm not going to explain this - you can tell us what it is. Duh.
R-
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PhillyCat
Joined: 18 Jun 2012 Posts: 226
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Posted: 07/27/14 6:35 pm ::: |
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I don't believe there should necessarily be any significance attached to schools Durr has already visited as her parents said those visits were after her freshman year. I'm told that some of the coaches recruiting Durr are looking forward to a little more clarity from the family on which are her top schools.
I'm sure the UConn staff expected to make Ogunbowale's final five but I'd be surprised if they thought they had a good shot at landing her.
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PhillyCat
Joined: 18 Jun 2012 Posts: 226
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Posted: 07/27/14 7:42 pm ::: Re: What do the Geno tweets say about Asia Durr? |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
There is evidence. UConn showed a lot of interest in Ogumbowale. Auriemma and Dailey made a home visit with her in September 2013, Dailey traveled all the way to Jakarta, Indonesia, to watch her play in the FIBA 3x3 tournament that same month, and Ogumbowale's father even discussed the details of academic course work with Dailey.
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To be clear, Dailey didn't travel "all the way" to Indonesia just to watch AO play; Katie Lou also played on that 3x3 team.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 07/27/14 7:57 pm ::: Heard same |
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Don't think AO ever seriously considered Uconn and probably same from them. I think Duke was more a contender and I wonder why she went cold on them. Everyone thinks Uconn has moved on to 2016 which makes sense.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 07/27/14 9:10 pm ::: |
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Reportedly Geno was in Chicago to watch and recruit her at a Nike tournament just a couple of days before she chopped UConn from her list. There is zero chance he would have expended that time and effort if he didn't want her and believe he had a good shot at landing her.
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PhillyCat
Joined: 18 Jun 2012 Posts: 226
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Posted: 07/28/14 10:37 am ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
Reportedly Geno was in Chicago to watch and recruit her at a Nike tournament just a couple of days before she chopped UConn from her list. There is zero chance he would have expended that time and effort if he didn't want her and believe he had a good shot at landing her. |
He was in Chicago briefly but left that tournament early to travel to Tenn to watch Dangerfield play. He wasn't at the championship game with all of the other coaches recruiting AO. That was certainly a sign to most who follow recruiting. I've been told for 12 months that UConn had no chance with AO; maybe I have better sources than Geno. But Geno certainly wanted AO, no doubt about that.
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